humanscrabble

Are these considered alright drops for BH6 from last week?

Are you talking about Big Hero 6's China release date? Frozen was released on Feb 5th, during the Lunar New Year period. Big Hero 6 will be released in China on March 1st.

Will BH6 be able to hit $40 million USD in Japan at the end of this week, or is $35 million more likely?

When Big Hero 6 officially crossed $200 million domestically on Monday, there was very little fanfare about it. Very few news articles picked up on that milestone and reported it in their headlines or body text. Following standard industry practices, most media outlets gave their box office reports based on studio estimates that were released before the actuals were out. So these outlets reported that Big Hero 6 was "inches away from the $200 million mark domestically" which is arguably less attention grabbing than saying that a movie crossed the $200 million mark domestically. Perhaps, the Forbes contributor Scott Mendelson was right when he predicted some time back that Big Hero 6 was likely to be "the year's quietest box office smash."

Interestingly enough, Big Hero 6 began to really outpace The Incredibles, which was also released during the first week of November, in terms of daily and weekly domestic grosses from Week 7 (day 39) onwards: Week 7 Big Hero 6 The Incredibles Day 39 375K 290K Day 40 489K 311K Day 41 373K 324K Day 42 403K 357K Day 43 873K 766K Day 44 1.52 mil 1.34 mil Day 45 1.24 mil 1.01 mil Week 8 Big Hero 6 The Incredibles Day 46 1.08 mil 690K Day 47 1.33 mil 782K Day 48 836K 683K Day 49 1.29 mil 874K Day 50 1.66 mil 705K Day 51 1.83 mil 710K Day 52 1.50 mil 1.00 mil Week 9 Big Hero 6 The Incredibles Day 53 1.41 mil 1.13 mil *from Box Office Mojo

Hm...while it is true that some superhero movies really knocked things out of the ballpark such as The Avengers, Guardians of the Galaxy, the Spider Man movies, and the Dark Knight movies, in the past few years, there were other superhero movies featuring characters that were arguably more high profile than any character in the Big Hero 6 comic series that underwhelmed at the domestic box office such as the Thor movies, X-Men: First Class & X-Men: Wolverine, and the first Captain America movie. Big Hero 6's domestic gross is likely to surpass that of the Thor movies, the first Captain America movie, The Amazing Spider Man 2, and exceed or come close to matching the domestic grosses of the X-Men movies. Also, just considering unadjusted grosses alone, of the 14 movies that were released by Pixar, only six of these movies grossed above $250 million at the domestic box office on their initial runs, two of which were sequels. BH6's domestic gross will probably wind up somewhere between Wall-E's and Brave's domestic grosses. Being Pixar releases and all, I'm genuinely curious as to whether people also felt that Wall-E and Brave failed to surpass domestic box office revenue expectations when they were first released . The thing is, with the exception of Frozen, WDAS hasn't produced a full length animated feature that has cruised comfortably past the $200 million mark at the domestic box office for the past 20 or so years. Frozen might have garnered legions of fans and renewed recognition for WDAS among some groups of individuals, but the amount of hype and exposure that Frozen had received could just as easily have turned other cynical/jaded (?) groups of individuals away from the WDAS brand. Thus, I felt that a domestic gross of $200 million was a wild card and just hoped that BH6 could exceed the $200 million mark domestically. I also wonder what Frozen's final domestic gross would have looked like if its release date had been swapped with Monsters University's summer release date. Although Frozen's whole wintry theme might seem at odds with a summer release date, and it would have faced competition from Despicable Me 2, most children also did not need to go to school for at least 3-4 consecutive weeks on end. Could it have surpassed Toy Story 3's and even Shrek 2's unadjusted domestic grosses? I wonder if this is due in part to the "contrast effect", i.e., that general audiences felt that the other functional alternatives such as POM, Annie or Night at the Museum 3 were really really terrible especially when compared with/contrasted against BH6, and made them all the more likely to eschew repeat viewings/first time viewings of these three family movies in favor of repeat and first time viewings of BH6 over the holiday season. In this unique instance, could it be that "bad" competition helped a "good" movie's box office performance more so than if this "good" movie faced no competition from other family movies?

I fail to see how BH6's domestic performance is "somewhat lackluster", especially when compared with Tangled's, WIR's, HTTYD 2's, and the much hyped about Interstellar's domestic performances. Maybe it's just me, but I was hoping BH6 would gross more than $200 million domestically, and thus far it has met and will exceed my expectations...

