Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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24 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:
Similar to my estimates too. An amazing success for an original film.
If we consider FROZEN semi-orginal, then this is the highest purely original film of all time.
Part of me wishes IO made more though..I think ZOO is a more important film that everyone should see especially today but IO is a deeper, better film overall.
I absolutely agree. But in the end it all came down to China. This will make 210m more in China. Taking that away IO would be a massive 140m ahead of Zootopia. Ahead both domestically and OS. And while zootopia got a completely empty marketplace everywhere, except for a little KFP3 competition in its third week in some markets which mostly failed, IO came out in the middle of summer and in fact in JW's very second weekend. Plus its concept was significantly more abstract, in other words it was more artsy, which is tougher to breakout. Zootopia may have messages but they are not really too subtle, quite relatable too infact in most places, and even without them its got a simple story that can stand up on its own. I know some people may not agree to this last point but the other two still stand irrefutable. So I'd say Inside Out's performance was much more incredible, excepting China.
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Whoa, a Chihayafuru and Erased live action version released this weekend? Whats the report on them? Are they any good (quality wise not box office wise)?
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So this is at 590m WW now.
We have a most probable 110m more from US (this will still require pretty good legs but the legs have been very good uptil now. More than this is quite unlikely because of the effect BvS will have. BvS has, more or less, a 4 quad appeal just like this plus it will be quite big so whatever you may say, it will definitely affect this and every other film)
We also have 50m more from China (for a 225m most probable final total)
We have a most probable 45m in UK (ofcourse it can breakout and make 60m or flop and not even get to 35 but we are talking about the most probable target)
We have 65m more from Japan (a little less than Big Hero 6 but that had very very good WOM and exceptional multiplier so straightoff assuming a similar total might be too presumptuous. 65 is already more than most movies have made in recent years. Boy and the beast was the highest grossing japanese movie last year and overall, almost, the third highest grossing movie (behind the likes of JW and SW) and also got very very good WOM. It made 47m$)
We have 15m more from Australia (with good WOM)
We have probably 8m more from Brazil.
Maybe another 10m from other markets left to open
Then, we have 35m more probably from remaining holdovers (21.5m weekend. BvS to follow. Easter close.)
That leaves us with a final total of - 930m. This is the most probable final total.
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5 hours ago, Purple Minion said:
Have a hunch it may not make 300M in the US. But I've been proving wrong before, so...
You really think so? Less than Man of Steel adjusted? That is impossible. 350m (less than deadpool and not much better than Guardians of the Galaxy) is the lowest this can get plus we have the tracking data to backup this so this is not simply an assumption. That would mean making just 400m OS after that for your 750m predict. Even with just 120m in China, which is more or less the lowest this might end at based on the presales data, only 280m would be left for the rest of the world. 280m. Fucking Cinderella made 270m OS-C! Tell me seriously if you really think this will not make more than it.
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The australian opening is more or less what I expected. With good WOM 20m should be achievable with the opening. The Brazil opening was quite lower than what I expected. Still, 900m WW is the lowest this may end at now even with somewhat less than expected totals in Japan and UK (around 50 and 40m respectively).
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5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:
I'd put Alice in the other category tbh, I'm expecting a big drop.
That big?
4 hours ago, Kung Fu Panda Tree said:The guarantees for 200M are Civil War, X-Men and Finding Dory, nothing else. The rest are all maybes.
Not even Suicide Squad? But anyway, I agree mostly. But a lot of these have quite better chances of actually doing it than of not doing it.
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Yeah this summer is wild. Never seen so many potential 200m grossers in the same season. There are 9 movies that have really high chances of crossing 200m and 3 with a very decent chance of doing so. For comparison the most 200m$ grossers ever in a year is 13.
Civil War
Alice
Apocalypse
Dory
Independence Day
Pets
Star Trek
Bourne
Suicide Squad
TMNT 2
The BFG
Warcraft
Kind of worrying, but very interesting, how they'll affect each other. I guess the latecomers might suffer somewhat.
