Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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SOTM 2
Film Gross Full Partial Full 32,000 / Partial 20,000 - Jurassic World: 415 83 41.5 Full 30,000 / Partial 18,000 - Solo 210 42 21 Full 28,000 / Partial 16,000 - Incredibles 2 600 120 60 Full 25,000 / Partial 15,000 - Deadpool 2 315 63 31.5 Full 20,000 / Partial 12,000 - Antman and the Wasp 210 42 21 Full 12,000 / Partial 8,000 - Mission Impossible 205 41 20.5 Full 12,000 / Partial 8,000 - Mamma Mia 2 115 23 11.5 Full 10,000 / Partial 6,000 - Christopher Robin 85 17 8.5 Full 10,000 / Partial 6,000 - Ocean's 8 135 27 13.5 Full 8,000 / Partial 5,000 - Hotel Transylvania 160 32 16 Full 8,000 / Partial 5,000 - Spy who Dumped Me 30 6 3 Full 6,000 / Partial 4,000 - Skyscraper 65 13 6.5 Full 6,000 / Partial 4,000 - First Purge 65 13 6.5 Full 5,000 / Partial 3,000 - Equalizer 2 100 20 10 Full 5,000 / Partial 3,000 - Life of the Party 50 10 5 Full 5,000 / Partial 3,000 - Sicario 2 50 10 5 Full 4,000 / Partial 2,500 - Valley Girl 0 0 Full 4,000 / Partial 2,500 - The Meg 120 24 12 Full 4,000 / Partial 2,500 - Teen Titans 25 5 2.5 Full 4,000 / Partial 2,500 - Darkest Minds 10 2 1 Full 3,000 / Partial 2,000 - Breaking In 45 9 4.5 Full 3,000 / Partial 2,000 - Overboard 50 10 5 Full 3,000 / Partial 2,000 - Bad Samaritan 0 0 0 Full 3,000 / Partial 2,000 - Hereditary 40 8 4 Full 2,000 / Partial 1,000 - Showdogs 15 3 1.5 Full 2,000 / Partial 1,000 - DOg Days 5 1 0.5 Full 2,000 / Partial 1,000 - Book Club 65 13 6.5 Full 2,000 / Partial 1,000 - Crazy Rich Asians 115 23 11.5 Full 2,000 / Partial 1,000 - Action Point 5 1 0.5 Full 2,000 / Partial 1,000 - Adrift 30 6 3 Full 1,000 / Partial 500 - Slender Man 25 5 2.5 Full 1,000 / Partial 500 - Super Troopers 0 0 Full 1,000 / Partial 500 - Searching 5 1 0.5 Full 1,000 / Partial 500 - Replicas 0 0 Full 1,000 / Partial 500 - Kin 0 0 0 Most people did well here. Spreading your investments among a lot of films didn't really help a lot. The top scorer, for instance, only invested in two films.
Rank Name Score 1 grey ghost 143 2 glassfairy 139 3 Panda 124.5 4 baumer 124 4 kayumanggi 124 4 Kalo 124 7 Telemachos 121 7 Wrath 121 9 aabattery 116 10 JJ-8 113 10 Jake Gittes 113 12 AndyLL 112 12 24Lost 112 14 Simionski 111.5 15 WrathofHan 110 16 Empire 108.5 17 chasmmi 106.5 18 Spagheditary 106 19 bcf26 104 19 Sheikh 104 21 Infernus 101.5 22 Mr.Pink 100 23 MovieMan89 94 24 Premium George 91.5 25 Slambros 88 26 Chewy 85.5 27 druv10 85 28 The Dark Alfred 77 29 Mike Hunt 76 30 ZeeSoh 74.5 31 That one guy 73 32 Fancyarcher 66 33 Avatree 30 -
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I'm doing SOTM 2 right now, in case anyone else has been planning to score it. Do inform me if anyone's already started though.
SOTM 1 will be the only one remaining after that, as Wrath is doing SOTM 7. So if anyone's planning on doing some SOTM scoring, go for that.
