Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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5 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:
I know its a little early, but would you say at least $1B USD worldwide is locked?
Honestly I feel that changing the title frm Star Wars Anthology: Rogue One to "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" is a bad move, overseas box office at least $200m damage due to title change, lolI am fairly certain of 1B+. The good WOM in most of the major markets will help prevent that great of a drop. And anyways, its not really that difficult to make 1B WW now. 400m in US will only need 600m OS. It will make probably 130m in China, 80+ in UK, 50+ in Germany, France, Aus, Japan and will have some increase in a few asian countries. Should get to 1B.
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The current Top 7 is -
1 TFA
2 MJ2
3 Spectre
4 Peanuts
5 Revenant
6 TGD
7 Daddy's Home (did anyone predict anything for this?)
Only, RA2, KFP3 and Deadpool have greater than 30% chances of entering the top 7 now. KFP3 will probably take 4th or 5th place, Deadpool and RA2 can take anything from 4-notonthelist.
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40 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
Hence the reason I said in the 1st post this:
As is IMHO OT I put spoiler tags for the rest (and will edit my other post to do the same, it's too long for specialized thread like this)
That sentence is IMHO not something final, I only pointed out that there might be a reason to see it in another way.
Ppl might not have realize the changes much, the critics / ppl with awareness say it's a big difference, so who knows how much it influenced them to like it more or not whilst watching it in the cinema (again?)...
I am surrounded in RL by artists (even in the school I am working a 2nd job are some, but other work and private live are full with artists, me not, but I do editing... work for them) out of different fields of art. Didn't find anyone who said it's the same. I had to ask them as I do not see 3D..., missed the 3D re-release entirely for work reasons (I think) = never bought the 3D disc, as... only 2D sighted
= I have no personal opinion about it, but I am aware about different POVs
And in general?
A rerun done so many years later is nothing I'd add in any list anyway, that's one of the reasons me personally do not use BOMs all-time charts, especially as I do not accept their calculation model for inflation, spread out re-releases... Funnily enough other websites have too such lists... with entirely other results = I use my own calculation models
I look into each 1st run release (not like the 4 theater for 2 weeks and then going wide, I mean real releases) and release and the year of its release (circumstances...) for it's own, split up per general details - incl the newer one we are actually live in - into 8 different time-phases (term?).
Yes, it is entirely upto someone whether he considers Reruns as parts of a films gross. But what I was saying is that if a person does usually consider them, then there is no reason to exceptionalize Titanic merely due to relatively more techincal (but not plot altering at all) differences in its re-release.
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1 hour ago, Baumer said:
I sense there is a lot of happiness here with the somewhat under performing of Star Wars. Is that what happens when something is so big somewhere else but not here? Do people just like to see the mighty fall?
I did not express it here but I am a little happy at it under-performing here too. Nothing against the movie itself but its really amazing to see year after year pass and Titanic still in the top 2 WW. Also that saved me 30,000 points in the Winter Game (there was a question to the line of - 'Will SW earn more in US or China during the duration of its China run' and I answered US.), so that also may have something to do with it
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16 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:
Just being positive, I mean if Word-of-mouth is good, it may do well.. but obviously not as good as Ep7 in terms fo overall numbers. I mean while people uninitiated may not watch Ep7, they might watch the spinoff. Furthermore the economy may be doing better next year, hence exchange rates against the USD may be higher since the Fed Rate Hike was announced Dec 16 coinciding with TFA release this year... haha.
Lastly, not forgetting that TFA did not do particularly well in Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Vetnam and Taiwan due to Ip Man 3's opening just one week after its opening, now that Donnie Yen(who plays the role of Ip Man himself) is on board for Rogue One, things may be different. He is a huge draw in Asia.I realize all that but its difficult, for me atleast, to imagine more than 1.5B$ for Rogue One WW.
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Btw, I recently came to know Titanic actually, really, literally made 44m$ in its first run here in 1997 (or 1998). That is absolutely incredible, amazing, unbelievable, humongous etc. etc. A pure mathematical adjustment of the figure with respect to average market growth and change in Exchange Rate would increase it to...get ready for it... well above 3B$, maybe even close to 4B$ depending on the market growth between 1997/1998 and 2003. I think it is the highest any movie ever made, adjusted, in any one country. I am saying I 'think' because I remember someone saying in the main china thread that some movies in the past may have gotten hundreds of millions of admissions in their time, here. Only Gone with the wind in US (1.6B according to mojo but with lots of reruns, if we take the titanic rerun figure in china and adjust it that would add another 400-500m+ to its gross), Star Wars 1 in US (again with lots of reruns) and Avatar in China (1.2B+ in China, although if we take 3D into account then it will easily get lower than Titanic and a few others like ET and Sound of Music in US) come close.
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8 hours ago, terrestrial said:Spoiler
He opened up the ratio ('opened up to 16:9 from the original 2.35:1 aspect ratio'), now parts of the surrounding are to be seen that weren't before.... He used the full frames of the original material for finding his new version. I hope I describe it right, that's not my usual terms-I-know area.
