Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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Looks like its 13 out of 15 correct answers for me this weekend! And 2 placements.
Exxdee got 14 out of 15 and 4 placements though...
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4 hours ago, KP1025 said:
H
Read my follow up post. I didn't say the number is unrealistic (and in fact, I think that number is very likely). I was suggesting that to make the point that the Chinese government would not allow Star Wars to dominate the market because it is a Hollywood film would also mean that Avatar 2 would be subjected to the same rules. That means no exceptions or special favors when it comes to its release like the original Avatar had with its 2 month run time and less competition from local films.
Hmm. Well I do agree with that. What I mainly wanted to say was that Avatar making 600-800m is defintely realistic and quite likely too (and a 100 times more so than SW making 600m) and since you think the same I guess we are in the same boat.
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9 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:
For the first time, Titanic was beaten DOM-wise, and finally bumped down to 3rd place.
Never seen any other movie do that, before.
Your comments really amuse me
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90m$ is really good in itself. Would still put it much higher than all other blockbusters except for Avatar. The country's highest-grossing list will start to look like the WW highest grossing list as it looked before 2015. To think the prequels grossed as low as 20m$ in their time.
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On 12/30/2015 at 2:28 AM, movieboner said:
All the dumb Star Wars fanboys are begging China to gross $600 million, so their precious film can destroy Avatar worldwide. The weed is strong in them.
Another question to ask is why would China's government let a foreign film dominate their film market, the domestic film industry is improving with domestic hits defeating their Hollywood rivals. The market is growing faster than expected which exceeded $6.5 billion this year, but with domestic films taking a larger share of the market. They would rather have their domestic films get rich, so one day a Chinese film company can rival Disney worldwide.
On 12/30/2015 at 2:38 AM, KP1025 said:Is this any different from the Avatar fans thinking the sequel will do $600-800 million, or that it will be allowed to run for 2 months instead of 1 like the original?
What? Yes it is. Very Different. Star Wars grossing 600m means making 200m (50%) more than the current record when most present facts/data indicate a 250m$ high-peak unless it absolutely breaks out. On the other hand Avatar 2 making 600-800m on releasing in Dec 2017 (earliest it may get released) means it grossing one third of what the original Avatar would adjust to by then. I can simply not fathom why one would think its unrealistic, even if he thinks its not locked.
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Preseasons
1 Correct (needs to reach 125m for me to get the bonus) 10k
2 Abstain 3k
3,4,5 Incorrect -30k
6 Not confirmed yet but 100% YES, so should be correct 15k
7 Not confirmed but near definitely NO (Deadpool needs 90m OW) so Incorrect -15k
8 Nothing can be said, but chances are more for NO
9 TGD, SW, Revenant (film and actor and maybe director/screenplay), Hateful 8 (supporting actress), Bridge Of Spies (if it remains in the top 15), Creed, Spectre (for song) and Peanuts Movie all have chances (bolded are locked) but still not definite enough
10 Correct 20k
11. Almost definitely 'Chinese' unless it grosses 200m in US and less than that or greater than 400m in China. All 3 things are highly improbable but anything can happen.
12 Correct 25k
13 Correct 25K
14. Unless Revenant grosses 200m+, its correct for me but anything can happen
15. Correct 30k
16. Abstain 5k
Total 88k confirmed and 143k if rest of questions do not surprise too much.
Star Wars
1-7 Correct 35k
8 Nothing can be said
9 Correct 5k
10 Nothing can be said
11 I think a definite Yes (Visual effects, Score and something else technical like Sound mixing, Sound Editing, production design, and maybe film too) Correct 5k
12-14 Correct 15k
15 Nothing sure but should be NO unless Ride Along 2 goes all Ted 2
16, 17 Incorrect -6k
18 Correct 5k
19. Incorrect -3k
20. Not sure but I think should be 9-12.
Total 56k and 13/16, need atleast 3 out of the other 4 to get a 5k bonus
Total 144k and possibly 203k if things go the more probable way
Not really sure How good that is but should help me prevent a negative score in the overall preseasons.
