Eric the Clown

It's not coming out for another two years. Release dates can change on a dime.

Screw it. I'm throwing all my summer opinions today, let's go with my big, ultra-controversial hot take. Might even make a club if I have time. I think Haunted Mansion's going over Oppenheimer and Barbie (not combined of course). Universal's been pushing Oppy hard for months. I've gotten the trailer a bunch of times, TV spots have aired during NBA games and the Oscars, there's been a bunch of eye-catching posters. But no matter what, it's been stuck at 17% in Awareness over on The Quorum for months and months and months. That's a problem. Plus these adult counterprogrammers don't really have the same appeal as they used to and while I like Cillian Murphy, I feel like recasting him with a DiCaprio or a Cooper or a Bale would have gotten people more excited and make the ensemble cast stand out even more. Post-COVID, it's clear for non-franchise films that starpower is a much bigger deal than it was before. Hell, starpower helped out the new Scream and Creed movies. And while it's getting tons of memes online, The Quroum is also indicating that while people know a Barbie movie is coming out that people aren't excited in checking it out. And I still think that in the end this is a film that seems lost in terms of who it wants to aim itself towards, which isn't a good thing. Haunted Mansion meanwhile has a really fun trailer and a good cast and creative team behind it, plus the ride itself has a very devoted fanbase that seems on board with the movie's vibes. It's very dependent on good reviews, but I can see Mansion doing like 135M, while Oppy and Barbie do about 105M a piece.

Guardians, Flash, and Spider-Verse all oddly feel like wildcards now. Superhero fatigue has finally set in amongst even the diehard fanboys, so it does feel like all of these films could end up being disappointments. And Guardians 3 is looking like it'll barely get past Ant-Man 3's opening judging by the Tracking Thread. But, and this is weird to say, Flash and Spider-Verse do seem like they have more going for them and can offset fatigue. Spider-Verse I feel like it at least should match its predecessor, though it could just be another HTTYD 2 where everybody expects an obvious increase and then it just drops to like 150M for no discernible reason. And Flash does have Keaton nostalgia and it screening at Cinemacon early does indicate a lot of confidence. Plus DC fans should at least be invested enough to see how this movie sets up the new Gunnverse. So I can honestly see it at least going over Guardians, which is just insane to even say now.

Let's-a go!

TELL ME HOW IM SUPPOSED TO BREATHE WITH NO AIR

https://deadline.com/2023/04/box-office-super-mario-bros-movie-air-amazon-ben-affleck-1235318951/

Yeahhhh, I don't see Mission: Impossible getting there. I know people are crowing that TGM will cause a major boost, but Fallout had "greatest action movie of all time" level reception and it still only just did 220M. I can see an increase from that 220M, but this franchise has a ceiling and this seems to be more of the same. Not a pejorative or complaint creatively, just saying that it won't get people who aren't on board with these movies excited. I agree it won't go into the 500s, but I think getting past 400 or at least near it is a strong possibility. Which is close to what Mario's probably getting to. I have some Disney Adult friends and follow some people on Black Twitter and they are all very on board and are very excited for the movie because of Halle. Either wa, I would be surprised if this hit Cinderella/Maleficent numbers. Guess we'll see.

There's only been one that's come out in theaters since they reopened. Seems unfair to say they aren't big anymore. And regardless, any potential remake fatigue or Disney+ factor or whatever is mitigated by Halle's casting. Those "she looks like me" TikToks when the teaser dropped show this is a major event for tons of kids.

I can't wait to see Mr. Wolf and Mr. Shark and all my other favorite characters in this.

https://deadline.com/2023/04/aquaman-2-minecraft-wise-guys-color-purple-release-dates-1235318958/ Now coming on Christmas Day

Depends on a lot of course, but I still think Little Mermaid has potential, which I'm sure will lead to very measured and mature responses here. At the very least, I think it can get close to Mario.

Why is this actually well-animated tho?

