sgchn40

Did you read the details of the article? It does not refute that velociraptors and other theropods are covered with feathers.

Feathered dinosaurs were conclusively established as a scientific fact based on fossils from China. It is China's greatest contribution to dinosaur research. I personally will be extremely disappointed if JW does well in China.

Indeed, my hunch is that the boom will continue in the smaller cities for a while longer, until ppl find a better way to spend their cash but overall, the market should have some more leg. Next year will be interesting. Things happen so quickly in China actually. Have you seen the charts for Shanghai Stock exchange in the past two weeks for example. So boom and bust is not unexpected. If I am not wrong though, the box office in U.S. has been on an upward trajectory on the whole for the last 40 years, with no visible prolong slump. I would say that internet and China's ever expanding transportation network are redistributing wealth in unpredecented manner. Alibaba and other such firms are allowing villages and towns to participate in economic growth. Does that translate to more people in less "prosperous" cities going to movies? We shall see. As you are predicting single digit growth next year, it will be very interesting to see if it is indeed true.

Did US box office follow Nasdaq and other tech bubbles?

That will take 12 years... remember Titanic and Avatar?

Do you think the first billion dollar movie will happen in China or Domestic? Because Nolan may be able to achieve that in domestic... but his record in China is not exactly stellar...

And it's inevitable. By the way, I am curious why you think that a Christopher Nolan film will be the first $1 billion movie. Is it because Cameron will be too old by then?

Do you think the gross will be 1/4 domestic, 1/4 China, 1/2 rest of the world? If so, I think 3 billion is possible as long as it matches the first avatar.

This is what I mean when I wrote earlier of the impact of lower ticket price. The media is saying that it is now moving from a luxury good to a mass commodity. Would be interesting to tally the number at the end of this year.

Yup, I think so too. But that will perhaps still count as Hollywood? I doubt China can penetrate US without working with the big studios in Hollywood, even if they control AMC. Who will that director? James Wan?

What if China produce an English film?

Would it be a different picture if we take into account just urban GDP, GDP growth and urban income growth? I may be wrong but urban income growth in China is about 10% from 2012 to 2013. I am wondering if this 10% growth is a big contributor to the growth as well and hence if continue will power Chinese box office for a while before it peters off as you have shared. http://www.statista.com/statistics/259451/annual-per-capita-disposable-income-of-rural-and-urban-households-in-china/

The problem is age I think. He is already 61 this year. Given the intensity and energy he puts into making a film, I am doubtful his body is able to sustain when he is close to 70 years old.

This is an impressive table, MF Lawrence! I have two questions. I supposed you assumed that the relationship between box office per capita GDP and per capita GDP is a linear regression. Have you plotted the chart? Secondly, the reason why I brought in the factor of lower tickets is because it has an impact on attendance. Some Chinese media predicts that lowering the ticket price by 10% will result in at least 30% increase in sales. It is happening now. In other words, regardless of economic growth, the question is whether the market has reached its current potential. How much influence do you see lower tickets have on the box office per capita?

Chill please I was just clarifying what domestic box office includes, especially since Canada is included. Hence the question. I am from Singapore. Many people thought we are part of China when we are more than 1000km away.

In 2014, Chinese urban population is around 54%, which works out to be around 730 million people. Say we take 7%, it will be 51 million admissions. Hence if we go by Russia, then we are looking at China's box office shrinking... I still think that we should follow Japan at the very least. Assuming it is 16% of urban population as you said, then it will be 1.85 times of F7's admission at 116.8m. This is just based on current urban population. China will continue to urbanize especially with their hukou reforms. So, I really think that it is within the next few years. The max I give is 2020, much more likely earlier.

AOU's average ticket price is rmb$38. The admission is about 63.8 million counts, which is about 5% of the population. By the way, the promotion for some AOU shows in Beijing and other rmajor cities is a ticket plus popcorn and drinks at rmb$18.80. In other words, $1-2 usd tickets are already present. Say, the average tickets fall by 10% while the average admission grows by 30% each year to around 10% of the population watching a blockbuster before it stabilises, then we can expect that the Chinese market to be around $10.28billion usd in 2018. In this model, the price drop is very aggressive. By the way, as an Asian, I believe a better comparison of attendance will be Korea and Japan. Their blockbusters can be attended by 30% to 50% of the population.

There are two factors. How many more Chinese will be movie-goers and how cheap will the tickets get? Entgroup reported recently in their Chinese edition that cheaper tickets will most likely become the norm. I assume 10% cheaper ticket create 30% more attendance. The disproportionate increase is based on the cheaper pre-sales of AOU and F7 helping them break records. I believe less than 10% of the population watch F7. Which means there is still immense potential to grow. If the frenetic pace of theatre construction continues, then I will say that within 3 years, it will match or even surpass USA at around 9 to 10 billion in 2018.

Is Puerto Rico included? Do you think that if Canada is not included, we will see China passing domestic a year earlier?

I am wondering if you think there will ever be a day when a film from China takes the box office crown in the international market. Would Hollywood continue to dominate infinitely? For clarity, this film should make more money outside of China and top the yearly international chart.

May I understand why domestic box office includes Canada? Is it because annexation is coming soon?