miketheavenger
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Posts posted by miketheavenger
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42 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
I always thought SW and MCU are the biggest brand in the cinematic world, it seems now we have to reevaluate their drawing power.
And, is spin off a necessity ?
60m is a hopeless figure...especially when JW2 is coming out in many countries next week
The MCU definitely is the biggest brand in the world. As if it wasn't clear before, Infinity War cemented that fact big time. Star Wars on the other hand...
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I'm just gonna take a random guess and say that the Church Fight in the first Kingsman film is number 1. Just because it's one of my personal favorites, but also because it's a true cinematic work of art IMO.
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Man, whatever happened to Memorial Day being one of the best times of the year for movies? Not only do we have a big opener underperforming again, but even the holdovers aren't doing too hot (the major ones at least).
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If Solo does go below 200m, Ant-Man 2 will definitely beat it. However, I don't think Ant-Man 2 is going to have a massive increase from the first one. I'm guessing it'll do around Thor 2 numbers (maybe a bit more domestically), which would be a really strong result.
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So, how low can Solo actually go with these early numbers? Is sub-400m WW actually a possibility?
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According to estimates, Sunday must've been very strong because almost everything increased
Deadpool 2: 725k
AIW: 185k (-55%)
Truth or Dare: 85k
I Feel Pretty: 55k
Rampage: 55k
That number for Deadpool 2 is only 6% lower than the first film and today is a national holiday, so it should continue to do well.
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That would be a really good Sunday drop for DP2. I still think legs aren't gonna be as bad as some people here think. Having seen the movie yesterday and laughing my ass off and hearing the audience laughing a lot as well, I would be very surprised if this had a sub-2.4x multi. WoM is gonna be strong IMO.
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9 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:
i hope it's prod budget is not much more than that. wondr's was 150 and i don't think this can go lower with all the underwater world creation but if it's between 150 and 200, then 175 odd dom and 350 odd os will at least break even.
According to IMDb, the budget is $160m, which if correct is quite a reasonable figure.
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2nd trend:
Deadpool 2 still at 650k, but unfortunately Infinity War decreased to just 140k (-66%).
Everything else below 100k.
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I'm still surprised that so many people thought IW would have a 50% drop or better this weekend. DP2 may be R-rated, but it's still direct competition. This drop was expected for me, especially since IW already burnt off such a huge demand over the past three weeks. Still, IW could be pulled out of theaters today and it would still be a monumental success. So everybody chill out!
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Previews are right where I expected them to be (maybe a tad higher). Again, opening around the first movie's gross would be really good considering that film had Valentine's Day and President's Day as a boost.
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IMO if it matches the first Deadpool's OW it would be a big success considering the first one opened on a holiday weekend.
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IW is definitely gonna drop hard against Deadpool 2, but Memorial Day should make up for that somewhat (though Solo is obviously also gonna take screens and families away).
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Unfortunately, almost everything a bit lower in the 3rd trend:
Infinity War: 400k (-15%)
Truth or Dare: 135k
Rampage: 117,5k
Liliane Susewind: 95k
I Feel Pretty: 95k
Jim Knopf: 75k
Sherlock Gnomes: 42,5k
Early Man: 30k
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Expected Friday number. If it stays at 15.5m, the scenarios for the weekend are IMO:
Pessimistic scenario:
15.5m Friday
24m Saturday (+55%)
15.6m Sunday (-35%)
55.1m weekend (-52%)
Realistic scenario:
15.5m Friday
25.6m Saturday (+65%)
17.9m Sunday (-30%)
59m weekend (-48.5%)
Optimistic scenario:
15.5m Friday
27.9m Saturday (+80%)
20.9m Sunday (-25%)
64.3m weekend (-44%)
No idea if/how Mother's Day will affect it, but right now I'm thinking right around 60m seems likely. Also Friday could be higher, of course.
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Man, this constant useless back-and-forth about IW's numbers has become so tiresome so quickly. I can't wait for Deadpool and Solo to steal a lot of the attention away from IW so that these asinine discussions will finally stop.
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I agree Solo will make less than Rogue One (probably quite a bit less) but it's still going over 300m, likely over 350m. While that's not an event-movie gross, it's still pretty big.
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The next few weeks all will contain a holiday and a bridge day, so legs should be fine. It will also to a lesser extent help Deadpool 2 and Solo.
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Again, this drop is only disappointing if you expected IW to follow BP or TFA's runs. These ridiculous "disappointments" claims have happened with so many films in the last four years since I've been a member of this forum. You would think we would've learned by now, but nope.
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Looks like Saturday didn't mirror the other MCU films as much as I thought. Interesting fact btw: After this weekend, Disney is gonna own the top three opening weekends and the top three second weekends ever. And 2019 is only gonna get bigger.
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I think the reason why IW had a lower Friday increase than the other Marvel mega hits is because its weekdays were quite a bit stronger than those other films. We'll see if Saturday increase is also muted or if it will be huge like it's the case with most MCU films. I'm leaning towards the latter.
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26 minutes ago, Michael Seng Wah said:
Wonder it has a shot at 2b WW if China breaks out of 400m alone.
Unless it has poor legs everywhere or China underperforms, 2b WW is almost locked. The question is whether it can beat TFA and Titanic WW.
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We'll have to wait for another Asgard update or official estimates, but given the numbers we have so far the range is 115-120m IMO. That would be a 53-55% drop, which would be quite a bit better than Ultron and CW. In fact, it would be a better hold than Winter Soldier, GOTG 1 and 2 and Ant-Man.
I don't want to hear anyone complain about this result.
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Now this is an older thing and I don't know if he changed his prediction closer to release, but I remember Ethan once predicting Infinity War would go under Civil War DOM. This is almost a bigger fail than his Deadpool prediction.
Not trying to hate on Ethan btw. We all make predictions for which we look stupid later on, but I just remembered this right now.
Weekend Thread....Please read the staff announcement pg 104 (Solo 29.2...DP 23.3...Adrift 11.5)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I think Solo flopping is only going to help the other movies coming out soon, most notably Ocean's 8, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2. I could see those films combining for $1b+ domestically.