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@Jar Jar Chasmmi 'Yes' for q7 of SW is correct too, right?
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I thought I did really bad in the preason questions but looks like I did ok. I just got wrong in nearly all the questions which need optimism for a Yes for I was 'mahnamahna' level optimistic and everything but Star Wars (which, it turns out, is the only one where my prediction in all three charts was below the average prediction
) flopped or didn't breakout..
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6 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:
Foreign films don't count, right? Just domestic ones that're released overseas.
But the question itself is specifically asking for foreign film...
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Yeah 12 of Preason is done. Mojin is close to 200m already.
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19 minutes ago, Filmovie said:
Yes I know, SW is the most important movie of the Game: but can we value someone's "BoxOffice Skills" by the ability to predict one movie that has trascended all BoxOffice rules?
Nevermind, mine wasn't a critique
A certain major aspect of 'boxoffice skiils' can be very well portrayed and valued through predicting Star Wars too, in fact seldom does a case comes along where that skill is put to use as much as in this one. Its true that applying knowledge of past behavior of similar movies of similar times and that of the current market trends to a movie's run makes up the very basic essence of box office predicting (more correctly extrapolating) but another irrefutable truth of the matter is that each movie's run is, as a whole, unique. Present trends and available past data have to be applied but in a filtered manner, specifically bending them around and modifying them before applying them, to suit the ways of that particular movie's run as we began to understand more and more about it(s run). Mostly though that doesn't play enough of a major role for most movies tend to follow the 'trends' and the 'box office rules'. But here we have a film, a major one, once again defying those trends and rules and displaying a particularly surprising, amazing, memorable, bewildering run as the likes of Avatar or MBFGW. Actually its nowhere close to them but the run is still pretty rule defying and amazing for being a hitherto unseen mixture of a Mega-summer-blockbuster and something like Avatar. Anyways, we will have two weeks/three weekends of data to work on, understand and extract a generalization from by the deadline. To be seen is how well one can do that.
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Is Revenant eligible? Its the only film expanding wide in Jan. We can make an exception to it. It may end up adding a little more spice and fun to the SOTM.
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1. Will Hateful 8 finish in the top 2? Yes
2. Will Daddy's Home make more than $20M? 3000 Yes
3. Will Sisters stay above $10M? Yes
4. Will point Break drop more than 47%?2000 No
5. Will Hunger Games have a $1M day? Yes
6. Will Star Wars gross more than $80M? Yes
7. Will Star Wars gross more than $100M? Yes
8. Will Star Wars pass Avatar by the end of the Weekend? 3000 No
9. Will Star Wars pass $1.5B by the end of the Weekend? Yes
10. Will Danish Girl enter the top 12? 2000 NO
11. Will Good Dinosaur pass $110M? Yes
12. Will Revenant's PTA stay above $35k?3000 Yes
13. Will Alvin stay above the Big Short? Yes
14. Will more than 2 films finish above Krampus and have a higher percentage drop than Krampus? 2000 NO
15. Will you be drunk when answering these? No
10/15 2000
11/15 3000
12/15 5000
13/15 7000
14/15 9000
15/15 12000
Part 2
1. What will be the difference in domestic gross between Star Wars and Avatar after this weekend? 5000 7.056m
2. What will Hateful 8's Percentage increase be? 450%
3. What will Creed's Sunday be? 5000 .8365m
Part 3
2. Hateful 8
4. Joy
6. Alvin
9.Point Break
12.Good Dino
15. Carol
3/6 2000
4/6 5000
5/6 8000
6/6 12000
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1. KFP3
2. Ride Along 2
3. 13 Hours
4. The Fifth Wave
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33 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:
Life of Pi is superb.
That is what I said. Easily best of its year at least.
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Ah, Finally! I was starting to think Life of Pi wouldn't even make the list. Glad to see there is someone else on these forums who considers it one of the best of the 21st century.