Generally, the major film studios have avoided releasing two full-length animated features over the same weekend in the same month, and this tends to be the case irrespective of whether it is summer holiday season or the November holiday season. WIR was released during the first weekend of November and RotG was released during Thanksgiving. During the summer, Pixar, DWA, and Illumination tend to release their animated movies a few weeks apart from one another. The studios probably assume that two animated movies released during the same weekend from two different studios will cannibalize each other and eat heavily into each other's revenue, resulting in a "lose-lose" scenario. Also, a Thanksgiving release isn't a "sure-fire" guarantee that BH6 would have grossed over $250 million. Frozen was a very unique cultural phenomenon that broke out in an unprecedented manner after being released over the Thanksgiving weekend, and it doesn't necessarily mean that every subsequent WDAS feature that is given a Thanksgiving release slot will be able to cruise past $250 million just because Frozen did it. Remember: Tangled was released over the Thanksgiving weekend and had to claw its way up to $200 million.

I hope that BH6 ends this weekend with a DOM gross of between $208-210 million

From figures reported in the Australian box office thread, Wreck it Ralph had a four day (Thursday to Sunday) opening weekend of $4 million AUD whereas BH6 had a three day (Friday to Sunday) opening weekend of $3.7million AUD + another $0.4 million from limited previews on Christmas Day = 4.1 million . Going strictly by these figures, BH6 is slightly outpacing WIR. However, WIR also made an additional $2.4 mil AUD from its Boxing Day Gross when it opened on Wednesday + weekend previews. So it becomes difficult to do an apples to apples comparison when WIR's Boxing Day + preview grosses are factored in because one can argue that WIR still managed to net a $4 million four-day OW despite having a more extensive set of weekend previews. There are also fears that Penguins of Madagascar will annihilate BH6 at the Australian box office when it opens on New Year's Day. Of course, if the American Thanksgiving situation repeats itself on New Year's Day at the Australian box office, BH6 will have little to fear

Fingers crossed that Big Hero 6 holds well against Penguins, and has good daily grosses + weekend to weekend holds in Australia!

I got it here (#hashtagRth): http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/141-australian-box-office-boxing-day-th-bofta-559m-bh6-13m-natm3-11m-water-deviner-864k/page-135 Australia typically reports four day weekend grosses and not three day weekend grosses, so I'm not sure if this $4 million figure for WIR represents a four day, i.e., Thursday to Sunday OW, or a Friday to Sunday OW. WIR opened on a Wednesday, so they could report a four day OW gross whereas BH6 opened on a Friday, so they can only report a three day OW gross at best. If that $4 million figure represents a four day OW gross for WIR, then BH6 (which grossed $3.7 million over three days) is probably outpacing WIR slightly.

So Big Hero 6 made $3.7 million AUD from Friday to Sunday versus Wreck It Ralph which made $4.0 million AUD from Thursday to Sunday when it opened in 2012?

Disregarding Deadline.com's reports for the moment and extrapolating from opening day grosses which were definitely reported way before their second weekends, it is highly likely that BH6's opening weekend gross is somewhere between that of WIR's and Frozen's respective opening weekend grosses, though I could be wrong. It's a crude estimate alright, but then again, the Australian box office doesn't report weekend grosses over the Boxing Day 4-day weekend period. Of course, BH6's Australian opening weekend pales in comparison to that of Hobbit 3's. But the same thing could probably be said for WIR versus Hobbit 1, and even Frozen versus Hobbit 2 over the Boxing Day weekends. Also, another thing to note is that BOM reports four-day weekend grosses for the Australian market, so the second weekend grosses that you're seeing on BOM for Frozen and WIR reflect their Thursday-Sunday grosses, not Friday to Sunday grosses. BH6 opened officially this Friday, and has only been out in Australian cinemas for 3 days. Maybe Deadline.com was comparing what BH6 made over this 3 day opening weekend to WIR and Frozen's Friday-Sunday second week grosses (excluding their Thursdays)?

I don't think Big Hero 6 is flopping down under. WIR made $1.145 mil AUD when it opened on Boxing Day in 2012 whereas BH6 made slightly more than that--$1.3 mil AUD. Deadline.com also says that Big Hero 6's Australian opening weekend was 19% stronger than WIR's, and 18% behind Frozen's, both of which opened on Boxing Day there. Frozen went on to gross $31mil+ USD, and WIR ended its Australian run with a gross of $23.9mil USD, so Big Hero 6's final Australian gross should wind up somewhere between WIR's and Frozen's.

I actually think that Big Hero 6's opening week in Australia is pretty decent. As a frame of reference, BH6's Australian opening weekend is 19% stronger than Wreck it Ralph's opening weekend, and only 18% behind Frozen's opening weekend. As with Frozen and WIR, BH6 also opened on Boxing Day against the Hobbit movies. Big Hero 6's Australian opening day was $1.3 million AUD , Frozen's OD in Australia was $1.63 million AUD and WIR's OD was $1.145 million AUD . Frozen went on to gross $31+ mil USD and WIR grossed $23.9 mil USD, so I think Big Hero 6's final gross in Australia should wind up somewhere between Frozen's and WIR's.