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Absolute Masterpieces
1. Finding Nemo
2. Toy Story 2
3. Toy Story
4 Wall E
Flawless
5 Ratatouille and Inside Out
7 The Incredibles
8 Toy Story 3
9 Up
Really Fun
10 A Bug's Life
11 Monsters Inc.
12 Monsters University and Cars
Good/Allright
14 Cars 2
Haven't seen Brave completely yet, just in parts but I don't think its gonna make it higher than the really fun category.
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1. Civil War
2. Finding Dory
3. BvS
4. Jungle Book
5. Fantastic Beasts
6. X-Men Apocalypse
7. Suicide Squad
8. WarCraft
9. Dr. Strange
10. Assassin's Creed
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400m Dom
160m China
550m elsewhere
710m OS
1110m WW
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Isn't an OD in the 80s the most we can expect from it? Of course its not gonna cross DH2's OD.
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27 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:
What do you mean, not animated? Every single animal in there will be animated, no?
Not really. They are all CGI. Just like the Tiger from Life of Pi. You wouldn't call that animated would you? The animals are CGI but photoreal in this one. Thats what I am referring to as groundbreaking visuals. Have you checked out the trailer?
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7 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
You mean because Jungle Book is the Top movie of the last 50 years? That was a really long time ago and I don't know if you can translate this to 2016 ... my 5mil guess means already a lot today and I did base the number on the popularity of the stuff - maybe if the movie really hits the sweet spot it can start to soar; Minions had 7mil admissions which is an awful lot for animated family stuff these days (IceAge 4 had nearly the same number, seems to be a kind of ceiling). Frozen was wildly popular but didn't hit the 5mil mark. For bigger numbers you have to go back a bit - Ice Age 3 nearly hit 9mil total, as did Ica Age 2 ten years ago. So I'd say, yes, there's potential up to 7 or 8 mil, but atm I don't feel much excitement. 5mil would be a nice success for Disney.
But this is not animated. So the animated ceilings shouldn't apply to this. Apart from being Jungle Book, it also appears to showcase groundbreaking visuals. How will that affect the potential?
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6 hours ago, Planodisney said:
I don't see how this misses out on 900. I think it will do somewhat better in the UK than your estimate and somewhat better than your estimate for Japan. However the possibility is there for it to do considerably better in both those markets and slightly more in China and the U.S.
950 is a possibility and 1 billion if and only if it breaks out pretty big in both UK and Japan.
My estimate is 925 WW.
Of course of course. I think and hope so too. The numbers I gave were the near-low end for each and everyone of those markets. It can easily do more in the opening markets than I said and should complete with more in the holdovers. What I gave were the low ends. What I got was, as I said, the 'very low end'.
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51 minutes ago, Arlo245 said:
Oriental Dreamworks can't accept that Zootopia will pass their baby within the matter of days..
No they just want it to cross the Billion milestone and maybe be the first animated film to do so. Too late for the later part atleast.
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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:
Jungle Book? I would expect a lot, say 5mil admissions or more.
Kung Fu Panda 3 seems to struggle ... nr1 for the weekend is everything but a safe bet atm
So around 50m euro? Maybe more with the high 3D percent? I know thats a lot but shouldn't it be closer to atleast Spectre given Jungle Book's status here?
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1 hour ago, Arlo245 said:
It has already surpasses Wreck-It Ralph's after only being out for just over a month!
I though my $700 million WW was optimistic but $850 million is where I think it will end up granted huge success in Japan! 
Its at 480m right now. For a 210m final total in china we add 75m to that. For 290m In US we add 130m more. Lets add 65m for japan. 30 for Brazil. 20 for Australia. 45 for UK. 45m from remaining markets (made 26.5m this weekend). Thats 890m with very reasonable numbers. I'd say thats the very low end.
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7 hours ago, catlover said:
Yeah, with the cuteness factor of Minions, I guess I get why it was a success in Japan. But I was so sure that Inside Out would break out there, especially with the glowing review. Maybe it's just a one time thing, and this result is the exception. Zootopia's performance will tell us more about this.
Yeah. Zootopia has everything in its favour. Its got cutesy characters, great reviews and a good story that stands on its own even without the underlying messages. Should atleast come to BH6's gross. I see 60m$ as the floor for this and around 80m$ as the reasonably optimistic near-high end
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who have been the previous winners?
