Eric Quinn

I really hate this attitude of "People had higher expectations, so its gross is automatically disappointing." As the guy who did the 400M club for Poppins, I didn't think it was definitely going to do it no matter what. It seemed like a longshot, where everything had to go right. But it's still one of the highest-grossing musicals ever, is seeing great legs and word of mouth, and will be profitable in the end. Could it have done better? Sure. But we shouldn't disparage a $200M+ grosser because of a couple overambitious predictions. People here thought Deadpool 2 was going to increase from its predecessor and make over $150M on its OW. It didn't. But are we really going to argue that it didn't have an impressive run either way? People were also spouting that Aquaman would cross $400M and be a mini-Jurassic World. That doesn't seem like it's happening either, yet y'all are silent and aren't talking about people overestimating it. HMMMMMMMMM.

Han...what are you thinking?

April 12 After: Fifty Shades for teens? Gross. Anyways, this is a YA adaptation, from a director I’ve never heard of, with a writer best known for episodes of Mom and Two and a Half Men, and starring a cast of D-listers. This is all yikes. 5/10 (2x) Hellboy: The recent trailer, as well as the “Legendary AF” marketing makes the movie seem like the del Toro movies, but with no soul or charm. So with that said, who exactly is this movie for? Fans of the first two movies won’t care about this reboot, while the brand isn’t anything exciting to general audiences. With Shazam already playing and Avengers down the road, this is going to be lost in the shuffle, just like The Golden Army. Sorry David Harbour. 15/35 (2.33x) Little: Will Packer’s been a consistent success-maker for a few years, and the reverse Big/13 Going on 30 premise seems cute. It won’t do amazing, but it will find a decent-sized audience and be good counterprogramming. 18/60 (3.33x) Missing Link: It’s Annapurna’s first animated release, as well as Laika’s first film free from Focus’ clutches. I don’t see this doing much better than their previous offerings, especially with Annapurna being Annapurna and the mediocre first trailer. Add in stop-motion, and the film seems like it will be more diminishing returns. Sorry Travis Knight. At least Bumblebee’s doing okay for ya. 10/35 (3.5x)

April 5 The Best of Enemies: With Queen Taraji and Sam Rockwell in the cast, there could be some interest based on that pairing. The trailer’s effective and interesting enough, so it could work as good drama counterprogramming, especially if reviews are solid. 15/50 (3.33x) Pet Sematary: This is the first film attempting to capitalize on the success of IT. I don’t know what expectations on BOT are, but I feel like it’ll disappoint. The teaser didn’t seem like it caught on at all, and it’s not really that popular of a King story to begin with. Plus with La Llorona two weeks later, this won’t have great legs. Sorry Lithgow 25/65 (2.6x) Shazam!: I've seen a couple of 400M predix thrown around for Shazam here and there. Personally I don't see it. This seems like it’ll be the Ant-Man of the DCEU. Not a bad thing, mind you. It seems more family-oriented than all of the other films, which will help it when it comes to legs. The actual trailer is pretty funny, and the marketing is appealing to both fanboys and families. But I don’t think it will have a giant opening, since I do think some people might find the concept and trailers to be a tad juvenile. It also has a lack of connection to the other DCEU movies. I’d argue stuff like Wonder Woman and Aquaman benefited from being introduced in BvS and JL to familiarize audiences with these interpretations. However, good word and family appeal will really help deliver strong legs a la Ant-Man, and its opening should still be mighty strong. And while Avengers could dampen its late legs, it's still got more or less three weeks all to itself. 80/240 (3x)

Wait for Endgame

March 30 Captive State: Ashton Sanders is coming to sweep me and my indie twink-lovin' ass off my feet (Still love you Chalabae). Anyways, this has a pretty cool concept, and a good cast and crew. The trailers are mysterious, but not quite as effective as something like Us. It'll be a mild hit, but likely a cult classic down the line. 13/40 (3.08x) Dumbo: Disney’s really going all in on live-action remakes this year, and this will be a great kick-off (it also looks like the only one that will be any good ). The trailers are great, Dumbo looks adorable, and it seems like a real crowd pleaser. Views on YouTube are also strong, as the second trailer has already beaten out Mary Poppins Returns in terms of views. It also has baby elephants. That's the best hook for any movie. The downside, however, is the family competition, with Captain Marvel and Shazam surrounding it. But it does have the benefit of being a great option for kids not interested in superheroes. Yes, they do exist. Although Wonder Park could complicate things if it turns out to be a hit. A run similar to Cinderella seems like an obvious thing to go for. 60/205 (3.42x)

