miketheavenger
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Posts posted by miketheavenger
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SM2
SM1
TASM
TASM 2/SM3
Can't be arsed to do a complete MCU ranking, so I'll just do a top five:
GOTG 1/GOTG 2
Avengers
Civil War
Iron Man
Doctor Strange
Good number for Homecoming. Will probably end up between 115-120m and over 300m total.
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32 minutes ago, a2knet said:
If DM3 does 150+ in China, 700+ OS is looking good?
Dom is looking at 230+ imo (34 2nd weekend will leave it only 81 away from 230).
So even 240 is on the table Dom.
710-720 OS + 230-240 Dom = 940-960 WW.
Would make it a safe bet for #1 global summer crown.
And it would mean that it'll make nearly as much OS as BatB, which is mighty impressive IMO.
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If China goes completely crazy, is 1 Billion worldwide still possible? If it does 200m in China and 230m DOM, it needs 580m from other overseas markets. Certainly tough, but not impossible IMO.
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13m would be right around expectations. I do think that if this number holds, this won't touch 130m. It's hard to see it having a better IM than Wonder Woman. But 120m is still possible, though I'd bet on closer to 110m right now.
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2 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Despicable Me 3 $7,990,315
That's less than a 40% drop. If that's true, that's really good.
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1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
I assume this is exclusive to the 21st Century outside of Titanic? No Sixth Sense? No Greek Wedding? No Something About Mary?
Those were just the ones off the top of my head. I forgot about Greek Wedding, that belongs in there, too. Deadpool does as well, tbh. That film made more domestically than many people thought it would make worldwide lol. E.T. and Star Wars: A New Hope might also be up there, though that was a totally different era. Sixth Sense and Something About Mary were quite impressive, but I'm not sure how I would rank them. And if we talk about CBMs, how can one forget The Avengers and TDK? So many great runs over the years.
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I think WW is in the Top 10 of all-time box Office runs, but it doesn't make the Top 5 IMO. The Top 5 are in no particular order:
Avatar
Titanic
The Force Awakens
American Sniper
Frozen
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47 minutes ago, YourMother said:
I don't like the spot the sequel is in. It opens the same week as Pets 2, one week before Top Gun 2, and two weeks before the likely $200M+/$600M+ domestic hit: The Lion King.
Top Gun 2 will probably bomb, but I agree that competition could prevent it from being that much bigger. Same thing with Deadpool 2. If it wasn't for the ridiculous competition it's facing, I would be willing to bet for an increase for that film. Spidey 2 could move to August 2019, which only has SpongeBob 3, Creature from the Black Lagoon and a Disney live-action film (none of them should be problems unless the Disney film is Aladdin or Little Mermaid remake).
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I think Spider-Man is gonna end up between TASM 1 and Raimi's SM3 in terms of its domestic total and will have similar legs as GotG2. So probably a 100m/270m or 110m/290m run, which Marvel and Sony would be very happy with, I'm sure. I will say that if Homecoming has great word-of-mouth, the sequel could easily explode.
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So if the movies increase or even just stay flat today, that probably means that Wednesday will see some particularly nasty drops, right?
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Sorry, but Black Panther won't make anywhere near enough to win next year. That's gonna be between Infinity War, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Return of the Goldblum and maybe Han Solo (though I'm not sure on that). BP could crack the Top 5 if it has a WW style breakout. But to be honest, even if Panther "only" does 200/500 it will still be a success and will get a sequel (provided it's good), so don't be disappointed if it doesn't break out.
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I'm actually starting to think Valerian might not be a huge bomb @That One Guy. If audiences have the same response to it as critics, it could do somewhat well. I do think the budget is going to hinder it from being an unqualified success, though. I can't see it doing 400m+ WW.
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@WrathOfHan once again making a ridiculous prediction for DM3 as he's gloating about its underperformance. There's no way on this earth that DM3 will end up below 200m.
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1 hour ago, Brainbug said:
Do we get Weekend actuals today or Monday estimates as this is a long holiday weekend?
We most likely won't get actuals until Wednesday since many people have Monday and Tuesday off work.
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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
I hope this one won't gross another $billion
It definitely won't come close to a billion unless it goes absolutely bonkers in China (which it won't; will do much better than DM2 and Minions, but likely not much more than 100m). I think it's gonna end around 850m WW.
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3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
pretty unbearable to see T5 just drop that little.....no toxic WOM indicated here.
It benefited from movie-friendly weather (like all films), otherwise it would've dropped at least 40%.
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Yeah, that's a very disappointing opening for DM3. A movie can be a big success and still be disappointing. This is one of those cases.
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This is a rather random thing, but a few days ago I finally found out where Tele got his user name from because I was reading one of the adaptations of the Odyssee. Turns out that Telemachos is Odysseus' son. Again, random fact, but I'm happy that I solved this mystery for myself.
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Can we please stop with the Tomato Law meme? I don't even care whether it's accurate or not. It was funny at first, but it's really getting annoying now.
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Valerian could be like John Carter where it actually has a decent box office but still loses the studio money because of its budget. I think it's gonna be neither a complete disaster nor a breakout hit.
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1 hour ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:
Who would've thought that Ansel would have the best blockbuster of year?
Baby Driver isn't a blockbuster (unfortunately).
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DM3 will still make quite a bit more than Shrek 4 did and it has a much lower budget than that film, so Universal/Illumination surely won't be complaining. I do think Minions 2 is a bad idea. Take 5-6 years off after DM3 and then make DM4 with as much heart as the first film had and it will be huge again.
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It's still too early to tell where DM3 will end up, but I would be completely shocked if it fell below the first film's total. Its legs won't be that bad and its opening should be big enough to ensure 250m+.
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On 28.06.2017 at 9:52 AM, eXtacy said:
Reception seems really good and it has Iron Man
Should be hitting 600m OS no problems given the last did 500m
The last one had much better exchange rates, though.
Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Provided Rth's range holds, it could do something like this for the weekend:
47
40
30
From a 117m OW, it needs a 2.56x to crack 300m which is highly likely. 2.75x (same as Doctor Strange) gets it to 322m. 3x would mean 351m, though 3x multiplier for the sixth SM film seems tough even with great WOM.