[Wednesday Actuals: IO - 5M, JW - 3.7M]

BY the time all the American reviews are in Minions is likely going to be very close to the 60% mark on RT imo.

it's avg rating isn't that high - only 6.2/10 and has been dropping. At one time it had 32 positive to 10 negative reviews (76% - mostly foreign) - the American reviews are running about 55/45 positive, but fairly tepid positive - as shown by the average.

 

All that doesn't matter as it is going to open really big - but i'm interestsed to see how its weeks 2 and 3 are. How are the legs. MY kids want to see it so either my wife or i will have to see it - or maybe we just send the older one with the younger one - but if the quality isn't strong it might affect legs. The initial viewing decision is usually based on the chld, multiple viewings often require it to be strong enough that the parent wants to go back to see it.

 

Much like Cars 2 the whole purpose of this movie is a toy grab. They've admitted they have released it when they have to try to maximize toy sales. Disney made over $1B in toy sales off of Cars 2, I suspect a similar number is likely for Minion toys.

 

IO is certainly going to be hit some by it, but i doubt Disney is overly worried. IO will pass MU on Friday and will pass MI and Up next week moving up to third among Pixar movies. I'd place a large wager that given the bigger than expected success of IO that they will have emotion figures for Disney Infinity 3.0 by Christmas.

[Tuesday Numbers | Inside Out - 6.4M; Jurassic World - 4.8M; Terminator Genisys - 4M; Magic Mike XXL - 3.2M (Actuals Page 13)]

IO's numbers have been remarkable the last two days; it'd be looking at a sub-20% decrease this weekend if not for Minions. Still, it could certainly drop under 45% given how deflated Saturday and (to an extent) Sunday was.

 

 

IO has outgrossed TS3 same day 6 out of the last 8 days - going back to last Tuesday. (TS3 July 4th was on a Sunday its year, causing a deflated Sunday but huge Monday). They were both released 2 weeks before July 4th weekend.

 

we'll have to wait and see how much Minions impacts it, but it has been doing quite well - currently $50M behind TS3 same day and $57M ahead of Finding Nemo (original run) same day - Nemo was of course a May release.

 

I saw IO with my whole family last weekend - 2nd time for my wife and son, first time for me and my college age daughter and it was the best movie i've seen this year so far. Hope it holds up well.