March 22 Five Feet Apart: I got the trailer for this in front of Fantastic Beasts, and I was genuinely surprised at how enjoyable and charming this looked. There’s also not much out for teens outside of Captain Marvel, so this could find a comfortable niche for this demographic. A Love, Simon run seems likely here. 12/40 (3.33x) Greyhound: I'm not exactly sure if this is coming out on this release date. We should have gotten a trailer by now. But I'll just put it here anyway. A trailer in January might happen, ya never know. The film, a WWII-set war drama featuring Tom Hanks released in March reminds me of The Monuments Men back in 2014. An adult counterprogrammer early in the year with a famous actor. So, around that number. 20/75 (3.75x) The Informer: Rosamund Pike? Yeah. Joel Kinnaman? No. The lack of starpower and the generic plot makes this seem like a no1curr kind of flick. 6/15 (2.5x) Where’d You Go, Bernadette?: Bit hard to use other Linklater movies since they opened in limited release instead of wide, but this has a cool cast, and potential good reviews should help generate a little bit of interest. Although with Annapurna being Annapurna, who knows what will happen? Probably results slightly better than Tully, although it'll probably be more of a crowd-pleaser. 5/20 (4x)

https://deadline.com/2018/12/tom-hanks-sony-mister-rogers-film-title-1202526563/ Now titled A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I loved the hell out of Can You Ever Forgive Me, so I’m hyped for this.

🤔

I meant in that two giant openers back to back.

March 15 Us: I GOT FIIIIIIIVE ON IT. So obviously these predictions are inflated by the recent trailer. But I don't care, because I legit believe this will be a breakout. On Christmas, the movie was trending for a whole day and invaded people's Twitter feeds in a way that hasn't been seen since IT back in 2017. Trailer views on YouTube aren't like IT, but for a completely original horror film, the fact that it was able to approach more than 7.4M after two days is mad impressive. Outside of that, the actual hook of evil doppelgangers is interesting and exciting, while the trailer is both scary and intriguing at the same time, with people already spouting theories about the rabbits and the kid's mask. And with Jordan Peele and the success of Get Out, the film already has appeal to more than just horror or Blumhouse fans. People into the prestige of Peele will be into it. Genre fans will be into it. Black Twitter will be into it. It just seems it will have a strong sense of four-quad appeal and bring in all types of audiences in a way few horror movies can. Expect a JW/IO situation here with Captain Marvel and this. 80/250 (3.12x) Wonder Park: Well, this is a long time coming, isn’t it? It was initially slated for March 2019, then moved forward to July 2018, then to August 2018, and now back to its original release date. Meanwhile, the film’s former director would later be fired from the project due to sexual misconduct, with the new director being David Feiss, the creator of Cartoon Network’s Cow and Chicken of all things. And somehow, this mess is supposed to lead into a Nickelodeon animated series later on down the road. Admittedly, the initial teaser did make things seem a touch promising quality-wise. But then trailer 2 came along and introduced the “chimpanzombies.” Yeah. Otherwise, it looks utterly generic and uninteresting. With Dumbo and Shazam coming up, as well as Captain Marvel playing next door, I could see many families saving their money for those more appealing projects. Good luck Nickelodeon on this turkey, because this probably won’t reach Jimmy Neutron levels. Even Barnyard levels feel like a stretch. 18/60 (3.33x)

March 8 Captain Marvel: Okay. Now we’re getting to the big boys. Ever since her brief reveal in Infinity War, this film has been set to be a smash when it comes out. Being the first solo female-led film in the MCU will certainly give it good hype, and while some people aren’t into the trailers, it still managed to get really strong views and many seem to like what they see. The intergalactic setting and visuals help out too. Plus, like Wonder Woman, this seems like it will be an empowering film for a demographic largely ignored in the superhero genre. It might also benefit if the film plays an integral part in the story of Avengers: Endgame. The International Women’s Day release date helps it too. Basically, this has everything going for it. This obviously won’t be as big as Black Panther, but this will still be huge, and expect Brie Larson to at least be in the top 5 March OWs 130/355 (2.7x)

March 1 Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral: This should do solid, mid-range levels for Perry. Part of what made the first Madea Halloween so big was because there was a three-year gap between Madea projects. It's smaller, but with a 17-month or so gap since Boo 2!, that’s a decent amount of time for audiences to be interested in another Madea adventure. It’s also slated to be the last Madea film, so if marketed in that way, there could be kind of a finale factor here. 25/57 (2.28x)

In the Speakeasy forum.