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On 3/14/2016 at 7:58 PM, chasmmi said:
57th
Anticipated /Expected Score - About 60-65/100
Actual Score - 75/100
This was good ol' B Movie fun. Silly premise, essentially a zombie film but the children are zombies. With a school setting suitably claustrophobic for this type of film, there was potential for this to be pretty great but it also could have been pretty awful. In the end, it was just pretty decent.
If you come across it, and you like silly, but not that scary horror, give it a try and have a bit of fun. Not much more to say about it really.
Which movie is this?
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So how is the buzz and awareness for Jungle Book here? What can we expect from it?
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5 hours ago, catlover said:
See, I was thinking it's actually the opposite. Japanese people are supposed to love the dark and adult kind of animation. The ones that are not only directed to kids. Just look at Miyazaki's or other Ghibli movies. Toy Story 3 is kinda dark too and it was a HUGE success. BH6 deals with death, loss and even revenge and that was also huge in Japan. That's why I was so surprised when they chose Minions over Inside Out. Maybe there's a shift in taste towards animated movies? I don't know. Zootopia has cute talking animals dealing with real world social problems. So it could break out like BH6 or just do okay by Pixar/WDAS standard like Inside Out.
I was quite surprised too. Japanese, if anyone, were supposed to know which one is the bettee animated product. The too dark etc. argument is bullshit. With their anime industry (which has major Seinen and Josei genres) they basically are the foremost,even much ahead of US, when it comes to people who dont see the animated medium as something just for kids. Which means that when it comes to animated products they, unlike the other countries which are more inclined towards targeted fare like Ice Age and minions more, should be inclined towards the more intelligent titles, and they are, usually. We can't really just say that maybe it didnt resonate with the east Asians since it had a very good WOM run in South Korea, but then SK and Japan are different countries too so maybe it could still have been possible, who knows. And actually minions performing as it did wasn't too surprising. In the end kawaai is a major part of the culture and minions' laughs resonated with them just like the rest of world. But IO should have made more than it did and def more than minions.But anyways, to conclude anything based on just one occurunce would be foolish and immature. Maybe this was just a one time thing? An anamoly in the system, something specific to these two titles?
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TOP 15 ETC PREDICTION TEMPLATE
Below is a helpful template to use for making predictions. All Players who use this template for their predictions will receive 10,000 bonus points for making my life easier when I have to score everything at the end of the game.
A: Domestic top 15:
1) Civil War 475m
2) Finding Dory 425m
3) Suicide Squad 300m4) Independence Day 2 255m
5) Apocalypse 240m6) Bourne 235m
7) Secret Life of Pets 230m
8) Star Trek Beyond 223m
9) Alice 215m
10) BFG 190m11) TMNT2 175m
12) Warcraft 160m13) Ice Age 150m
14) Neigbours 2 140m
15) Ghostbusters 135mB: Top 7 Domestic OW:
1) CW 194m
2) FD 145m
3) Suicide Squad 135m
4) ID42 94m
5) Apocalypse 92m
6) Alice 78m7) Bourne 75m
C: Worldwide top 10:
1) CW 1.55B
2) Finding Dory 1.35B
3) ID42 1B
4) Ice Age 815m
5) Apocalypse 810m
6) Alice 770m7) Warcraft 750m
8) Suicide Squad 700m
9) Secret Life of Pets 650m
10) Star Trek 580m
D: Worldwide Weekends:
1) CW 450m
2) ID 270m
3) FD 235m
4) Suicide Squad 230m
5) Ice Age 180mE: China Box Office:
1) Civil War 290m
2) Independence Day 280m
3) Warcraft 235m
4) Apocalypse 210m
5) Finding Dory 155m6) Ice Age 145m
7) Alice 140mF: Total Grosses:
Top 15 Dom) 3.5B
Top 7 W/E) 813mTop 10 WW) 8.95B
Top 5 China) 1.15B
G: Around The World in 80 Box Offices:
South Korea #1) Civil War
South Africa #1) Civil WarBrazil #1) Civil War
Mexico #1) Civil War
Australia #1 ) Finding Dory
Italy #1 ) Finding Dory
Pre-season Questions:
A generous risk-free question to start you off: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game:
A: 100M Angry Birds
B: 200M BFG
C: 300M SS
D: 400M Finding Dory
E: 500M Civil War
Each correctly predicted film scores you 15,000 points, get all four correct and receive 25,000 bonus points for 100k total. (This is the only preseason question where there is no penalty for being wrong so enjoy it).
