POTUS 2020
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TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- Last Week Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Last Week TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 185 -46.7% 50.3% 583 94 -23.9% Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 167 -9.7% 48.8% 750 121 -14.8% Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 887 143 -9.2% Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 115 -16.1% 36.6% 1002 162 -5.6% Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 142 23.8% 63.5% 1144.4 185 -0.5% Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 226 59.0% 74.7% 1370.8 221 6.9% Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 185 -18.1% -46.6% 57.3% 1556.2 251 11.0% Mon 54 -58.33% -56.1% 1433 235 73 -60.6% -60.5% 35.2% 1629.2 263 11.8% Tue 53 -1.85% -52.8% 1486 244 64 -11.8% -61.4% 21.5% 1694 273 12.1% Wed 43 -18.87% -54.5% 1529 251 52 -18.6% -61.8% 21.9% 1746 282 12.3% Thu 39 -9.30% -53.7% 1568 257 45 -14.1% -60.9% 15.4% 1791 289 12.4% Fri 42 7.69% -51.8% 1610 264 59 31.1% -58.6% 40.5% 1850 298 13.0% Sat 62 47.62% -52.2% 1672 274 92 55.1% -59.6% 47.6% 1942 313 14.2% Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 69 -24.6% -62.8% 19.0% 2011 324 14.3% Mon 26 -55.17% -51.9% 1756 288 26 -62.3% -64.4% 0.0% 2037 328 14.1% Tue 28 7.69% -47.2% 1784 293 26 0.0% -59.6% -7.1% 2063 333 13.7% Wed 23 -17.86% -46.5% 1807 296 Thu 18 -21.74% -53.8% 1825 299 Showtimes improved for Thursday. Are these two openers supposed to be promising? Still looking for some kind of holiday pop. I find it hard to believe that a movie so popular with so much early demand could fizzle like every other release.
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Very strong presales for Cinderella on Toho in wed ladies discount day, more than sat and sun. Maybe someone waited this to go to see the movie? Or tomorrow is holiday here?
You forgot GW Ed? Frozen went batshit crazy last year at this time.
April 29, May 3,4, 5
May 5 is childrens day. I think it was Frozens biggest day of its run. will be a good day for cindy
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If DBZ was at ¥1.83 billion by Sunday shouldn't it be at ¥1.882 billion with the estimated ¥52 million Monday gross?
What do you think the movie will be at after Golden Week?
3.3B Y at the end of GW
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TA was quite new back then and IM3 beat F6 in 2013. TF3 beat F5 quite handily in 2011. F7's jump wasn't from it's growth in popularity alone. F8 is going to be massive but it might not be as big as the fans would like to believe.
If nobody else dies and F8 still increases then I'll eat my crows.
FF only became a global thing in 09 with the 4th movie. It was dying before that. TA had its global awareness launched in 08 with IM1.
Walker wasn't famous outside of this franchise and most fans don't go back 14 years. I don't think his death had a $700m WW impact. Its popularity has steadily built since FF4 and this explosion is across the board is going well beyond sentimentality.
No one else needs to die. It can do well with everyone alive and well. Its a good alternative to all of the big budget SH and SciFy/Fantasy movies out there
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Yeah, it's a bit early.
I think it'll be better we hold off until next weekend until we can say anything conclusive
waiting til after the numbers come out take away the point of prediction and debate. mite as well close down the thread
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I'm still not sold on the real strength of FF franchise in China. FF7 seems like a perfect storm to me to be used as an accurate indicator. FF6 couldn't even crack 100m in 2013.
Just like TA1 in 2012 which is about to change
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Yearly admissions of Top 5 cities in China:
#1 Beijing - 51.98M - 22.5M inhabitants
#2 Shanghai - 46.2M - 25M
#3 Guangzhou - 32.4M - 13M
#4 Shenzhen - 29.4M - 10.7M
#5 Chengdu - 29.5M - 14.2M
these cities are quickly approaching 3 tickets per person per year like DOM and other countries and have surpassed countries like Japan that sell than 2 per capita. we may see a decline in growth real soon
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Some people are overreacting, this is doing humungous numbers and its coming from the perfect storm that was The Avengers and a marketplace where 3D was at his peak. Add the poor exchange rates in most major markets...i think its performing as expected. Maybe the anomaly called Furious 7 has overshadowed this near record breaking film...
it is doing great. its overcoming XR and 3D to beat its previous OS, an amazing feat. Its just not going to do F7 OS which came out of nowhere,
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Higher?
