Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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20 minutes ago, rukaio101 said:
SW was always going to be big. Admittedly we didn't know exactly how big, but the general hype towards it meant that it was hardly a massive surprise that it did very well.
Jurassic World was much more of a shock and certainly a worthy competitor for biggest box office surprise, but it was still a PG-13 blockbuster released in the Summer and part of a classic blockbuster franchise that had previously broken records and wielded a lot of nostalgia.
Deadpool was an R-rated Superhero movie based on a minor Marvel property, released in a fairly dead month. Until recently it was thought lucky if it went over $40m OW. It opened to more than 3 times that and smashed records for an R-rated movie. Nobody saw Deadpool doing this well. Even the most optimistic predictions didn't go over $100m OW and it beat that by $30m.
Yes they were already expected to perform bigger, but they did outperform the expectations just as well too. A 250m OW, beating previous record by biggest margin ever, in Dec and a final total 330m above the reasonable expectation was every bit as surprising as Deadpool. As for JW, it was only pegged for 100m OW and 300m Dom at most. It easily made more than twice of what it was expected to even by the most optimistic predictors even just a day before, and with much bigger numbers in the play (which, I believe should also be factored in). There's no competition when it comes to JW. Maybe one can put up an argument for SW vs Deadpool but you have to factor the sheer size of numbers that were in play then. Otherwise you may end up saying that a film which made 30m OW instead of the 10m it was supposed to was a bigger surprise than a film that made 250m and beat the previous record with a record margin, that was supposed to make 160m OW. Its true predictions for SW started rising by the time its release came close but so did Deadpool's and I don't think that's supposed to be factored in anyway. If a movie which all had pegged for 100m Dom when it was announced started showing signs of 100m OW two weeks before its release, would its performance not considered surprising? And yet even if you do not take this, that would still only be an argument for DP vs SW for JW was still being predicted for just as much as ever before even a minute before its midnight numbers rolled in. Moreover there are other films like American Sniper, IO and FF7 (especially its overseas performance) from last year that can also be used to argue against this.
So, yeah, Deadpool still isn't the biggest surprise even in a year just on the basis of JW alone.
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20 minutes ago, Baumer said:
2016?
Maybe the decades biggest.
I think SW and JW from last year alone were much bigger surprises, don't you?
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There just ain't no stopping this, is there?
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The final week. The rules continue to not change...
1. Will Deadpool make at least $55M this weekend? Yes
2. Will Deadpool make at least $65M this weekend? 3000 Yes (who'd have imagined?)
3. Will Deadpool make at least $75M this weekend? No
4. Will Deadpool increase more than 43% on Saturday? Yes
5. Will Zoolander drop more than 60% this weekend? No
6. Will How to be Single be in the top 5 this weekend? 2000 Yes
7. What will be the highest grossing new entry this weekend? Risen
8. Will Race make more than $10M this weekend? Yes
9. Will race make more than $12.5M this weekend? 3000 No
10. Will The Witch make more than $8M OW? No
11. Will The Witch make more than $12M OW? No
12. Will the witch make more than 37.5% of its total gross on Friday? 2000 No
13. How many new openers will finish ahead of Kung Fu Panda? ONE
14. Name any film that drops less than 32% this weekend. (Choose ONE film only, or choose NONE) 2000 KFP3
15. Will Star Wars make more than $1M every day of the weekend? Yes
16. Will hail Caesar finish above the Choice this weekend? 3000 No
