POTUS 2020
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Posts posted by POTUS 2020
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Includes Sat and Sun projections
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Yes I did predict $270m even after that OD, apparently I was too conservative and pessimistic. however did you say $200m more after last Sunday's cume of $251m. Is F7 still making to your $450m ? As a poor predictor, I just can't tell at all.
I raised a question not a statement, learn the difference.
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Weekend could be 58/100/80, Probably will finish around $360m. Latest projection: http://imgsrc.baidu.com/forum/pic/item/5bdc8b510fb30f2405b7be24cd95d143ad4b03b8.jpg
75% drop? Really? Did you get this out of the Chinese BO Handbook; "all movies must drop 75% in week 4". Did you take into account that its biggest movie of all time? or that its a holiday weekend and holdovers can perform well? Or did you put the same amount of thought into this as Forrest Gump put into Shrimpin'.
OK Ill go with 335Y Thursday thru Sunday, not my actual prediction, just best case scenario, to your 88Y just to show how wrong you are, lol. over under 211,5 we'll see next week.
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390m+ by next Sunday (5.3), really ?? I love the table you make but I think you need to chill down a little tiny bit..... you do know Helios and Silent Separation open next Thursday, right ....
Its a best case scenario based on an observation of historical data presented as a possibility. As in "should it bump it could be"...
I will not chill down.
You need to chill up
It was obvious to me since day 1 it would get deep into the 300's when you were talking 270. You're not omniscient. Stop pretending to be so.
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Silly question. When is May Day?
May Day is May 1 in many countries.The China holiday is May 1,2,3. Evening of April 30th bumps as well.
May 1st. This year and next year will see lower May Day bumps as it falls on the weekend as opposed to mid-week. A mid-week holiday makes people treat it as a holiday week instead of a single day.
Friday and Saturday are workdays so the bump still happens in a big way compared to a regular weekend, but yes , Monday thru Wednesday would be a bigger boost,
April 30 - May 3 Bump Classmate CA2 April Yuan May Yuan Pre/wk April Yuan Prev/wk May Yuan Prev/wk W A30 29 Wed 7.0 W A30 5.5 -14% Thu Thu M1 51 Thu 7.0 -45% Th M1 11 57% Fri 22.0 Fri M2 46 109% Fri 5.8 -51% Fri M2 13 124% Sat 39.3 Sat M3 32 -19% Sat 10.4 53% Sat M3 8 -23% Sun 36.5 Sun 13 -64% Sun 9.0 -53% Sun closed Mon 21.4 Mon 4.7 -47% Tue 18.7 Tue 2.8 -61% Fri-Sat 61 Fri-Sat 78 27.2% W-Sat 30.2 W-Sat 38 24.2% Fri-Mon 119.2 W-Sat 158 32.6% May Day CM Week - Week CA2 F-M W-Sa Increase W-Sa W-Sa Increase 119.2 158 32.6% 30.2 37.5 24.2% $ 19.5 25.9 32.6% $ 5.0 6.1 24.2% FF7 ??? FF7 ??? Th-Su Th-Su Increase Th-Su Th-Su Increase 270 358 32.6% 270 335 24.2% 44.3 58.7 32.6% 44.3 55.0 24.2% Class mates was a hit and managed beat its opening 4 days by 32% on the 30th to the 3rd.
CA2 was at the end of its run, the numbers are small and the same effect happened
Other movies fell but they were not hits.