Quorum Updates Air T-0: 37.44% Awareness, 5.72 Interest The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-0: 61.38%, 6.46 Paint T-2: 26.88%, 5.24 Mafia Mamma T-9: 28.21%, 5.34 Beau is Afraid T-16: 12.74%, 4.77 The Covenant T-16: 28.21%, 5.43 Joy Ride T-93: 21.3%, 5.07 Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-23: 21.59%, 5.04 Fast X T-44: 49.49%, 6.11 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-33: 53.45% Awareness, 6.54 Interest T-30 Awareness: 40% chance of 100M T-30 Interest: 80% chance of 100M DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

MUSHROOM KINGDOM HERE WE COME First of all, happy first day of Passover to all our wonderful and beautiful Jewish members. I’m sure you all are excited to partake in your annual viewing of both Uncut Gems and that one episode of Rugrats. And I’m sure you’re also excited to partake in an epic weekend consisting of 90s Nintendo and Nike nostalgia...and I guess Bob Ross nostalgia for you older folks. Yes indeed, after years and years of hype, Nintendo has finally returned to the world that is cinema. 1993’s first attempt was...flawed, but over the decades, Nintendo is a whole new beast. With tons of hit consoles and Mario upping itself with masterclass game after game after game, the franchise is the biggest it has ever been. And because of that, we're getting a new movie from the people who brought us the Minions. While reviews are...flawed, the film promises to be an incredible nostalgia dose for Nintendo fans and full of fan service for anybody who played a Mario game since 1985. Kids and adults are tracking like crazy, with this set to be a monster this Easter weekend. The real question isn't what it will make, but how high will it go? This will be an exciting weekend for us box office nerds and the industry, as video game movies are looking to be the hip new thing as superhero movies find themselves on the decline, and this will be the biggest kids movie in a long, long time. Will this momentum carry into the summer? Only time will tell. But for now, let's just enjoy the fun. But to have fun, you need rules. And so.... 1. ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS. NOT EVEN SPOILERS POSTED UNDER SPOILER TAGS. This rule also applies to other movies in theaters and films/shows recently released on streaming. So no Dungeons and Dragons spoilers, no Air spoilers, no Succession spoilers, etc. If you do spoil something here, you will be banned. No exceptions. 2. GOOD VIBES! Big weekends like these are supposed to be fun. So don’t be a party pooper and ruin things for everybody. No matter what the film opens to, it's still gonna make bank and plenty of Nintendo excitement to come. So just enjoy the ride. 3. THE REPORT AND IGNORE BUTTONS ARE YOUR FRIENDS. 4. IS OFF-TOPIC DISCUSSION OKAY? Off-topic discussions are okay in situations where there's downtime and there aren't any numbers, so long as they don’t get heated. But when numbers are coming up and things are getting busy, then keep off-topic things down to the minimum. And lastly... 5. DON'T BE A DICK. So with that out of the way... WITHOUT FURTHER ADO LET'S DO THIS SHIT

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 248 9147 45704 20.01% Total Seats Sold Today: 2,248 Comp 2.986x of Sing 2 (29.07M) 3.773x of Sonic 2 (23.58M) 8.323x of Lightyear (43.28M) 6.026x of Minions 2 (64.78M)

Air Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 88 773 11634 6.64% Total Seats Sold Today: 134 Comp 12.672x of The Last Duel (4.43M) 2.112x of House of Gucci (2.96M) 5.331x of Ambulance (3.73M) 2.811x of Unbearable Weight (2.35M) 1.049x of Elvis (3.67M) 0.683x of Bullet Train (3.14M) 3.612x of Amsterdam (1.99M)

https://deadline.com/2023/04/thor-love-and-thunder-box-office-profits-1235317525/

Dude's still making YouTube videos? Huh. Good for him I guess?

I PROMISE I WILL WATCH IT SOON OKAY

https://thequorum.com/ It's generally been a solid correlation in terms of how high the numbers are vs. how high the opening goes, though it's still very, very early for Barbie and the needle can change drastically. It's best to wait two months before release or sooner before making major proclamations.

I want to agree, but Dune still had a pretty set and understandable target audience it was pushing and had festival/awards cred behind it. I love the marketing so far, but I feel this doesn't really have an obvious target audience. Barbie's a property aimed at 5-year-old girls, which means it has a major uphill battle appealing to adults. And for kids, this is looking very meta and satirical and seems to have a lot of stuff that would go over a child's head. Lego Movie at least has a lot of goofy slapstick and silly characters. It feels like it's aimed at terminally online Film Twitter nerds like me, but that's not really the demo you should be targeting for anything. Plus while it has high awareness on The Quorum, the interest is near rock bottom. That's not really a good combo to be in. Would love to be proven wrong of course.