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SOTM 12
1. How many make the Summer Game Domestic top 20? 2
2. How many have an OW above $12M? 3
3. How many open in the top 3 spots? 5
4. How many decrease less than 10% (including increases) on their opening Saturday? 6
5. How Many have a second weekend drop less than 52%? 3
6. How many are in the top 12 in the final weekend of the Summer Game? 5
Few people attempted this one. Almost everyone who did scored better than the abstainers though.
Rank Name Score (in thousands) 1 Jake Gittes 51 2 bcf26 41 3 JJ-8 38 4 aabattery 29 4 Mr.Pink 29 4 Sheikh 29 4 WrathOfHan 29 4 ZeeSoh 29 9 Deja23 28 10 Chasmmi 16 11 Fancy Archer 15 12 Simionski 3 13 24Lost 2 13 Infernus 2 13 kayumanggi 2 13 That One Guy 2 13 Wrath 2 18 glassfairy -7 -
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Here're the total SOTM scores thus far btw. SOTMs yet to be scored are SOTM 12, 7, 1 and 2 -
Rank Name Total (in thousands) SOTM 3 SOTM 4 SOTM 5 SOTM 8 SOTM 9 SOTM 10 SOTM 11 SOTM 6 1 Wrath 342 -25 30 70 90 59 35 80 3 2 That One Guy 341 10 3 44 86 41 5 97 55 3 Infernus 327 25 30 49 86 41 36 38 22 3 WrathOfHan 327 -95 150 16 90 54 12 97 3 5 aabattery 325 5 15 21 90 26 35 121 12 6 MovieMan89 305 5 30 80 86 90 11 3 6 ZeeSoh 305 -10 30 74 90 41 36 104 -60 8 bcf26 298 -45 0 60 90 57 12 121 3 9 Deja23 274 -80 30 65 90 41 21 104 3 10 Fancy Archer 271 -10 30 40 88 41 22 85 -25 11 kayumanggi 245 -75 15 65 90 47 5 121 -23 12 Simionski 222 -10 0 33 90 0 36 121 -48 13 grey ghost 207 10 15 39 90 0 0 50 3 14 Panda 202 -25 30 37 90 70 0 0 0 15 Sheikh 184 -60 30 0 78 39 35 97 -35 16 Baumer 183 -95 30 36 82 35 36 84 -25 17 Mr.Pink 180 25 30 20 90 0 12 0 3 18 Captain Wondyful 164 0 15 5 90 30 12 0 12 19 Chasmmi 153 -60 0 40 74 18 19 97 -35 20 Chewy 81 -130 3 25 86 18 12 67 0 21 glassfairy 80 -75 0 14 90 17 29 30 -25 22 Kalo 65 -25 30 60 0 0 0 0 0 23 Jake Gittes 60 -80 -86 11 62 39 14 121 -21 24 24Lost 54 -25 -10 53 3 27 3 0 3 25 Empire 39 -80 -91 80 90 25 12 -42 45 26 Telemachos 15 25 -5 -5 0 0 0 0 0 27 JJ-8 5 -60 -195 36 78 21 39 64 22 28 SchumacherFTW -27 -25 3 -5 0 0 0 0 0 29 Druv10 -50 -60 15 -5 0 0 0 0 0 30 Avatree -53 -30 30 -5 0 0 0 0 -48 31 Slambros -59 -60 3 -5 0 0 0 0 3 31 The Dark Alfred -59 -60 3 -5 0 0 0 0 3 33 AndyLL -80 -25 -50 -5 0 0 0 0 0 34 Spagheditary -85 -95 15 -5 0 0 0 0 0 35 Mike Hunt -264 -80 -179 -5 0 0 0 0 0 36 Premium George -276 -80 -221 48 0 0 0 0 -23 -
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7 minutes ago, Wrath said:
Great timing! I was going to start on that one in like an hour. If you’re doing more, let’s coordinate our efforts. I’ll probably do 7 next, unless you’re already working on it.
No, go ahead. I'll do SOTM 12
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SOTM 3
Below are 6 questions with multiple choice A, B, or C answers.
For each question you can either answer or abstain.
