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JJ-8

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JJ-8 last won the day on September 8 2018

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  1. The hunger games is having a nice run here.... 14m+ already.... with Christmas coming... 20m looks well within reach.
  2. Barbie vs Top Films Updated. As already noted, Barbie has put up the 4th highest 4th weekend behind the 2 Avatar films and Top Gun Maverick from last year. This is after putting up the highest 3rd weekend however so is a small drop off. It should be noted Barbie is the 3rd fastest to 70m in Australia only behind Star Wars TFA and AEG which were both closer to 80m at this point but falling away much faster. Sadly this was Barbies biggest weekend drop to date (40%). From here on out the trajectory takes anywhere between 80m and 95m with 80m being average 50% drops from here on out and 95m being average 25% drops from here on out. I still think Barbie can leg it out to 90m from here but it's going to be a close call if the drops continue above 35%. Movie Avatar Star Wars: The Force Awakens Avengers: Endgame Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water Barbie Released 17/12/2009 17/12/2015 24/04/2019 26/05/2022 16/12/2022 20/07/2023 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $10,290,526 $10,290,526 $1,346,822 $1,346,822 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $27,254,820 $27,254,820 $34,116,525 $44,394,082 $13,788,797 $15,135,619 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $19,563,842 $21,567,662 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $11,286,747 $38,541,567 $7,781,367 $52,175,449 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $6,259,906 $27,827,,568 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 941 28,964 1,112 30,680 905 15,236 1,281 11,509 768 25,474 Opening Day 9,425,000 10,290,526 2,500,000 EST 3,000,000 EST 3,000,000 EST Single Day 9,425,000 (Thursday) 10,290,526 (Wednesday) 5,000,000 EST (Saturday) 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) 6,400,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $11,800,884 $50,342,451 $13,597,138 $65,772,587 $12,988,636 $32,732,084 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $17,453,004 $45,280,572 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,604,824 $60,947,275 $3,094,595 $68,867,182 $3,910,391 $36,643,195 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 $4,179,321 $49,459,893 W/E % Drop -26.9% -56.7% -60.1% -5.8% -51.4% -10.8% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $9,001,962 $69,949,237 $5,450,085 $74,317,267 $8,856,601 $45,499,796 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $11,474,787 $60,934,680 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $5,017,486 $74,966,723 $1,278,696 $75,595,963 $3,967,915 $49,499,796 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 $2,452,582 $63,387,262 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $4,917,825 $79,884,548 $3,071,304 $78,667,267 $6,937,497 $56,405,208 $8,275,562 $66,712,040 $6,881,896 $70,269,158 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $2,249,767 $82,134,315 $644,464 $79,311,731 $2,424,242 $58,829,450 $3,260,094 $69,972,134 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $2,988,963 $85,123,278 $1,519,720 $80,831,451 $5,349,050 $64,178,500 $5,178,706 $75,150,840 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,826,202 $88,275,958 $790,477 $82,022,485 $5,777,726 $72,966,168 $4,041,478 $81,386,424 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $1,290,271 $90,638,978 $499,225 $82,753,423 $2,762,622 $78,029,960 $3,256,213 $86,242,824 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $754,425 $91,783,059 $256,402 $83,232,204 $2,189,240 $81,288,912 $1,723,928 $88,787,056 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $94,034,011 $84,258,444 $93,070,000 $93,740,176 $70,269,158 Projected 80-95m
  3. Showdown Barbie vs Avatar etc Barbie is the 3rd fastest film to 60m as it continues to put up the highest weekends (Top 2nd, 3rd so far). Continuing to play as a mostly weekend film (probably due to school being in) it's well on it's way to a 85m+ finish here (for reference that is like it earning 850m Stateside). Currently it trails only SWTFA and AEG at the same points in their runs and those films had Christmas holidays to support their runs to this point. I do suspect that Barbie may still fall short of 90m as while it leads Avatar TWOW, TWOW is continuing to catch Barbie thanks to it's weekly total (even though weekends are stronger to Barbie) and that film only made it to 93m. Still an amazing run whichever way you look at it and unexpected. Movie Avatar Star Wars: The Force Awakens Avengers: Endgame Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water Barbie Released 17/12/2009 17/12/2015 24/04/2019 26/05/2022 16/12/2022 20/07/2023 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $10,290,526 $10,290,526 $1,346,822 $1,346,822 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $27,254,820 $27,254,820 $34,116,525 $44,394,082 $13,788,797 $15,135,619 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $19,563,842 $21,567,662 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $11,286,747 $38,541,567 $7,781,367 $52,175,449 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $6,259,906 $27,827,,568 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 941 28,964 1,112 30,680 905 15,236 1,281 11,509 768 25,474 Opening Day 9,425,000 10,290,526 2,500,000 EST 3,000,000 EST 3,000,000 EST Single Day 9,425,000 (Thursday) 10,290,526 (Wednesday) 5,000,000 EST (Saturday) 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) 6,400,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $11,800,884 $50,342,451 $13,597,138 $65,772,587 $12,988,636 $32,732,084 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $17,453,004 $45,280,572 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,604,824 $60,947,275 $3,094,595 $68,867,182 $3,910,391 $36,643,195 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 $4,179,321 $49,459,893 W/E % Drop -26.9% -56.7% -60.1% -5.8% -51.4% -10.8% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $9,001,962 $69,949,237 $5,450,085 $74,317,267 $8,856,601 $45,499,796 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $11,474,787 $60,934,680 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $5,017,486 $74,966,723 $1,278,696 $75,595,963 $3,967,915 $49,499,796 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 $2,452,582 $63,387,262 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $4,917,825 $79,884,548 $3,071,304 $78,667,267 $6,937,497 $56,405,208 $8,275,562 $66,712,040 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $2,249,767 $82,134,315 $644,464 $79,311,731 $2,424,242 $58,829,450 $3,260,094 $69,972,134 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $2,988,963 $85,123,278 $1,519,720 $80,831,451 $5,349,050 $64,178,500 $5,178,706 $75,150,840 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,826,202 $88,275,958 $790,477 $82,022,485 $5,777,726 $72,966,168 $4,041,478 $81,386,424 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $1,290,271 $90,638,978 $499,225 $82,753,423 $2,762,622 $78,029,960 $3,256,213 $86,242,824 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $754,425 $91,783,059 $256,402 $83,232,204 $2,189,240 $81,288,912 $1,723,928 $88,787,056 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $94,034,011 $84,258,444 $93,070,000 $93,740,176 $63,387,262 Projected 85-95m
  4. Fun game guys..... 1 predict i miss and i'm out oh well .. good luck everyone!
  5. Part A Answer These Questions YES or NO. Please put the YES or NO **AT THE FRONT BEFORE THE QUESTION**. By doing this you get 250 Bonus Points! Yes 1. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 5M Opening Weekend? 1000 Yes 2. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 10M Opening Weekend? 2000 No 3. Will Cocaine Bear Make More Than 16M Opening Weekend? 3000 Yes 4. Will My Happy Ending Make More Than $750,000 Opening Weekend? 4000 Yes 5. 5000 Yes 6. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 3M Opening Weekend? 1000 Yes 7. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 6M Opening Weekend? 2000 No 8. Will Jesus Revolution Make More Than 9M Opening Weekend? 3000 No 9 Will Mummies (Limited) Make More than $500,000 Open Weekend? 4000 Yes 10. 5000 Yes 11. Will AMATWQ Drop More than 50% This Weekend? 1000 Yes 12. Will The Combined Top 10 Be MORE Than 69.01M? 2000 Yes 13. Will The Combined Top 10 Be LESS Than 80.01M? 3000 No 14. Will Missing Stay in the Top 10 this Weekend? 4000 Yep 🙄15. Will Jesus Revolution Make Cap Rewatch Kelsey Grammar's Greatest Performance Ever -- Him Leaving Camille on Season One of RHOBH To "Go Do A Play" in NYC? 5000 Part B Cocaine Bear: Three Day Opening? 13.22m Knock At The Cabin: Drop Percentage From Last Weekend? -44.3% What Film Will Have the Best Hold in Top 10? Puss in boots Part C What Films Will Land in The Following Spots on the Weekend Box Office Chart: 2. Cocaine bear 3. Jesus rev 5. Puss in boots 7. Brady 9. Marlowe 11. Otto 12. titanic 14. Megan Part A Accuracy Bonuses: 11/21 - 20 12/21 - 40 13/21 - 60 14/21 - 90 15/21 - 120 16/21 - 150 17/21 - 180 18/21 - 220 19/21 - 250 20/21 - 300 21/21 - 350 Part B Scoring: 1st Closest: Within 1% - 150 points; Within 2.5% - 120 points; Within 5% - 90, Within 10% - 60; Outside 10% - 30 Points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 120 points; Within 2.5% - 100 points; Within 5% - 70, Within 10% - 40; Outside 10% - 20 Points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 100 points; Within 2.5% - 80 points; Within 5% - 50, Within 10% - 20; Outside 10% - 10 Points Part C Scoring: 1/8 10 2/8 20 3/8 40 4/8 100 5/8 180 6/8 250 7/8 360 8/8 - 500
  6. Rough time of year to open a film here. No holidays to support. School is on so that Fri number is prob expected. Expecting stronger sat/sun.