Should FF7 get a bump it could be as high as 390+ by Sunday with 8 days to go
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TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- Last Week Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Last Week TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 185 -46.7% 50.3% 583 94 -23.9% Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 167 -9.7% 48.8% 750 121 -14.8% Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 887 143 -9.2% Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 115 -16.1% 36.6% 1002 162 -5.6% Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 142 23.5% 63.0% 1144 185 -0.6% Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 226 59.2% 74.4% 1370 221 6.8% Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 185 -18.1% -46.7% 56.9% 1555 251 10.9% Mon 54 -58.33% -56.1% 1433 235 73 -60.5% -60.5% 35.2% 1628 263 11.7% Tue 53 -1.85% -52.8% 1486 244 64 -12.3% -61.7% 20.8% 1692 273 12.0% Wed 43 -18.87% -54.5% 1529 251 52 -18.8% -62.0% 20.9% 1744 281 12.2% Thu 39 -9.30% -53.7% 1568 257 45 -13.5% -60.9% 15.4% 1789 289 12.2% Fri 42 7.69% -51.8% 1610 264 58 28.9% -59.2% 38.1% 1847 298 12.8% Sat 62 47.62% -52.2% 1672 274 p 92 58.6% -59.3% 48.4% 1939 313 14.1% Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 p 75 -18.5% -59.5% 29.3% 2014 325 14.5% Nice bump from Thursday but still down 59% from last Friday. Its enough however to give it a chance at 400m with the May Day bump
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TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- Last Week % BO -OW Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Last Week TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume TF4 Mltplr DayxM +OW $Proj Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 9.07 754 124 184 -47.0% 49.5% 582 94 -24.0% 11.03 2,421 390 Tues 112 -8.9% 8.25 866 142 167 -9.2% 48.8% 749 121 -14.9% 12.12 2,416 389 Wed 95 -15.7% 6.97 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 886 143 -9.3% 14.35 2,358 380 Thur 84 -11.0% 6.21 1045 171 114 -16.8% 35.4% 1000 161 -5.8% 16.10 2,228 359 Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 6.42 1132 186 142 24.6% 63.0% 1142 184 -0.7% 15.58 2,604 419 Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 9.55 1262 207 225 58.5% 73.6% 1367 220 6.6% 10.47 2,748 443 Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 8.69 1379 226 184 -18.2% -47.0% 56.1% 1551 250 10.6% 11.51 2,509 404 Mon 54 -58.33% -56.1% 4.02 1433 235 72 -60.9% -60.9% 33.3% 1623 262 11.4% 24.85 2,181 351 Tue 53 -1.85% -52.8% 3.95 1486 244 63 -12.5% -62.3% 18.9% 1686 272 11.6% 25.32 1,987 320 Wed 43 -18.87% -54.5% 3.20 1529 251 51 -19.0% -62.8% 18.6% 1737 280 11.7% 31.21 1,984 319 Thu 39 -9.30% -53.7% 2.91 1568 257 45 -11.8% -60.5% 15.4% 1782 287 11.8% 34.41 1,940 312 Fri 42 7.69% -51.8% 3.13 1610 264 Sat 62 47.62% -52.2% 4.62 1672 274 Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 4.32 1730 284 Average Proj 371 Str8 Up TF/FF Day TF4 FF7 %Cume TF4 Fri to Thu FF7 F/Su 1 195 398 104.3% Yuan $$$ +/- Yuan $$$ +/- TF v FF S/M 2 223 184 39.4% Wk1 1045 171 1000 161 -4.3% S/T 3 213 167 18.8% Wk2 524 86 -49.9% 782 126 -21.8% 49.4% M/W 4 123 137 17.5% Wk3 256 42 -51.1% 390 63 -50.1% 52.3% Proj w Ap 30 T/Th 5 112 114 15.5% Wk4 81 13 -68.4% 300 48 -23.1% 270.4% Proj w M1,2.3 W/F 6 95 142 18.9% Wk5 42 7 -48.1% 75 12 -75.0% 78.6% Th/S 7 84 225 30.8% Tot 1947.4 319 2547 411 30.8% F/Su 8 87 184 37.0% S/M 9 130 72 28.7% S/T 10 118 63 22.2% M/W 11 54 51 21.2% T/Th 12 53 45 20.0% Total 1486 1782 19.9% Tot $ 244 287 18.0% Proj$ 30 319 376 18.0% Drops were steep this week but it still out performed TF4s second summer Thursday by 15%. The weekend bump should be larger from Thursday being that it is not summer. Looking for at least 5x Thursday like last week for 37.5m and a cume of 325m+. This size of this number is doubly important as it could be mirrored next weekend during the holidays.
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7M+ Thursday?
What kinda of increase can we expect through out the week?
Last weekend did 5 times thursday.hopefully at least that.
