[South Korea Box Office]

Good point. I didn't know John Cho was born in Seoul.

[Christopher Robin | August 3, 2018 | 70% on RT (and rising!)]

Yes, it depends on hold - but it should get really close to 100M.

[Crazy Rich Asians | August 15 2018 | Jon M. Chu directing. Michelle Yeoh, Henry Golding, Gemma Chan, Constance Wu and Ken Jeong to star]

Saw this yesterday. It is not perfect, but there are some many good things being conveyed that it is entirely entertaining. Western vs. Eastern values - the cultural conflicts - good use of the Singaporean breathtaking views.

 

I just read this article this morning, which probably reflects on some representation issues that had happened in the past decades. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/04/26/an-all-asian-cast-and-no-martial-arts-why-the-crazy-rich-asians-movie-matters/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9311db33c1ca

[South Korea Box Office]

Whoa, "Searching" is doing really well in Korea.

I guess the story of a concerned parent with a missing girl struck a chord there.

[JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW]

Weekend Forecast (09/01-02)
01 (01) ¥328,000,000 ($3.0 million), -21%, ¥1,360,000,000 ($12.2 million), Killing for the Prosecutors (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥304,000,000 ($2.7 million), -18%, ¥2,400,000,000 ($21.6 million), Gintama 2 (Warner Bros.) WK3
03 (---) ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥420,000,000 ($3.8 million), Ant-Man and the Wasp (Disney) NEW
04 (03) ¥251,000,000 ($2.3 million), -12%, ¥8,300,000,000 ($74.6 million), Code Blue (Toho) WK6
05 (06) ¥205,000,000 ($1.8 million), +08%, ¥1,625,000,000 ($14.7 million), One Cut of the Dead (Asmik Ace) WK11
06 (04) ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), -16%, ¥4,465,000,000 ($40.4 million), Incredibles 2 (Disney) WK5
07 (05) ¥153,000,000 ($1.4 million), -22%, ¥4,270,000,000 ($38.7 million), Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Toho-Towa) WK5
08 (07) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), -19%, ¥515,000,000 ($4.7 million), Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (Toho-Towa) WK2
09 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), Sunny: Strong Mind, Strong Love (Toho) NEW
10 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($900.000), Let Me Eat Your Pancreas (Aniplex) NEW
11 (08) ¥x90,000,000 ($810,000), -26%, ¥7,885,000,000 ($70.6 million), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Toho-Towa) WK8
12 (09) ¥x81,000,000 ($730,000), -20%, ¥1,490,000,000 ($13.5 million), Ocean's 8 (Warner Bros.) WK4

This weekend is tricky to predict. Saturday is going to be a very, very busy day, thanks to it being the first of the month (national discount day) and the last completely free day before schools/universities start back on Monday. And Sunday will likely be very weak since Saturday will greatly deflate it, and the evening/night showings, in particular, will probably be very slow. 

So... expect some great holds across the board, and while Saturday pre-sales do suggest a couple films (other than One Cut of the Dead) could experience a weekend increase, I really think Sunday will be weak enough to lower the overall weekend to probably prevent increases. Still, this weekend is generally very strong every year, and this year's will be no different.

Ant-Man and the Wasp will be aiming to debut atop the box-office, and while it has a fair chance, its pre-sales for Saturday just don't look strong enough to do so despite leading the pack. Marvel films typically have some degree of frontloading to them, so I think it'll fall just shy.

Also, this weekend will likely secure that Code Blue will go on to outgross Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer to become the highest-grossing, and most-attended, film of 2018. If it has a sixth-weekend similar to the forecast above, it's likely to exceed ¥9 billion ($81/82 million). It'll become only the fourth domestic live-action to ever exceed ¥9 billion, and it'll be the first domestic live-action film to top a year since 2012.

[Christopher Robin | August 3, 2018 | 70% on RT (and rising!)]

So, where will this land?

90M DOM

70M OS?

Will Disney be okay with that considering the merchandising that goes with it?

[Crazy Rich Asians | August 15 2018 | Jon M. Chu directing. Michelle Yeoh, Henry Golding, Gemma Chan, Constance Wu and Ken Jeong to star]

This movie is about Asian-American, mostly from East Asian descents. It's a step forward for Hollywood. Other representations may follow after.

[Tuesday's Numbers: The Meg - $6.05M]

11 minutes ago, Newland Archer said:

Just for info, how do you know about next week-end screen counts? Is there a site I could check? I only know something called http://english.entgroup.cn/report.aspx

piaofang.maoyan.com

 

You can use google translate to figure things out

[JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW]

Interesting tight race between I2 and MI:F.

[JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW]

Deadline says "Holds are strong, including in Japan where the Parr family jumped up 30% for $19.3M so far". Is it really doing USD 5m+?

[ANT-MAN AND THE WASP | 406.0 M overseas ● 622.7 M worldwide]

As long as China delivers like the first one, 600WW should be delivered.

And while that might not be a big jump from the first one, it is still a pretty good jump.

Only MCU can deliver sequels that score larger than the first one consistently.

[South Korea Box Office]

Why are so many "blockbuster" movies playing in South Korea at the same time?

AMATW really got lucky with the release date and the fact that it had a couple of weeks to itself.

Not so lucky: I2, MI:F, HT2, MM2 with AWtG, Detective Conan and a few others. 

[THE INCREDIBLES II | 634.2 M overseas ● 1242.8 M worldwide]

With DOM: nostalgia plays a huge role with parents who watched the originals now taking their kids. Not sure OS has that in abundance.