Mexico
Spain
Malaysia
Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador, Chile
Smaller countries as well.
If not higher maybe 180M.
There may be a holiday Friday but its a 3 day weekend vs 4-5 day OW and OD hype. Gotto believe 60% drop for current markets. 80m plus new markets, less than 150m.
I'm with the usual suspect
If bad WOM is the case it will spread to US by Thur. Not only does it fall short of 1B OS but also 500m DOM and then maybe falls short of FF7 WW
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To tell the truth.... I am getting a bit worried about 1B OS.......
Current markets should finish with.... say..... $550m.
Remaining markets excluding China should do about $250m.
So China needs to do $200m.
So far.... 1b finish looks comfortable, but if the legs aren't very good, or opening in the remaining markets isn't upto the mark, or China doesn't perform very well, then AoU could be struggling to get there.
Things would be clear only after two weeks.
Opening weekend was 4-5 days in many markets. If its as frontloaded as I think it could be then only 450-500m(2.5X) for current markets. It may need to 250-300m in China to get to 1B.
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Thx guys and oh boy, when you do the maths using mature western markets, China still has a lot of growing to do ...
Biggest success in France was Titanic with 21m tickets whist is about 1/3 of the french population.
Apply that percentage to China and you have 433m tickets out of a population of 1,3B people.
Biggest us movies are 100m+ ticket sellers.
And you re telling me 52m chinese saw FF7 ? Crazy.
A ticket in france(US and Europe too) is affordable to just about everyone. work 1 hour or less and buy a ticket. In china, minimum wage can vary from $1-3 per hour. For some its nearly a days pay to buy a ticket. That doesn't include the 650m that are rural and subsist. Even when GDP matches that of the US, BO will not match as the money will be distributed to 4 times as many people many of which will not buy a ticket. I believe their admissions would go thru the roof(maybe 230m sold to the 690m that live in urban areas, same percentage as france, for a big movie) if they brought ticket prices down to the average hourly minimum wage, say $1.50- $2.
In India they have pricing from $1-$4. They sell 3,3B tickets or nearly 3x their population, That's close to DOM at 3.5x population
China's BO would then be 4B in tickets sold if it matched India or DOM but not at $7 per ticket That's where I feel that you have to look at the amount of people that are both urban and can afford a ticket. Is that 200m? 300m? 400m? Will ticket sales for the all-time movie max at 1/3 that number. Will total ticket sales be 3-4 times that number? I think we'll see the all-time movie max out at 70-80m admissions and total admissions begin to level off at 1B-1.2B at these prices
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I must say its predictable. I said so couple of days back and riled up the loonies. :-)
front loaded by fanboys 1B is un
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who are doubting 1B OS? I think only ones who dont understand OS BO will doubt it.
But F7 vs AOU is still up in the air.
it could have short legs in many markets and china is a wildcard. 1b not a guarantee
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Thursday, because Friday is a Holiday, early schedules indicates FF7 will lose 2/3 of showtimes.
It had 56% this past weekend. I assume that would mean 18-20%
It did 89m w 63% two weeks ago. Maybe it can still have a good holiday weekend w 20%
Do they shift showtimes during the weekend if one of the new releases bombs?
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Because the more important your market, the more negociating power you have. 25% of FF7's gross will still be nearly $100 which is more than they'll get in any other OS market despite the 40-45% shares. If they're not happy the Chinese government would just tell them 'Well bye bye then' and they'd get nothing instead of 20-25%.
It works the other way too. The more important your product the more negotiating power you have. Like IPhone. Hollywood made money w/o china for 100 years and would still make money if there was a ban. The 25% payout equals less than 5% of WW revenue to studios. China's BO would decrease by 50% w/o Hollywood. A lot of theaters would be shutting their doors a few weeks later. They could use the room for storage for all the crap we don't want to buy from them anymore as the movie merchandise factories move to India.
Kingsman ends its run with 482.5M yuan ($77.7m)
what day do the new releases open this week?
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You can’t compare total of FF7 to AOU. Those are not the only markets left. Middle-East, African & some Asian & LA markets are also left for AUO. It is best to compare each market individually to get a better idea which of these two will do better OS.