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So china has nearly reached 20% of OS BO. I think we see a slow down in growth soon. Less than +10% in the next year or two and some flat years soon to follow. They say China will pass US BO in a few years. I think they flatten out or have nominal gains once $7-8B is reached. I don't see them exceeding 25% of OS
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Yep. $20m for F7 should be locked
gotto do 25+ w GW bump. sat n sunday were good numbers. a little WOM will help
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No, it would be higher.
-19% for the exchange rates
+25% for the admissions
25 > 19
Thank you for pointing out 25 is greater than 19. I had my doubts until now.
you need a 25% increase in admissions to offset a 20% drop in currency
Adm 000 Tix price XR $ tot IM3 2064 8.2 1.35 22904 TA2 2500 8.2 1.075 22091 -3.55% I guestimated -6% its -3.55%
However I just looked up the XRate for may 12 and may 13 and they were 128. and 129.6. down 16% and 1t%. so it is up slightly against both. a 20.5% increase in admissions is need for 17% XR drop. 19% increase for 16%
Adm 000 Tix price XR $ tot IM3 2064 8.2 1.296 21988 TA2 2500 8.2 1.075 22091 0.47% Adm 000 Tix price XR $ tot TA1 2041 8.2 1.28 21475 TA2 2500 8.2 1.075 22091 2.87% -
Do we know how Avengers or IM3 did with 3d share.
Cine-directors is projecting 2.5m admissions for Opening WEEK. Do we know Avengers or IM3 OW.
That would be 25% higher than both
Avengers O/W: 2,041,362
IM 3: 2,064,40
Total admissions
That would be down 6% in $$
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Not the best start. But decent enough.
I think lack of competitions and holidays should make up for lesser WOM.
How can there be a legitimate audience rating or WOM when no one has seen it yet?
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Eraly Friday Showtimes
FF7 - 36.4% (Thurs - 53.4%)
The Left Ear - 27.1%
Home - 14.7%
Sabotage - 9.6%
33% drop is not bad.
Can still do 40m+ with those amount of showtimes.
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TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- Last Week % BO -OW Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Last Week TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume TF4 Mltplr DayxM +OW $Proj Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 9.07 754 124 184 -47.0% 49.5% 582 94 -24.0% 11.03 2,421 390 Tues 112 -8.9% 8.25 866 142 167 -9.2% 48.8% 749 121 -14.9% 12.12 2,416 389 Wed 95 -15.7% 6.97 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 886 143 -9.3% 14.35 2,358 380 Thur 84 -11.0% 6.21 1045 171 114 -16.8% 35.4% 1000 161 -5.8% 16.10 2,228 359 Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 6.42 1132 186 142 24.6% 63.0% 1142 184 -0.7% 15.58 2,604 419 Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 9.55 1262 207 225 58.5% 73.6% 1367 220 6.6% 10.47 2,748 443 Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 8.69 1379 226 184 -18.2% -47.0% 56.1% 1551 250 10.6% 11.51 2,509 404 Mon 54 -58.33% -56.1% 4.02 1433 235 72 -60.9% -60.9% 33.3% 1623 262 11.4% 24.85 2,181 351 Tue 53 -1.85% -52.8% 3.95 1486 244 63 -12.5% -62.3% 18.9% 1686 272 11.6% 25.32 1,987 320 Wed 43 -18.87% -54.5% 3.20 1529 251 51 -19.0% -62.8% 18.6% 1737 280 11.7% 31.21 1,984 319 Thu 39 -9.30% -53.7% 2.91 1568 257 Fri 42 7.69% -67.6% 3.13 1610 264 Sat 62 47.62% -47.4% 4.62 1672 274 Sun 58 -6.45% 7.4% 4.32 1730 284 Average Proj 377 -
A movie like F7 that will do 300M+ isn't it better to maximize OW #'s so more can stay in China. I don't think a local film would do better than say AOU OW. To me it hurts China seeing they could make more, no?
more money would be made by theaters but then less entertainment money is available for local films.