17. Will Pride and Prejudice finish above Dirty Grandpa? No
18. Will Fifty Shades of Black drop below Alvin and The Chipmunks this weekend? Yes
19. Will Busko Novio Para Mi Merjer make more than $350k this weekend? Yes
20. Will Neerja have a PTA above $3,200? Yes
21. Will The Revenant cross $164M by the end of the weekend? 3000 Yes
22. Will 13 Hours' PTA stay above $1,000 this weekend? Yes
23. Will any film increase more than 135% this Friday? 2000 Yes
24. Will How to be Single make its budget ($38M) back by the end of the weekend? No (for domestic)
25. Will the Choice remain in the top 10? No
26. Will the top 5's combined gross exceed $100M? 2000 Yes
27. Will Deadpool cross $475M WW by Sunday's end? Yes
28. Will Zoolander cross $47.5M Worldwide by Sunday's end? No
29. Were you expecting the silly automatic points scoring question to be number 30? 3000 Yes
30. Can I expect you back to play again in the summertime
? I sure hope so
21/30 - 2000
22/30 - 4000
23/30 - 6000
24/30 - 8000
25/30 - 10000
26/30 - 12000
27/30 - 15000
28/30 - 17000
29/30 - 20000
30/30 - 25000
Part 2:
1. What will Deadpool's total be by the end of the weekend? 5000 248.9m
2. What will be the difference between Titanic and Star Wars' WW gross by the end of the weekend? 5000 149m
3. What will Zoolander's percentage drop be this weekend? 5000 58%
4. How many films will make more than 500k this weekend? 5000 22
5. What will the 3 main openers' combined Saturday gross be? 5000 12.5m
6. What will Ride Along gross on Sunday? 5000 613k
7. What will Embrace of the Serpent's total gross be by the end of the weekend? 5000 20k
Part 3
2. Risen
4. Race
6. Witch
9. SW
12. RA2
15. finest hours
18. buesco novio
20. 13 hours
3/8 - 2000
4/8 - 5000
5/8 - 8000
6/8 - 12000
7/8 - 15000
8/8 - 20000
Good Luck
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The fact that 27/27 people predicted TGD and that even the lowest prediction would have had it at no.5 is enough to show the legendary disappointment that it turned out to be...
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So we've got our final top 7 now. I'd like @WrathOfHan to do the unveiling
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This is just incredible and unfathomable Still behind SW 250m weekend and JW or Avenger's 200m's but still one of the most surprising OWs of the past decade.
Also WTF for revenant!! 0.6%drop??!! And that's for the 3-day. Didn't know it was a valentiney movie...
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On 2/13/2016 at 5:20 PM, chasmmi said:
Ok well Deadpool has made things embarrassing. There is now a 5% chance that this means preseason 5 has to be remarked (if it breaks 140M OW)
Question 7 is looking like a yes now (if Deadpool beats 50SOG)
Question 8 even has a shot of passing Origins by the end of the game and making this a yes
If its OW passes Hunger Games that will help out people that screwed up with TFA a little
)
9 hours ago, JJ-8 said:so as it stands...
As it stands Deadpool is heading for a 130m to 145m OW (3 day)
Q5 - is on a knifes edge as by the looks of it.... hoping it comes in under 140m so we don't need to rescore but in saying that it will change a lot of peoples scores to +ve for that question including mine
Q7 or 8 are yet to be scored. so....
Q7 is locked now so it is indeed a Yes
Q8 is very likely now to pass Origins (it needs 179.9m to be exact which seems a given at this point) so i'd say at this point this will be a yes also.
its now locked to be the #2 OW of the game behind TFA... doesn't really help that much chas as no one predicted it to be this high.
talk about turning the game on it's head..... (great decision in hindsight to include it in the winter game)
Woo Hoo!! Every single of these answers that this might change would turn a wrong answer of mine to a right one. And I think that will be some good turnover for me.
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On 2/13/2016 at 8:13 PM, chasmmi said:Spoiler
Okay, I am going to go out on a limb and assume that Deadpool's OW is over $38M and thus...