Alita and HDD are opening on a Thursday, so this is a 5-day prediction. Isn't It Romantic opens on a Wednesday, so this is a 6-day prediction.

I thought you said you were done with this forum after stating Snyder haters were going to hell.

Jimgang made me go high. Jimgang and their long-winded rants terrify me.

It couldn’t be better than this.

Uglydolls > Endgame

February 22 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World: Here’s a fun fact: I’ve gotten the latest trailer three times in the theatre, and all three times they’ve made me teary-eyed and emotional. So yeah, I’m really excited for this movie. But do I think most people are? This is going to be Universal’s first Dreamworks film, and we know how well Universal has done with Illumination in the past few years. However, this has a lot going against it. For starters, this is coming out five years after the last movie, which is the worst time a sequel can be released. Far enough from the last movie people need to be reminded it exists, not so far enough that it becomes nostalgic. And with the second film already being an underperformer, that doesn’t help matters. To say nothing about the slew of competition it will deal with, including Lego, Captain Marvel, and Wonder Park. However, don’t mistake my tone. This will still be a decent hit, and at the very least, Universal’s marketing has gone in the right direction, with 28M+ views for its first teaser and pretty solid views for the full-length trailer (6.5M+ views. Not amazing, but still impressive). Hopefully like with Illumination, the film's advertising will keep on trucking well into the next couple of months. With the movie opening so early overseas (Australia/New Zealand are getting it next weekend), this should hopefully lead to good reviews as well. Kung Fu Panda 3 numbers seem like a safe range for this movie, which would be a solid ending to a great trilogy and a step in the right direction for Universal’s new animation studio. 43/145 (3.37x) The Rhythm Section looks like it'll be dumped on Netflix than even making it to theaters, so I'm just gonna skip that.

Sigh...well, guess I'll get it over with. February 15 Alita: Battle Angel: Ho boy, can't wait to be hounded by a bunch of weirdos who have a fetish for 10 ft. tall blue people. Exclusively Jimgang, I will be attacked by in this thread? Let's see what happens. Perhaps Marvelites or TLJ haters might be even worse. Anyways, the second delay for the project, this has sacrificed Christmas legs for a Valentine’s Day opening and weaker competition. So where does this go box office wise? I’ll admit I had no idea how the film would do in July. I had no idea how the film would do in December. And guess what? Still have no idea how the film will do in February. The delays certainly don’t help the film’s buzz, and it seems like a film that only Cameron die-hards care about and nobody else. But the marketplace won’t have any action films available, and James Cameron still has enough pull and a passionate fanbase. I’m going to say this will cross the century mark, even if by a slight amount. It's not anything good, but it won't be anything terrible, especially if it's a hit overseas. (btw if you Cameron fans are gonna be pissy at me over this, go step on a Lego) 35/50/110 (3.14x, 2.2x) Happy Death Day 2U: Happy Death Day was a modest hit when it came out last year, and this seems like it will see a slight increase. The first film has likely found a new audience in the ancillary market, and the trailers make the movie seem pretty fun. It also seems like a good date night option for teens. Won't set the box office on fire like the Blumhouse films surrounding it, but it'll find mild success. 20/30/65 (3.25x, 2.17x) Isn’t It Romantic: Not really sure what to do multiplier wise for this, because of it having a six-day weekend, but I guess I'll try? What matters is the total anyways. Okay, so Rebel Wilson? Aight. The director of Harold and Kumar 3 and The Final Girls? Okay. Adam Devine? Ugh. But the premise seems enjoyable enough, the trailer has a couple laughs, and it should be a good date night option for this coming Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend, especially since this will have a PG-13 rating. It'll definitely be successful, but expect What Men Want to be the bigger hit, in spite of its R rating. 15/30/75 (5x, 2.5x)