If you are correct you win 20,000 points
If you are incorrect you lose 30,000 points
If you abstain you get 5,000 points
1. Avengers, Deadpool, and Solo's combined OW will be:
A. Less than $400M
B. Between $400M and $475M
C. Over $475M
2. Solo's China Box office will be:
A. Less than $50M
B. Between $50M and $70M
C. Over $70M
3. Avengers' Total admissions in South Korea will be:
A. Less than 8.5M
B. Between 8.5M and 10M
C. Over 10M (11M+)
4. Deadpool's UK gross will be:
A. Less than $45M (44.5)
B. Between $45M and $60M
C. Over $60M
5. The film with the best mulitplier will be:
A. Avengers
B. Deadpool
C. Solo
6. Avengers' number of weekends in the domestics top 5 + Deadpool's number of weekends in the domestics top 5 + Solo's number of weekends in the domestics top 5 will be:
A. Less than 14
B. 14 or 15
C. Over 15 (17)
Extras:
* If you answer at least 3 questions and do not get one question wrong, correct answers are worth 25,000 instead of 20,000
* If you abstain to 5 or more questions, lose 10,000 points (you still score abstain points though)
If you score less than minus 100,000, your score will be increased up to minus 100,000 points.
So this SOTM turned out to be far more of a mess for the players than I had thought. You know things went bad when the two most frequent scores turn out to be -25k and -60k, with 6 players getting each. Only those who played it safe managed to survive this one. Solo fucked up a lot of players both in Q1 and Q5 as nearly everyone picked Solo for best multiplier and over 475m for the combined OWs of DP, IW and Solo (Who could have imagined Solo wouldn't even get to a 92m OW). Also basically everyone thought Deadpool would cross 45m in UK. It didn't.
Rank Name Score (in thousands) 1 Infernus 25 1 Telemachos 25 1 Mr.Pink 25 4 That One Guy 10 4 grey ghost 10 6 MovieMan89 5 6 aabattery 5 8 Fancy Archer -10 8 ZeeSoh -10 8 Simionski -10 11 Panda -25 11 Wrath -25 11 Kalo -25 11 AndyLL -25 11 SchumacherFTW -25 11 24Lost -25 17 Avatree -30 18 bcf26 -45 19 Chasmmi -60 19 Druv10 -60 19 The Dark Alfred -60 19 Slambros -60 19 JJ-8 -60 19 Sheikh -60 25 kayumanggi -75 25 glassfairy -75 27 Mike Hunt -80 27 Empire -80 27 Premium George -80 27 Jake Gittes -80 27 Deja23 -80 32 WrathOfHan -95 32 Baumer -95 32 Spagheditary -95 35 Chewy -100 (-130 but -100 was the lower limit for this one) -
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I just realized that if JW had a WW total of 1300m instead of 1300.57m as the current estimates show and if Tag had an OW of 15m instead of 14.95m, they'd have got me 100k by themselves in SOTM 7, not even including the added bonuses they'd have got me. Instead I'll be getting -16k from them....
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Okay guys, I get it. I knew it wasn't gonna happen anyway. Just thought there's no harm in putting the suggestion out there though.
I agree that the rules were clear regarding this and that we've never, at least as far as I recall, implemented changes in the middle of a game. For the risk part though I think the risk in China is far more unfounded than that in domestic box office, especially regarding release dates, and while the rules are really helpful in cases of a film not getting a release at all, last moment releases can still screw things up, considering the negative marking. But eh, I guess it just adds more flavour to the game
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30 minutes ago, a2k said:
Looking at 2018 movies so far with prod budget of 100+, JW2 will have the best Global Cume to Prod Budget ratio.
JW2 7.7x (1305/170).
BP 6.7x (1346/200).DP2 6.7x (734/110).
AIW 6.5x (2046/316).
I2 6x at 1200 ww. It should get close to that.
Fallout could do 4.35x (775/178).
Meg should do around 4x (520/130).
Ant-Man2 will be around 3.85x (625/162).
Really incredible that MI6's budget is greater than JW2's.
Tom cruise running more expensive than an entire island of dinosaurs running
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Ok, so I know this is probably going to be a no but can we, if nobody has any problem with it, not count MI6's release in China for the top 5 china grosses thing? I mean its last moment release has hurt us all more than it not being released in the stipulated time period at all would have. And on top of that it's not like those of us who put it in their top 5 were wrong about it either. One day more, only its 5th day in the market that is, is most probably all it's gonna need to get in the top 5.