SOTM 7
Choose which will be higher for as many of the following as you like:
1. Evolution's Worldwide total ($98.37M) vs Force Awakens' highest single day gross. TFA
2. Evolution's Domestic total ($38.34M) vs Deadpool's Opening Weekend DEADPOOL
3. Evolution Opening Weekend (13.48M) vs Hunger Games' 2016 gross EVOLUTION
4. Evolution's Opening Day ($4.43M) vs Revenant and Hateful 8's combined total gross by the end of the year. REVENATE
5. Evolution's UK gross ($10.79M) vs Point's Break's Opening Weekend EVOLUTION
6. Evolution's Production Budget ($80M) vs Chipmunks' total gross MUNKS7. Evolution's foreign total ($60.03M) vs 13 Hours: Soldiers of Benzhagi total gross EVOLUTION
8. Evolution's Opening week total ($18.9M) vs Kung Fu Panda 3's Opening Day EVOLUTION
9. Evolution's German gross ($7.08M) vs Sisters' Opening Weekend SISTERS
Correct answers are worth 4000 points
Incorrect answers lose 3000 points*
* However! Get 3 or more questions incorrect and you lose 30,000 points regardless of how many you got correct and you gain no points for your correct answers.
If you answer 100% of the questions you chose correctly you win the following bonus:
1/1 1000 bonus
2/2 2000 bonus
3/3 3000 bonus
4/4 5000 bonus
5/5 7000 bonus
6/6 9000 bonus
7/7 12000 bonus
8/8 18000 bonus
9/9 24000 bonus (so 60k total score is possible for this question)
Abstaining is worth 2000 if stated
No answer in this thread will mean a loss of 5000 points
SCORES:
GREYGHOST: 15000
BCF: 15000
EXXDEE: 14000
INFERNUS: 13000
CHASMMI: 13000
WRATH: 10000
BLANKMENTS: 9000
DARKELF: 9000
GLASSFAIRY: 9000
DAMIENROC: 9000
JAJANG: 9000
TELE: 6000
KAYU: 5000
DAJK: 5000
WRATHOFHAN: 5000
BACKGROUND: 2000
MIKEKAYE: -30000
FILMOVIE: -30000
MISAFECO: -30000
MOVIEMAN: -30000
KALO: -30000
AVI: -30000
anyone not mentioned above scores minus 5000
fuck HG!
On 2/13/2016 at 8:32 PM, chasmmi said:SpoilerI am going to go out on a slightly riskier limb, but I think that Dirty Grandpa, The Boy and 5th wave are not going to overturn any gaps with their weekends all likely to be sub $2m in total from now on. Also this SOTM makes me happy
SOTM 9
Predict which five January (NEW) release films will gross the highest domestically by the end of the game. You may predict as many or as few as you like, However your placements must start at 1st place and work down to 5th, (no choosing 1st, 4th and 5th).
1 place correct score 5000 points
2 correct scores 10,000
3 correct scores 15,000
4 correct scores 25,000
5 correct scores 50,000
If a predicted film finishes in the top 5 but not in the place you predicted, you score 2000 points for that film.
However if ANY film predicted does not finish of the top 5 January releases, you will lose 30000 points.
1 Kung Fu Panda 3 Uni. $More than 78,531,235 - 2 Ride Along 2 Fox $78,531,235 - 3 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi Par. $48,947,015 - 4 Dirty Grandpa LGF $30,890,920 - 5 The Boy (2016) STX $27,865,587 - 6 The 5th Wave Sony $26,819,370 - Scores
CHASMMI: 25000
BACKGROUND: 15000
TELE: 15000
GREY GHOST: 15000
WRATHOFHAN: 15000
WRATH: 15000
DARKELF: 15000
MOVIEMAN: 15000
KAYU: 15000
MISAFECO: 15000
FILMMOVIE: 15000
EXXDEE: 15000
DAJK: 14000
GLASSFAIRY: 10000
KALO: 2000
DAMIENROC: 2000
BCF: 2000
AVI: -30000
BLANKMENTS: -30000
JAJANG: -30000
INFERNUS: -30000
MIKEKAYE: -30000
fkin' fk The Boy (and me, for I changed my choice from DG to 5th Wave and coz its valentine)
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On 2/13/2016 at 5:20 PM, chasmmi said:
Ok well Deadpool has made things embarrassing. There is now a 5% chance that this means preseason 5 has to be remarked (if it breaks 140M OW)
Question 7 is looking like a yes now (if Deadpool beats 50SOG)
Question 8 even has a shot of passing Origins by the end of the game and making this a yes
If its OW passes Hunger Games that will help out people that screwed up with TFA a little
)
this shows how unbeilevably surprising deadpool's performace is
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Ok, this is insane. This is crazy. This is unbelievable...