Sounds not important? = according to critics the changes were that massive in their POV, that they adjusted their ratings to a considerable higher one.
But he did not cut out scenes or so, it's all within the scenes known already (beside to exchange a star / sky background to the correct one matching to the date, but that's more an insider thingy)
I asked someone here out of the art... (term?), for those it's partly like another movie (especially with the added 3D = used in a way strongly supporting the scene's intended impact also)
Cameron seems to be a frontrunner in having a feel how / for which scene... 3D is used at it's best storytelling impact or so.
Btw, it also had an $18m budget,... = absolute o.K. IMHO, but if you think about it, wow, some smaller movies have less for their movies with to pay crew and cast...
Sometimes my head is spinning over all the payed and reached amounts (generally speaking)
About the possibilities of ratio changes, I found a website using I guess a computer game (???) for showing ratio possibilities, maybe that explains better than me
edit: looked up and found several examples in the net, partly the lights seem to differ a bit too
hmm. I can not see the pics, I mean the ones where her hairs are much brighter, more too see, the focus stronger on her... whilst speaking with him
http://www.blu-raydefinition.com/reviews/titanic-limited-3d-edition-blu-ray-review.html
People still saw it as titanic so I don't think that's relevant when making box office lists.
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2 hours ago, TigerPaw said:
Will be interesting to see how Rogue One plays out, some are saying like it is Iron Man 3 after Avengers. Rogue One would probably earn at least 150m in China, improvement over Ep7 and I bet Disney will try their best to secure a good release date with Donnie and Jiang Wen in it. But worldwide it may not reach Ep7's level as it is a spinoff. It will be a real test to Disney and Lucasfilms, can the Star Wars brand still break records with a spinoff.
'may'? Really? It will be lucky to make two thirds of Ep7. It will likely break all records pertaining to spinoffs though. Fantastic beasts will beat it in some countries and will be atleast second-all-time in the others so its gonna be a really good year for spinoffs.
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Only the Panda Predicted anything for The Revenant - 50m. Within 15m and will get 10,000 plus points for being the closest.
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17 minutes ago, Baumer said:
FOTR: Fellowship of the Ring
TTT: The Two Towers:
ROTK: Return of the King
TFA: The Force Awakens
ROTJ: Return of the Jedi
ROTS: Revenge of the Sith
So many acronyms...we should open a thread for just film acronyms.
I agree.
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15 hours ago, peludo said:
Just four examples:
HP1 did $24m in Spain with 6.3 million admissions. With today average ticket price, that amount of admissions means $43m (+79%)
In UK, it did $91m. It sold an estimated 17.56 million admissions, which today means about $170m (+86%)
In Germany it sold 12.5 million admissions which means, if I am not wrong, about $120m (it did $67m) (+79%)
In France it sold 9.5 million admissions which means about $75m against the real $48m (+56%)
In Germany, France and Spain cases, HP1 sold more admissions than TFA. And in UK case it can be quite close.
Even in US the estimated adjusted figure is a 51% bigger than the real figure. And you are saying a mere +38% increase in 14 years even considering that HP1 had worse ER than now. And of course, in the adjusted figures I do not include the 3D effect that SW7 has.
DH2 did $60m in China 5 years ago. Today HP would be easily a 150-200 contender. Fantastic Beasts will be a good test to know it.
Said this, I agree with you that people have more entertainment sources than in 2001 and the amounts made this 2015 not just by TFA, but by JW, AoU, F7 or Minions have an incredible merit. But the same applies if we compare 2001 with 1977 and A New Hope times
What kind of entertainment or ways to see films existed in 1977 beyond going to the cinemas? no one.
It is impossible to compare different eras for those factors, so we just have to look at the BO figures/admissions, or just we can avoid this kind of comparisons. But it is more fun to compare
BTW, Welcome to the forums!!
Edit: My bad. Just seen that TFA will sell more than 10 million admissions in France, so TFA wins there, but not by much.
Thats some really interesting data. Do you have similar data for Titanic? I would love to see what it would have made today with the same admissions in a lot of big countries.
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5 hours ago, AndyLL said:
So 1st round of the tournament is complete. Only 4 real matches this week.
@Infernus @boxofficeth @glassfairy @JJ-8
all move on.
Everyone except the 4 that lost have a match this week. 32 of them.
I'll try to get some more functionality on the user interface this week.
http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/DerbyTournamentResults.aspx
Huh, What? We were having a tournament in the derby? I was in a match too? And I won? Wow, I didn't even really enter any numbers with much thought into them, being busy in the Winter Game. Looks like I'll have to play seriously now.
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5 minutes ago, misterchief81 said:
Depends on word of mouth. Revenant had a fantastic opening weekend, but if a large majority of this weekend's audience tell their friends that it was too long, too violent, too boring etc (and the cinemascore wasn't great, so that 's a possibility), it's 2nd weekend holds might not be enough to overtake TFA. Ride Along should beat TFA though.