1) Tell me which of these will be the highest grossing film of the summer domestically:
1) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2
2) Independence Day Resurgence3) Angry Birds Movie
4) GhostbustersAnswer correctly: 12,000 points
Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points
State that you abstain: 2,000 points
Correctly predict the films gross to within 20M and receive a 13,000 point bonus, Predict to within 10M and receive 23,000 points bonus.
2) Tell me which of these will be the lowest grossing film of the summer domestically:
1) Free State of Jones
2) Purge: Election Year
3) Popstar: Never Stop Not Stopping
4) Nine LivesAnswer correctly: 12,000 points
Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points
State that you abstain: 2,000 points
Correctly predict the films gross to within 10M and receive a 13,000 point bonus, Predict to within 5M and receive 23,000 points bonus
3) Will at least 3 films make more than 300M domestically by the end of the game? Yes
Answer correctly: 15,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points
4) Will animated films combine to make more than 800M domestically by the end of the game? Yes
Answer correctly: 15,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points
5) Will at least 3 films make more than 100M OW domestic? Yes
Answer correctly: 20,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points
State that you abstain: 4,000 points
6) Will any film have either a second domestic 3 day weekend or a second worldwide weekend that would have qualified for its respective top X table if multiple entries had been allowed? Yes
Answer correctly: 20,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points
State that you abstain: 4,000 points
7) Will at least 3 of the top 5 domestic films of the summer NOT be comic book films? Abstain
Answer correctly: 20,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points
State that you abstain: 4,000 points
8) Will the top 3 films of the summer’s combined gross be higher than the combined gross of Batman vs Superman, Jungle Book and Zootopia? Yes
Answer correctly: 20,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points
State that you abstain: 4,000 points
9) Will any film have a domestic Opening Weekend above $50M but not open to number one at the box office? Yes
Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points
10) Will at least 2 sequel/prequel/reboots drop more than 33.33% Domestically from the previous installment in its franchise (Civil War is vs Winter Soldier, Apocalypse is against DOFP and Bourne is vs Ultimatum for this question)? No
Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points
11) Will at least 2 DOMESTIC titles make over $150M in China? Yes
Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points
12) Will at least 3 animated films open to number one at the domestic box office?No
Yes
Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points
13) Will any film with a budget above $120M (according to BOM or another credible source) gross less than $60M domestically? No
Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points
14) Will any domestic film get more than 8 million admissions in South Korea? Yes
Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points
15) Will any film make more than $45M in Germany? Yes
Answer correctly: 30,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points
State that you abstain: 6,000 points
16) Will at least 3 comedy films (as listed by BOM) make over $100M domestic? No
Answer correctly: 30,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points
State that you abstain: 6,000 points
17) Will any film open to 1st place domestically in its opening weekend and then drop more than 64% in its second week? Yes
Answer correctly: 30,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points
State that you abstain: 6,000 points
18) Will any film in the worldwide top 10 NOT be in the domestic top 15 films at the end of the game? NO
Answer correctly: 30,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points
State that you abstain: 6,000 points
19) Which combination of films will gross the most amount of money domestically during the game?
1) Finding Dory, Civil War, Popstar: Never stop Never Stopping, Mike and Dave need Wedding Dates
2) Apocalypse, Star Trek 3, Sausage Party, Alice Through the Looking Glass
3) Warcraft, Neighbours 2, Tarzan, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2
4) Jason Bourne, Central Intelligence, Secret Life of Pets, Conjuring 2
Answer correctly: 30,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points
20) Which combination of films will gross the smallest amount of money during the game?
1) Pete’s Dragon, Keanu, The Shallow, Nine Lives,
2) Legend of Tarzan, Ratchett and Clank, Me Before You, Arms and the Dudes
3) Ice Age, Money Monster, Lights Out, The Space Between Us,
4) Ben Hur, Now You See Me 2, The Shallows, Mechanic: Resurrection,
Answer correctly: 30,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose
State that you abstain: 5,000 points
Jajang’s (JJ-8) little set of Questions. Answer if you Dare!