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7 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:
The only question now is......how high can Deadpool go, WW-wise?
And DOM-wise, will it be enough to beat the 2 biggest R-rated flicks like American Sniper & Passion of the Christ?
Passion of the Christ is the R-rated box office king with $370M DOM. Not sure if Deadpool will top that....but we may never know.
Nah, dont worry I dont think they'll start keeping its boxoffice numbers secret from now on, so I believe we will know by the end of the month.
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29 minutes ago, Fake said:
Whoa..... the 44-46m figure has Thursday previews included......
More reasonable to expect would be:
FRI: 45M
SAT: 32-35M
SUN: 32-35M
So 110-115M weekend. I agree that 2.5x is achievable, since the first direct competition is 6 weeks away. That gives it around 280M.
If it can somehow reach 300M and beat "Man of Steel", that would be like the story of the decade.
Hmm, forgot about the Previews. Keeping those aside the calculations would become -
Previews - 12
Fri - 35
Sat - 38
Sun - 40
OW - 125m
Monday - 14m
4 day - 140m
Total gross 285-310
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Whoooooa. This is incredible. And there was actually a question in the winter game asking whether this will be able to cross 35m on its OW
What Kind of OW does this mean? Going by this -http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2010-02-14&p=.htm - Friday was the lowest day of the weekend for every single movie. Going by that this means we are getting a 145-155m OW!!!! With this being a 4 day weekend and this recieving glowing reactions from virtually everywhere, an OW of atleast 2.5 shouldn't be that tough ...which would mean a 375m final gross!!!
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Just going through the list and Wow, My short review for IO was among the two used! Yayy! But just at number 3
!?! I wanted it at first. Didn't watch enough movies to submit a list or it'd have been number 1 and Mad Max would definitely have been number two. I just hope I find out Mad Max to be the top ranker now in a few seconds.
P.S I seriously shouted out loud when I saw AOU at #7. Thank God that was a prank
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On 2/2/2016 at 4:25 AM, movieboner said:
It'll probably finish with $160 million domestically. I'm rooting for this movie to win best picture, even though it wasn't my favorite film of the year. The beautiful visuals, powerful acting and intensity blown me away in the theater. If it wins, it'll probably be like Gladiator and Braveheart winning. My favorite film of the year is Inside Out and Mad Max (tie).
It'll be over 160 my next weekend itself
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8 minutes ago, Wrath said:
You know that the gap between the games is like half as long as tge games are, right? You dont have to miss it for that long.
Yeah, but I may not be able to participate in the Summer Game. I'll be in 12th/Senior Year/Final High School Year by april and I'll have to be concentrating on my studies.
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So I guess its over now....
I'll miss this...
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1. What will Deadpool gross on Valentines Day? 23.3m
2. What will The Witch's OW be? 6.35
3. What will Zoolander's total be by the end of the game? 41m
4. What will Kung Fu Panda's Worldwide total be by the end of the game? 289m
5. What will Risen make Opening Day? 4.6m
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ahhhhhh!!
I almost forgot about this!!!
Will have to do some quick thinking now!!!
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1 hour ago, a2knet said:
Hope it happens. Not that it saves face, but it saves sanity. Cannot fathom <150m usd for a sequel to a movie that made 92m usd in the 2011 Chinese market.
Admission wise I guess 92m usd worth of admissions in China in 2011 is like 200m usd worth of admissions today.
Close to 320m$ taking into account both market growth and change in exchange rate. I am not including 2016's possible growth into this calculation though.
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? I sure hope so
Wednesday Numbers, Deadpool $8.62m
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Also TGD was also an extremely massive disappointment. I'd say that was a really big surprise too although not as big as deadpool.