The bigger picture is that china doesn't like to see money shipped out of the country no matter the product. To placate them we put factories in their countries for items sold locally and as you know Hollywood is co producing films so that more money stays in China keeping them happy. Hollywood is happy because they now risk less money producing and marketing a film up front in the event its a bomb and are getting a nice return when they perform well in china
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But they do make a % of what it makes?
the theaters do but 100% of the money stays in China when its a Chinese film and provides thousands of jobs. Reduce foreign choices that may be more desired and a moviegoer will have no choice but opt for something local.
If the 4b in BO was the amount Chinese were able or willing to spend last year and if all OS releases were released in China and not restricted to 30 days, would it have been approx. 50/50 for local and imports? Doubt it.
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I tried to take the inflation into account, that usually mitigates a bit these fluctuations.
I thought there wasn't any or nominal. Tix maybe increased 4% in the US since 2012 but dropping 3d attendance negate that
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4.5m x 6.22 x 1.32 = 37m
37m/(6.22 x 1.07) = 5.5m admissions
22% increase to break even
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Why do they sabotage a movie? What benefit is there?
Chinese are protectionists against imports, They limit, tax or outright prohibit many imports to ensure their own products thrive. movies are a fine example of their practices
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Exactly, David Poland of Movie City News wrote a blog post just recently about this right here.
http://moviecitynews.com/2015/04/weekend-estimates-by-ex-kladina/
I don't agree with everything David states (he doesn't believe in trying to use adjusted grosses for various reasons) but I do agree that China boxoffice going forward is a major game changer. I hesitate to put an asterisks on anything but when you consider China will be surpassing domestic boxoffice and become the number one market in the world and future films will literally be putting up 500 million grosses in an expanding market that is noteworthy and must be taken into account with all past film comparisons.
This china bump is only going to apply to a few movies a year.. If it propels 1B films 300-500m closer to 2B, well that's just making up for declining ticket sales for the last 30 years. A film has to do 2B ww to beat Jaws ET SW Exorcist , Dom and established markets are still shrinking. This "bump" is just making up the difference of this 30 year decline in a matter of a few years, In the end the studios love a headline, that's why they don't adjust for inflation or report ticket sales. They like to announce that its a top ten dom or ww, which they get to do every year do to inflation and expanding markets. There are just a few thousand of us that follow BO and care about the stats. 7B others aren't aware or concerned. All they hear is the headline and that's what the studios will feed them. If there is an asterisk for china for 2014 (TF4s pop)then you need one for talkies 1927, TV 1951, WW population has doubled since 1968, Cable 1980, VCR 1984, Quick DVD/VCR late 90s, internet piracy early 2000's and now rapid china expansion. to name a few Some had slow positive/negative impacts others were fast,
China;s economy will slow down. All do. When that happens so will the BO. They will not be passing Dom anytime soon, A bust will happen before then and BO will flatten out.
what is WW BO? anyone know? DOM was 10.5b, China was 4b last year? no idea what the rest is including all films. I would like to see the number for the rest of OS. China is close to 20% of the ww population sans dom. I would think that 20% +/-2.5% of overall OS would be their target to get to and rapid growth ceases.