We'll still be including its china gross in its worldwide gross though, of course, because there's no reason why that shouldn't be done.
And yes I'll benefit by this and that's obviously part of why I'd like this to happen but I don't think that is any reason to discard this suggestion if it makes sense otherwise, right?
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Part A:
1. Will Operation Finale open to more than $4M for 3 day? 1000 Yes
2. Will Operation Finale open to more than $6M for 3 day? 2000 Yes
3. Will Ya Veramos open to more than $900k? 3000 Yes
4. Will Ya Veramos open to more than $1.3M? 4000 Yes
5. Will any new entry enter the top 3? 5000 Yes
6. Will Crazy Rich Asians drop less than 5%? 1000 Yes
7. Will Happytime stay above Mission Impossible? 2000 No
8. Will Mile 22 stay above Alpha? 3000 No
9. Will Blackklansman Drop less than 10%? 4000 Yes
10. Will The Meg have a PTA more than $2,650? 5000 Yes
11. Will AXL have a bigger weekend drop than The Spy Who Dumped Me? 1000 No
12. Will Incredibles cross $600M? 2000 Yes
13. Will Slenderman stay in the top 12? 3000 No
14. Will something in the top 12 in more than 2000 theatres increase more than 40%? 4000 No
15. Will I ever be free of Summer and Winter Games? 5000
Part B:
1. What will Operation Finale make for its 3 day? 9M
2. What will Crazy Rich Asian's percentage change be? -8%
3. What will Christopher Robin's PTA be for the Weekend? $2,200
Part 😄
2. The Meg
4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
7. Mile 22
9. BlacKkKlansman
12. Incredibles 2
15. Ya Veremos
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1. Will Kin open to more than $4M for 3 day? 1000 NO
2. Will Kin open to more than $6M for 3 day? 2000 NO
3. Will Searching make more than $3.5M? 3000 YES
4. Will Searching make more than $5M? 4000 YES
5. Will Searching make more than one of the Openers in a higher theatre count? 5000 YES
6. Will Meg increase? 1000 NO
7. Will Slenderman stay above AXL? 2000 YES
8. Will Will at least 7 of the top 12 increase on Sunday? 3000 NO
9. Will Teen Titans Drop less than 10%? 4000 YES
10. Will Mamma Mia have a PTA more than $1,000? 5000 YES
11. Will Mission Impossible have a bigger weekend pecentage drop than christopher Robin? 1000 YES
12. Will The Equallizer cross $100M ON Saturday? 2000 NO
13. Will Happytime Murders stay in the top 3? 3000 NO
14. Will anything in the top 15 drop more than 20%? 4000 YES
15. Will Spaghetti rig the Boffys so that Survivor wins best forum game
? 5000
Bonus:
9/15 5000
10/15 8000
11/15 12,000
12/15 16,000
13/15 20,000
14/15 24,000
15/15 30,000
Part B:
No Part B FOR YOU!!!!!!!!!!!! NO NO NO!!!!!
Part 😄
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
3. MI:F
6. Happy Time
8. Searching
11. Kin
14. EQ2
16. AM&TW
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Damn it, forgetting to edit SOTM 11 before the deadline really hurt me... Might have even cost me a rank or two in the final tally
8 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:LMAO my stupid ass thought that for SOTM 10, the more AM2 outgrosses the target film the more points we will get. Which is why I made those picks.
But anywho I still scored 2nd highest in that so no worries. Also thanks to @Wrath for the scoring
Same here. Thankfully it didn't cost me much.