Its just won the 3 most important awards at Golden Globes. A lot of people, even if they didn't like it that much, will start thinking maybe they missed something or will be trying to look smart/cultured infront of their friends, so WOM is not going to hurt it, atleast not by its second weekend already. The Oscar nominations it will receive may help too.
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10 minutes ago, DAJK said:
Ahem ride along cough
Ride Along may come first but Star Wars will still probably lose to Revenant.
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8 hours ago, Telemachos said:
I like Leo a lot. I didn't think this performance was particularly amazing. The movie itself is very pretty and cool to look at it, but I felt it was completely vapid and empty, and it's something I've been souring on ever since I saw it a couple months ago.
I think you need to watch this film once more. Give it another chance. Maybe you'll like it more. Personally I feel one can not fully and correctly judge a lot of movies/songs before at least giving them two watches/hearings.
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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Best Motion Picture - Drama: Spotlight
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy: The Big Short
Best Actor - Motion Picture Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Best Actress - Motion Picture Drama: Brie Larson, Room
Best Actor - Motion Picture Musical or Comedy: Matt Damon, The Martian
Best Actress - Motion Picture Musical or Comedy: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Best Director: David Miller, Mad Max
Best Screenplay: Spotlight (or Steve Jobs)
Best Original Score: Revenant
Best Original Song: "See You Again", Furious 7
Best Animated Feature Film: Inside Out
Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul
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13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Between Room, Brooklyn, SOC, Sicario, and TFA all strongly vying for those last few spots Inside Out's chances to sneak in are way too far gone even with 10 noms. Hell, even with 12 noms.
I think it has more chances than Sicario and SOC. But there's no telling what the academy throws. 4 more days...
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53 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
I'm already screwed there because it didn't end up on the shortlist for Hair and Makeup (WTF?).
What? Shit!!! I thought it was the frontrunner for that category?
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1 hour ago, filmlover said:
I'm kinda hoping the Academy trolls us all with a Mad Max shut-out and a SURPRISE nomination like The Danish Girl.
What? Why would you hope that? Mad Max absolutely deserves the recognition. Here's what I hope for - IO getting nominated for BP. Its better than most other contenders. If Martian is in the race for even the award, this definitely should get a nomination atleast. It was unarguably much better and was a much bigger hit too.
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2 hours ago, misafeco said:
"Will any film in the top 8" = top 8 this weekend. SW, Revenant, Daddy's Home, etc.
"end this weekend in a higher position than it was last weekend? "
Answer: Yes.
Hmm... Well I see another 'correct for all' coming up then (unless some other movie ends up increasing over last weekend's position with the actuals). I am going to start looking at a few random others' answers starting from next week to check for any apparent confusion beforehand. Not a big fan of these correct for alls.
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3 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:
Hmm.....
If Force Awakens won't beat Titanic, worldwide?.....then what movie will?
Avengers: Infinity War P2? Jurassic World 2? SW: EP9? What will?
JW2 won't. Episode 9 will certainly drop below 2B so neither will it. Infinity War will 100% be doing it (its getting 600 from China alone and so probably 1200 from US+China alone). But that's too far ahead. Avatar 2 will certainly be doing it before all these. Can't see any other movie doing it till Infinity Wars 2 though. Its so amazing that even after nearly 20 years, with such a fast growing OS market and a well grown DOM market and addition of 3D and other things, only two movies have even crossed its first run gross, both of them the subsequent DOM champions and one of them only after making near a Billion in US.
EDIT: Just realized we were talking about episode 9 and not 8. Its not certain to drop below 2B. I think it still has more chances of ending lower than this Episode 7 though. But yeah it may outgross titanic.
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2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
Wow, really? Not arguing, but how do we know that?
Actually the WOM isn't really that bad. It is not too good though. On most major sites its score have been below par and close to Spectre's which had a very bad multi. On sites where FF7 and Transformers have an avg score of ~9.5, TFA has 7.5ish. Its saturday-sunday drop was somewhat big too. This could also mean that the big opening might be the result of heavy marketing and the limited fanbase rushing out early. Of course the Monday drop would tell a lot. As fr AOU and JW comparisons, AOU opened on a tuesday so its not really comparable, and its first saturday was still bigger than TFA's. JW didn't really open big but it was a WOM monster, a rare example of really good holds (or even at all good holds) in China. Plus its got some light competition next week and KFP3 is opening in its fourth weekend which would essentially end its run, so it actually has just 3 weeks really to make its money. As I said though, Monday drop will tell a lot. Right now, barring collapse or data-defying good WOM, the range is between 130-170m
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14 minutes ago, misafeco said:
Revenant
It was in the counting? It wasn't in the top 8 last weekend. Wouldn't the question be completely obvious otherwise? And wouldn't everybody have answered Yes in that case? Even Chasmmi himself answered No so this was definitely not a freebie either.
What kind of entertainment or ways to see films existed in 1977 beyond going to the cinemas? no one.
Weekend Actuals (Page 93): TFA 42.35M | The Revenant 39.83M | Daddy's Home 15.02M | The Forest 12.74M | Sisters 7.19M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Exactly what I had been thinking.