What I found so far, most of the difference is SK. the rest is close, Another variable is some markets had 4 and 5 day weekends. Still not 100% comparable
TA2 FF7 sk 28.2 6.9 rus 16.2 16.1 aus 13.1 11.1 uk 27.3 19 Fra 12.4 11.8 Ger 9.3 15.9 Bra 13.1 11.8 Arg 4.9 9 Ita 8.5 7.8 HK 6.4 3.18 Ind 7.7 8.7 Phi 7.7 5.7 154.8 126.98 21.9% -
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So 1B OS is locked even it only makes 200M in China?
I think w weaker multiplier than FF7 it will need more than 200m from china
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but AOF had an average 44% more $ in each country,.......so did you counted that too ?
if you add 44% to the remaining territories then you get 238. Still short but close. I think itll lose OS do to legs and china but win WW w Dom help
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it looks like FF7 dropped just 54% OS sans China with 36m weekend, . Nice hold
History shows a better hold the weekend after a big release
with Japan throwing in its usual legs I am thinking 70m more OS + 50m China unless holiday really bumps it +75m and 30-40m Dom. Nice hold this weekend, will take a hit next weekend but will hold tight the following.
1.47B- 1.5b total going to fall short of HP unless some serious late legs grow in many places
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AOU is opening in 55% this weekend how much did TA open in?
F7 opened to higher, but was it in more countries?
200M is strong considering "weak" currency in Europe.
More international markets will roll out Ultron next weekend including Spain, Mexico, Portugal, Croatia, Czech Rep, Greece, Lebanon, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Thailand, Trinidad, Panama, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile and Colombia, along with the highly anticipated North American opening. China will open on May 12th due to a local holiday next weekend and Japan will open on July 4.
I assume 55% is the percentage of territories not percentage of potential BO(market share). Looking at TA1's openings in the remaining markets, sans china and japan, it adds up to just 41m in OW's. subtract Russia(16m, it opened a week later) to have a proper comparison to FF7 and you get just more 26m from those territories. 227m total if the same markets opened as FF7. FF7 wins the weekend. If this is correct then I assume FF7 wins OS with ease assuming shorter legs then of course there is the china boom.
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FF8: $1.2B OS?
How do you top dropping cars from C130?
SPACESTATION!
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TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- Last Week Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Last Week TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 185 -46.7% 50.3% 583 94 -23.9% Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 167 -9.7% 48.8% 750 121 -14.8% Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 887 143 -9.2% Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 115 -16.1% 36.6% 1002 162 -5.6% Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 142 23.5% 63.0% 1144 185 -0.6% Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 226 59.2% 74.4% 1370 221 6.8% Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 185 -18.1% -46.7% 56.9% 1555 251 10.9% Mon 54 -58.33% -56.1% 1433 235 73 -60.5% -60.5% 35.2% 1628 263 11.7% Tue 53 -1.85% -52.8% 1486 244 64 -12.3% -61.7% 20.8% 1692 273 12.0% Wed 43 -18.87% -54.5% 1529 251 52 -18.8% -62.0% 20.9% 1744 281 12.2% Thu 39 -9.30% -53.7% 1568 257 45 -13.5% -60.9% 15.4% 1789 289 12.2% Fri 42 7.69% -51.8% 1610 264 58 28.9% -59.2% 38.1% 1847 298 12.8% Sat 62 47.62% -52.2% 1672 274 90 55.2% -60.2% 45.2% 1937 312 14.0% Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 68 -24.4% -63.2% 17.2% 2005 323 14.0% Mon 26 -55.17% -51.9% 1756 288 Tue 28 7.69% -47.2% 1784 293 Wed 23 -17.86% -46.5% 1807 296 Thu 18 -21.74% -53.8% 1825 299 Biggest week over week drop so far. See how things go on thursday
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Welcome to the website
show that 25/05/2015 is ~ 78M
That source says the tracking system also crashed on Saturday?
his numbers have been fine. youll see on monday
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I see. Thanks for that. However, looking at it in detail, last weekend those chains made up a market share of 37.2% for Conan and 37.1% for DBZ over the weekend for the screens and yet when it came to admissions the market share of the 5 chains was over 40% for both nearing 42% for Conan.
Basically, you can't really take the market share % for screens and expand it to admissions.
Theaters vary from 100 to over 1000 seats. Some movies at times have more of the larger theaters. You need to look at seats available not screens to see market share. The 40% that the 5 chains represent can deviate a few percent
Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW
in International Box Office
Posted
before your time I assume. From the 80's. an Aussie production sequeled by HW starring Mel Gibson. I assume its a remake that will have sequels and prequels and a reboot followed by a collective, teaming up with john connor and Rambo