  7. Part A Answer These Questions YES or NO. Please put the YES or NO **AT THE FRONT BEFORE THE QUESTION**. By doing this you get 250 Bonus Points! YES 1. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 50M? 1000 points YES 2. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 75M? 2000 points YES 3. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania Open to Above 100M? 3000 points YES 4. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania's True Friday Be Closer to Its Sunday Number than Saturday Number? 4000 points YES 5. Will Nine Other Films in the Top 10 Be LESS than Ant-Man and the Wasp's Total for FRIDAY? 5000 points NO 6. Will Of Age Open to Above 2M? 1000 NO 7. Will Of Age Open to Above 5M? 2000 NO 8. Will Of Age Open to Above 10M? 3000 YES 9. Will Emily Open to Above 250,000? 4000 YES 10. Will What Comes Around Open Above 500,000? 5000 YES 11. Will Ant-man & The Wasp: Quantamania's Thursday Previews Exceed 15M? 1000 points NO 12. Will Magic Mike Stay Above Avatar? 2000 points NO 13. Will 80 For Brady drop less than -46.99% 3000 points NO 14. Will Plane Stay in the Top 10? 4000 Points ONLY TIME WILL TELL GO WITH NO 15. Will Cassie Lang will Not Be Nearly as Cute Or Awesome Cause Now She's A Teenager? 5000 Part B Predict AMTAW:Q's Three Day Opening? 133.8m Predict the Avatar's Drop Percentage From Last Weekend? -34.1% What Already Released Film In The Top 10 Will Have the Best Hold? Avatar: The Way of Water Part C What Films Will Land in The Following Spots on the Weekend Box Office Chart: 2. Avatar: The Way of Water 3. Magic Mike's Last Dance 5. Marlowe 7. Of an Age 9. Missing 11. Plane 12. M3GAN 14. What Comes Around Part A Accuracy Bonuses: 11/21 - 20 12/21 - 40 13/21 - 60 14/21 - 90 15/21 - 120 16/21 - 150 17/21 - 180 18/21 - 220 19/21 - 250 20/21 - 300 21/21 - 360 Part B Scoring: 1st Closest: Within 1% - 150 points; Within 2.5% - 120 points; Within 5% - 90, Within 10% - 60; Outside 10% - 30 Points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 120 points; Within 2.5% - 100 points; Within 5% - 70, Within 10% - 40; Outside 10% - 20 Points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 100 points; Within 2.5% - 80 points; Within 5% - 50, Within 10% - 20; Outside 10% - 10 Points Part C Scoring: 1/8 10 2/8 20 3/8 40 4/8 100 5/8 180 6/8 250 7/8 360 8/8 - 500
  8. Yes post into this thread - wrath has answered his at the top of the page (you will need to unravel)
  9. As a follow up I did an extended comparison with Avatar to give you idea how leggy that run was out to 20 weeks. Movie Avatar Avatar: The Way of Water Released 17/12/2009 16/12/2022 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $1,846,552 $1,846,552 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 1,281 11,509 Opening Day 3,000,000 EST Single Day 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 W/E % Drop -26.90% -51.40% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $8,275,562 $66,712,040 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $3,260,094 $69,972,134 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $5,178,706 $75,150,840 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $4,041,478 $81,386,424 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 Week 9 $2,850,321 $102,615,052 Week 10 $1,874,114 $105,454,142 Week 11 $1,709,239 $107,859,934 Week 12 $1,003,500 $109,539,127 Week 13 $780,998 $110,866,504 Week 14 $561,868 $111,653,739 Week 15 $323,301 $112,170,651 Week 16 $296,592 $112,634,016 Week 17 $197,100 $113,030,587 Week 18 $171,377 $113,306,853 Week 19 $302,534 $113,690,469 Week 20 $168,482 $114,044,223 TOTAL $115,623,586 $83,037,970