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26 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:
And another thing, if it breaks Bond in England, it will still be behind TFA, which is going to be the record holder there.
TBH, I think 1.7B from those markets is indeed a possibility (as in its possible for a movie to do that), if it performs close to the level the original Avatar did then on adjusting to market growths or on the fact that it became highest grossing movie of all time by a big big margin in all of these markets but Japan, it will make 1B in China (actually on really adjusting to market growth there it avatar's gross adjusts to 1200m+ today and fairly conservative 30% increases over the next two years will make that 2B+...), 200m in UK, 200m in Japan, 150m in Aus and 150m in SK. That gives us 1.7B wih room for improvement
. Of course its definitely not gonna happen though.
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8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
How would a vote on here look when asked the question will "Star Wars make 2.8B internationally?", how many people on here think it can do it.
Zero. Still haven't seen anyone who thinks there's even 10%+ chance for this to make 2.8B, let alone someone who thinks there's a greater than 50% chance (which I assume is what someone would/should think if seriously voting).
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4 hours ago, K1Rey said:
Is that so? Report it to us and we'll see what we can do to help you.
You can do so here: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/support/
is is anyone else having the same issue?
I just read this. I am also having the same problem.
3 hours ago, misterchief81 said:Yeah. Same for me. It goes back or forward to that page, but the actual posts on the page never load. But if I hit the refresh button on safari, everything on that page loads normally.
Exactly this.
Btw looks like I can edit again!!
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2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Switching to a non-SW theme might help.
Nope, still not working...
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btw, I am unable to edit any posts. The text-pane isn't getting active. Is that happening to others too?
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For the members who only answered from among these five questions
bcf26 - 15,000
Jajang - 2,000 (should point break's estimates hold)
Wrath - 10,000
glassfairy - 9,000
MikeKaye42 - -30,000
While the following are sure not to be handed the -30,000 thing
Tele
WrathOfHan
Grey Ghost
Blanks
DAJK
Infernus
kayumanggi
darkelf
DamienRoc
Not that all this matters much but I had a lot of free time (winter vacations for high schooler) and was bored so..
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Looks like we have got a lot of answers for SOTM 7 already
1. Evolution's Worldwide total ($98.37M) vs Force Awakens' highest single day gross.
2. Evolution's Domestic total ($38.34M) vs Deadpool's Opening Weekend
3. Evolution Opening Weekend (13.48M) vs Hunger Games' 2016 gross
4. Evolution's Opening Day ($4.43M) vs Revenant and Hateful 8's combined total gross by the end of the year.
5. Evolution's UK gross ($10.79M) vs Point's Break's Opening Weekend (this one may change though)
6. Evolution's Production Budget ($80M) vs Chipmunks' total gross (both the first and third part (second had a five day OW) made atleast 2.5 times their gross by second OW. This is at 39-40m. 80 should definitely happen)7. Evolution's foreign total ($60.03M) vs 13 Hours: Soldiers of Benzhagi total gross
8. Evolution's Opening week total ($18.9M) vs Kung Fu Panda 3's Opening Day
9. Evolution's German gross ($7.08M) vs Sisters' Opening Weekend (I think it may do this in its third weekend too, quite a win for the film)
Nothing can be said for Q2, 7 and 8 but I think 3 will be won by Hunger Games. Going by both of its predecessors it should do that. But its been having worse drops than them these past 2 weeks. That of course is due to Star Wars effect. Most probably it would improve now though.
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1 minute ago, Jar Jar Chasmmi said:
Take it as a freebie
Besides, it will probably have passed at least Avengers by then too so there are a few free points to be had if you notice.
The trick is to hope that others don't pick up on that by announcing it to the playerbas... oh
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. Of course its definitely not gonna happen though.
You can do so here: 
China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
in China At The Box Office
Posted · Edited by Infernus
What, through your calculations, would Avatar adjust to by dec 2017, considering 25% increases in the hollywood market in the country for the next two years.