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TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- % BO -OW Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume TF4 Mltplr DayxM +OW $Proj Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 9.07 754 124 184 -47.0% 49.5% 582 94 -24.0% 11.03 2,421 390 Tues 112 -8.9% 8.25 866 142 167 -9.2% 48.8% 749 121 -14.9% 12.12 2,416 389 Wed 95 -15.7% 6.97 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 886 143 -9.3% 14.35 2,358 380 Thur 84 -11.0% 6.21 1045 171 114 -16.8% 35.4% 1000 161 -5.8% 16.10 2,228 359 Fri 87 3.4% 6.42 1132 186 142 24.6% 63.0% 1142 184 -0.7% 15.58 2,604 419 Sat 130 48.8% 9.55 1262 207 225 58.5% 73.6% 1367 220 6.6% 10.47 2,748 443 Sun 118 -9.0% 8.69 1379 226 184 -18.2% 56.1% 1551 250 10.6% 11.51 2,509 404 Mon 54 -58.33% 4.02 1433 235 72 -60.9% 33.3% 1623 262 11.4% 24.85 2,181 351 Tue 53 -1.85% 3.95 1486 244 63 -12.5% 18.9% 1686 272 11.6% 25.32 1,987 320 Wed 43 -18.87% 3.20 1529 251 Thu 39 -9.30% 2.91 1568 257 Fri 42 7.69% 3.13 1610 264 Sat 62 47.62% 4.62 1672 274 Sun 58 -6.45% 4.32 1730 284 AvePro 384 Str8 Up TF4 1st Week FF7 2nd Week TF/FF Day TF4 FF7 %Cume Day Yuan % Ch Total $ Tot Yuan % Ch vs TF4 Total $ Tot F/Su 1 195 398 104.3% Fri 195 195 32 142 -27.2% 142 23 S/M 2 223 184 39.4% Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 225 58.5% 0.9% 367 59 S/T 3 213 167 18.8% Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 184 -18.2% -13.5% 551 89 M/W 4 123 137 17.5% Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 72 -60.9% -41.5% 623 100 T/Th 5 112 114 15.5% Tue 112 -8.9% 866 142 63 -12.5% -43.9% 686 111 W/F 6 95 142 18.9% Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 Th/S 7 84 225 30.8% Thu 84 -11.0% 1045 171 F/Su 8 87 184 37.0% S/M 9 130 72 28.7% TF4 Fri to Thu FF7 S/T 10 118 63 22.2% Yuan $$$ +/- Yuan $$$ +/- TF v FF M/W 11 Wk1 1045 171 1000 161 -4.3% T/Th 12 Wk2 524 86 -49.9% 791 128 -20.9% 51.1% Partial Proj Total 1379 1686 22.2% Wk3 256 42 -51.1% 400 65 -49.4% 56.3% Proj w Ap 30 Tot $ 226 272 20.3% Wk4 81 13 -68.4% 300 48 -25.0% 270.4% Proj w M1,2.3 Proj$ 30 319 384 20.3% Wk5 42 7 -48.1% 75 12 -75.0% 78.6% Tot 1947.4 319 2566 414 31.8% Numbers keep getting lower than I thought after that amazing Saturday number. Fingers crossed for a 40m + weekend. The more I look the May numbers, the more I think we're in for a surprise.
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Does F7 still have an outside chance of 400?
If it can hold above 40m this weekend for a 330m+ total, the May holiday could give it a chance. Here is last years numbers:
April 30 to May 3 Bump Classmate CA2 April Yuan May Yuan Pre/wk April Yuan Prev/wk May Yuan Prev/wk W A30 29 Wed 7.0 W A30 5.5 -14% Thu Thu M1 51 Thu 7.0 -45% Th M1 11 57% Fri 22.0 Fri M2 46 109% Fri 5.8 -51% Fri M2 13 124% Sat 39.3 Sat M3 32 -19% Sat 10.4 53% Sat M3 8 -23% Sun 36.5 Sun 13 -64% Sun 9.0 -53% Sun closed Mon 21.4 Mon 4.7 -47% Tue 18.7 Tue 2.8 -61% Fri-Sat 61 Fri-Sat 78 27.2% W-Sat 30.2 W-Sat 38 24.2% Multiply 8.3 x Tues= W-Sat Multiply 13.5 xTues= W-Sat There is a 4 day bump for the holidays, Apr 30th is the night before it starts and sees an increase. CA2, dealing with a smaller number here, bumped 24% wed to sat. Classmate which opened the Friday before saw a similar increase for Friday and Saturday. this pattern could bring in $50m, Another way to look at it is the 4/29 multiple. The multiple times Tues the 29th was huge last year. 8 CM and 13 for CA2. If FF7 could come in at 30mY on Wed the 29th then it could be worth 250mY-360mY, $40-60m, if it could follow suit and bring it close enough to 400m for the final week to have a chance.
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I'm pretty sure this has alreasy happened in China with Pacific Rim
yes but pacrim was a disappointment in Dom and therefore easy to beat.
TLS wad a bit of a feat for Japan to beat DOM but it was a modest hit not a blockbuster TF$ was big, but underperformed for the franchise. This will however be the first over performing dom blockbuster to get beat.
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted
Whats the anticipation for the new releases this week? Either of them big?
Are they opening on Wed or thur for the holiday?
Do you think FF7 will have 20%+ showtimes?