  10. Top Films Showdown I've removed No Way Home as it's now been surpassed by Avatar TWOW. Avatar TWOW will surpasse AEG sometime over the weekend (probably already has by this post) moving it up to 4th all time only behind TGM, SW: TFA and Avatar itself. Avatar TWOW continues to lead TGM by around 9m and while it lost a little ground over the past weekend is still in a good place to pass TGM before the end of it's run (93m). TWOW is catching up with the run total of TFA at a very fast rate as that film had fallen off a cliff by this point. I'm thinking that the 94m total is well within reach now. The real question is, can TWOW make it to 100m. Avatar had reached 92m after the coming weekend, while TWOW will probably be between 85m and 87m after the weekend is done. Which means TWOW isn't going to reach the same heights of it's predeccessor. 115m is out of the question (actually don't forget Avatar only reached 114.6m when it first exited the top 20 and received a rerelease in August of 2010 where it bumped it up over the 115m mark - this is considered part of the original run as Avatar never left theatres during that time.) (*** I'm also ignoring the > 3.2m or so Avatar has made in re-releases since then - especially in Sept/Oct of last year) My projection is for exactly 100m at the moment. but I have a +/- 5m on that final right hence the range below. Movie Avatar Star Wars: The Force Awakens Avengers: Endgame Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water Released 17/12/2009 17/12/2015 24/04/2019 26/05/2022 16/12/2022 Week 0 $931,125 $931,125 $10,290,526 $10,290,526 $1,346,822 $1,346,822 Week 1 (OW) $11,962,308 $12,895,497 $27,254,820 $27,254,820 $34,116,525 $44,394,082 $13,788,797 $15,135,619 $14,743,196 $16,589,748 $7,349,693 $20,245,190 $11,286,747 $38,541,567 $7,781,367 $52,175,449 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 $4,608,549 $19,744,168 W/E Screens/Ave 588 20,344 941 28,964 1,112 30,680 905 15,236 1,281 11,509 Opening Day 9,425,000 10,290,526 2,500,000 EST 3,000,000 EST Single Day 9,425,000 (Thursday) 10,290,526 (Wednesday) 5,000,000 EST (Saturday) 4,500,000 EST (Saturday) Week 2 $8,749,099 $28,994,289 $11,800,884 $50,342,451 $13,597,138 $65,772,587 $12,988,636 $32,732,084 $7,160,885 $30,762,664 $9,772,863 $38,767,152 $10,604,824 $60,947,275 $3,094,595 $68,867,182 $3,910,391 $36,643,195 $10,027,219 $40,789,883 W/E % Drop -26.9% -56.7% -60.1% -5.8% -51.4% Week 3 $9,659,700 $48,426,852 $9,001,962 $69,949,237 $5,450,085 $74,317,267 $8,856,601 $45,499,796 $10,629,969 $51,424,196 $6,475,778 $54,902,630 $5,017,486 $74,966,723 $1,278,696 $75,595,963 $3,967,915 $49,499,796 $7,012,650 $58,436,846 Week 4 $8,338,365 $63,240,995 $4,917,825 $79,884,548 $3,071,304 $78,667,267 $6,937,497 $56,405,208 $8,275,562 $66,712,040 $5,032,850 $68,273,845 $2,249,767 $82,134,315 $644,464 $79,311,731 $2,424,242 $58,829,450 $3,260,094 $69,972,134 Week 5 $7,002,454 $75,276,299 $2,988,963 $85,123,278 $1,519,720 $80,831,451 $5,349,050 $64,178,500 $5,178,706 $75,150,840 Week 6 $5,604,268 $84,804,886 $1,826,202 $88,275,958 $790,477 $82,022,485 $5,777,726 $72,966,168 $4,041,478 $81,386,424 Week 7 $4,548,004 $92,706,581 $1,290,271 $90,638,978 $499,225 $82,753,423 $2,762,622 $78,029,960 Week 8 $3,936,622 $98,374,262 $754,425 $91,783,059 $256,402 $83,232,204 $2,189,240 $81,288,912 TOTAL: $115,623,586 $94,034,011 $84,258,444 $93,070,000 $83,037,970 Projected 95m-105m
  11. Only needs 8.6m+ to be the record 4th weekend. Well within its grasp
  12. I wouldn't say easily. 8.3m is still up there but a 2m Thursday normally shoukd to a 8.5m-9.5m weekend. Yet another crazy hold if true. Which barring a crazy collapse locks 100m 🤷‍♂️ and frankly keeps A2 on the path to surpasse the what was thought impossible. Remember no film has come within 20m of avatar as yet.
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