[Christopher Robin | August 3, 2018 | 70% on RT (and rising!)]

I've watched the CR movie on Saturday and it's a perfectly fine movie. Some amusing moments and a couple of moments where things become teary. So, the movie works well if Pooh is in your memory somewhere. Hence, I think that is the reason the audience score is really high. They feel connected to the movie a lot, different with the critics.

 

Paddington, in comparison, is a well-made movie. Not many people knew about Paddington before (I didn't). So, critics may love it, but it probably doesn't get to be personal for the audience.

 

 

[Weekend Thread: | Estimates (per BOM) ~ M:I-F 35M, DCR 25.003M, TSWDM 12.35M, MM!HWGA 9.09M, TE2 8.83M, HT3:SV 8.2M, AMatW 6.188M, TDM 5.8M]

So, considering my avatar, I should watch CR, right?

Very good movie with plenty of amusing moments and some touching moments.

I should remember that leaning tree forever now.

[Wednesday numbers: MI6 $6.33M]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

The range for a 10m budget movie P+A can vary a lot (Get Out had a giant P+A budget with a 4-5m or something type of budget, low budget movie can have close to blockbuster type P+A cost in the USA, not having product placement to help), but that one with a pre-establish fan-base with pre-awareness aiming only at said  fabanse could be on the lower range of it.

 

But it is still a studio release and getting over 3,000 theater, who knows what kind of targeted online push it got and how much those cost.

 

Very fanbanse driven / low budget production example of P+A cost, actual prints for them can be close to $0 now, but you often have some fee to pay for theater chain to transfer to digital conversion still.

 

If we look at something like

 

One Direction: This is Us

 

The 40m or so guess would make sense:

 

DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (13,220)

 

Theatrical release cost of 37m

DTH MARKETING (18,070)

DTH PRINTS (COS) (3,025)

DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (2,020)

ITH MARKETING (9,000)

ITH PRINTS (COS) (3,500)

ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (1,500)

 

Home:

DHE MARKETING (3,225)

IHE MARKETING (4,508)

TV MARKETING (200)

 

Totals marketing cost of 35m.

 

 

 

 

So, let's say the cost is 10M production + $35 P&A, that means it probably needs, say $30M DOM (about $15M income), $25M international (about $10M) and $30M ancillary (about $20M) just to break even?

 

The axiom 2xproduction budget to profit definitely would not work for the smaller budget movies, right?

[Wednesday numbers: MI6 $6.33M]

46 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

I really doubt it will be even a +1$ maker

So, for a 10M budget movie like TTGM, how much would be the P+A cost?

[Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - OS Thread - 270.2M OS - 390.7 WW]

2 hours ago, Heretic said:

The first Mamma Mia actually made around $130m in the UK. BOM’s exchange rate calculations are trash. If a film is re-releaed they automatically adjust the $ total to the current ER at the time, which makes no sense at all. 

Ugh, so the second one will drop to almost half of the original?

I agree that $70M is very respectable.

But it does make the significant drop from the original almost certain.

[BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)]

2 hours ago, el sid said:

The Monday update (yes, MM2 wins but it's much closer than in the third trend):

#1 MM2 205k/820k
#2 HT3 200k/935k
#3 Ant-Man and the Wasp 200k/225k
#4 First Purge 40k/485k
#5 JW2 37.5k/2.235M
#6 Catch Me! 35k/40k
#7 Skyscraper 35k/285k
#8 Adrift 25k/205k
#9 Sicario2 20k/115k

How much will Mamma Mia make?

The first one made $39M?

[Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - OS Thread - 270.2M OS - 390.7 WW]

9 minutes ago, StephenN18 said:

I don't know, maybe about $70 million.

The first one did $94M in UK. So, that is potentially a big drop.

The first one did 25M in Sweden, this one will likely not reach that.

So, if things work out really well maybe $500-600M.

If things work out well, maybe $400-500M.

At this point, the conservative prediction is a little below $400M.

[Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - OS Thread - 270.2M OS - 390.7 WW]

1 hour ago, StephenN18 said:

Why $200 million less than the first? I thought this would do as well if not better than the first.

The sequel seems to decrease in Dom. There are still so many countries to open, including the ones that did not play the first one (China, Brazil) that it is still difficult to predict the final number. Also it is still early and we don't know the legs on this one yet.

 

How much total do you think this one will do in the UK?

[South Korea Box Office]

11 hours ago, Olive said:

600K adm with culture day boost, possibly more

Culture day -> lower ticket price?

Is that the reason the $ income did not increase as much from MI5 compared to the admission increase?

[Monday's Numbers]

1 hour ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

Ant-Man 2: soaking up them weekdays so far even if the weekends come in softer because of the calendar. Last Tuesday was a rocket and today could follow suit.

 

(click to enlarge)

Thanks.  Can you add SMH?

[UK Box Office Thread]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

£9.7m for I2 according to SD but that includes previews as well. I think £50m is doable if it has similar legs to the original. 

That's $12.85m USD, higher than the estimated $12.1

[Mamma! Mia: Here! We! Go! Again! | July 20, 2018 | Universal | Ol Parker to write and direct | Greatest Title of All Time? Yes.]

42 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I'm enjoying the soundtrack, Angel Eyes and Why Did Have To Be Me are my favourite.

 

I wonder if Lily James or Amanda Seyfried might be on Universal's radar for Glinda in Wicked? Lily's unlikely as she's doing a play next year.

 

 

I love the part in Angel Eyes where it suddenly changes the key and Amanda Seyfried starts singing, but do not love the part where it changes again and enter the refrain.