Part A: A Fish called Dory
1) Will Finding Dory produce the biggest “animated” opening weekend of 2016 ? (Current Record – 2016 = Zootopia 75.1m) YES
2) Will Finding Dory produce the biggest “animated” opening weekend ever ? (Current Record = Shrek the Third : 121.6m) YES
3) Will Finding Dory make more than 300m domestically ? YES
4) Will Finding Dory make more than 400m domestically ? YES
5) Will Finding Dory top the Summer Game domestically ? (ie. #1 film for the game) NO6) Will Finding Dory make more than 1B worldwide ? YES
7) Will Finding Dory become the #1 Animated Film Worldwide (Current #1 = Frozen 1.277B) YES
8) How many weekends will an Animated Film be on top of the weekend chart ? (You have a Cushion of 1 Weekend – so if you are off by 1 you still get this correct) 4
9) Will any of the listed Animated Films have a weekend drop of “< 30%” in their 2nd weekends ? YES
10) How many Animated Films will be in the top 15 for the summer game ? (you have a Cushion of 1 Film) 3
Part B: It’s a Comic Book World
1) A comic book film is expected to make the highest opening weekend during the summer game (Many of you will have it as your number 1 Weekend). Name that Film OR if you don’t think a Comic Film will be the number 1 weekend this summer, then put NONE. CIVIL WAR
2) Will Captain America: Civil War make more than Iron Man 2 (128.1m) on Opening Weekend? YES
3) Will Captain America: Civil War make more than Iron Man 3 (174.1m) (and inherently more than BVS) on Opening Weekend? YES
4) Will Captain America: Civil War make more than Captain America: The Winter Soldier (259.8m)? YES
5) Will Captain America: Civil War become the biggest MCU film which doesn’t have “The Avengers” in its title (ie. More than Iron Man 3 (409m)) YES6) Will X-Men: Apocalypse make more than X-Men: Days of Future Past (90.8m) on Opening weekend? YES
7) Will X-Men: Apocalypse make more than Deadpool (132.4m) on Opening weekend (this would make it the largest of the X-Men series)? NO
8) Will X-Men: Apocalypse make more than X-Men: The Last Stand (234.4m)? YES
9) Will X-Men: Apocalypse become the biggest of the X-Men series/franchise (Deadpool – Final number isn’t done yet)? NO
10) Will Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows make more than Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) (65.6m) on Opening weekend? NO11) Will Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows make more than Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) (191.2m)? NO
12) Will Suicide Squad make more than Captain America: The First Avenger (65.1m)? YES
13) Will Suicide Squad (Total) make more than Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Opening Weekend (170m – estimate)? YES
14) Will All Comic Book films (Total) make more than 1 Billion domestically (Total of all 4 films together)? YES
15) Will any Comic Book film drop more than 62% in it’s second weekend? (this will always reference 3 day totals only) yes16) In how many of the following markets will a Comic Book film be the number 1 film (Total Gross) during the Game? (You have a cushion of 1 country) (Australia; Brazil; China; France; Germany; Mexico; Russia; South Korea; United Kingdom) 6
17) Will Captain America: Civil War make more than 1 Billion Worldwide? YES
18) Will Captain America: Civil War (Worldwide Total) OR X-Men: Apocalypse (Worldwide Total) make than Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (Worldwide Total) AND Suicide Squad (Worldwide Total) Worldwide? YES
19) Will at least 2 Comic Book films receive a Cinema Score of at least “A”? YES
20) How Many Comic Book films will be in the ALL 3 of the main game charts? (there is no Cushion for this one!) 3-
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11 minutes ago, Telemachos said:
It's all Warners' fault. How dare they release it in the spring?
Its like they don't even care for us BOT SG players!!
And Jungle Book... it should have been part of the game. I can sense a spectacular run for it.
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I though my $700 million WW was optimistic but $850 million is where I think it will end up granted huge success in Japan! 
China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
in China At The Box Office
Posted · Edited by Infernus
So what are Zoo and Revenant looking like today? Will today, for Zoo, finally be lower than its OD? A 70% drop would still keep it above. Will need a 73.5% drop to go below. Not that it matters though... Will most likely fall below on Wednesday at the latest.