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Part A:
1. Will Happytime Murders open to more than $12M? 1000 Yes
2. Will Happytime Murders open to more than $16M? 2000 No
3. Will A.X.L open to more than $1.5M? 3000 No
4. Will A.X.L open to more than $2.0M? 4000 No
5. Will Pappilon have a higher PTA than both the other big new openers? 5000 No
6. Will Crazy Rich Asians stay at Number 1? 1000 Yes
7. Will SLenderman stay above Hotel Transylvania? 2000 No
8. Will The Meg cross $100M ON Saturday? 3000 Yes
9. Will Mission Impossible Drop less than 40%? 4000 No
10. Will Christopher Robin have a PTA more than $1,850? 5000 Yes
11. Will Blakklansman have a bigger weekend drop than Antman? 1000 No
12. Will Alpha drop more than 30% Sunday? 2000 Yes
13. Will Mile 22 increase more than 45% on Saturday? 3000 No
14. How many films will have a weekend above $10M? 4000 2
15. How many happy endings will Happytime Murders have? 5000
Part B:
1. What will Happytime Murders make for its 3 day? 13M
2. What will Ant Man's percentage change be? -32%
3. What will The Meg's PTA be for the Weekend? $3,100
Part 😄
1. Crazy Rich Asians
2. The Happytime Murders
4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
6. Disney's Christopher Robin
9. BlacKkKlansman
11. Slender Man
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Part A:
1. Will Crazy Rich Asians have a 3 Day more than $20M? 1000 Yes
2. Will The Mile 22 Open to more than $20M? 2000 No
3. Will Alpha Open to more than $8M? 3000 No
4. Will Crazy Rich Asian's 5 day Total be more than Mile 22 and Alpha's combined Weekend totals? 4000 No
5. Will Meg stay at number 1? 5000 No
6. Will MI6 drop more than 43%? 1000 No
7. Will SLenderman stay above Blakklansman? 2000 No
8. Will Spy Who Dumped Me stay above Mamma Mia? 3000 Yes
9. Will Christopher Robin enter the Summer Game domestic top 15 by the end of Sunday? 4000 No
10. Will Ant Man have a PTA more than $1,450? 5000 Yes
11. Will Equaliser's drop more than 45%? 1000 No
12. Will Hotel Transylvania drop more than have at least 2 days over $1M? 2000 Yes
13. Will Incredibles increase more than 70% on Saturday? 3000 Yes
14. Will Mamma Mia drop more than 25% on Sunday? 4000 Yes
15. Will Black Panther edge past $800M domestic this weekend? 5000 Yes
Part B:
1. What will Crazy Rich Asians make for its 3 day? 20M
2. What will Slenderman's percentage change be? -65%
3. What will Hotel Transylvania's PTA be for the Weekend? $1,350
Part 😄
1. Crazy Rich Asians
3. Mile 22
5. BlacKkKlansman
7. Alpha
9. Mamma Mia
10. Spy who dumped me
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How's buzz for MI6? Are chinese critics reacting to it the same way as their foreign counterparts? Any chance it might have a 100m opening, improving on the 86m one of its predecessor?
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13 hours ago, Wrath said:
Yeah, I think there will be a lot of 14/15s and 7/7s in the scoring this year.
Yeah looks like that. Things have mostly adhered to pre-season expectations. I just checked my preseason list and I think I'll probably get 7/7 OW, 12/12 Worldwide and, if MI6 opens anywhere close to its predecessor in China, 5/5 China too! If only Skyscraper manages to crawl past Book Club I'll have 15/15 too. But after those abysmal weekend estimates I doubt that's gonna happen.
Edit: Just realized Ant-Man's releasing this weekend in China. That will probably ruin my 5/5 China unless it somehow manages to outgross Skyscraper in the 10 days available to it
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23 hours ago, Wrath said:
My quest for 15/15 is up a bit, as Meg looks like a slam dunk to beat Book Club and Spy Who Dumped Me isn’t. But not as much as I’d like as I also need both Purge and Skyscraper to beat Book Club (and hold on against Crazy Rich Asians) and thats looking shakey. I think I’m up from 1/10 to maybe 1/5, but still a long shot.
Same for me. Looks like we had the same films in our top 15
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Damn, really shouldn't have missed that one week. Completely impossible to breach the top 2. What a lead!
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The Summer Game is Here!! Infernus wins it... pipping WrathofHan in the final revels who had to settle for second after leading the whole way... Wrath wrapped it up in third!
in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game
Posted · Edited by Infernus
I think Simionski's score is 677
Also, I think everybody who didn't participate in SOTM 2 gets 30k. So a few such players - Deja23, CaptainWondyful, SchumacherFTW will have 30k more.
Players who didn't participate in any SOTM, ChD and Cmasterclay that is (going by weeklies and QOTW), get 15k. 30 in SOTM 2, -10 in SOTM 1 and -5 in SOTM 5