RamblinRed
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Posts posted by RamblinRed
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Pretty weak weekend overall. 2nd yr in a row MDW has been largely a dud.
Specifically on CA:CW. I thought it would open lower than AOU but end up at or just over it with better WOM and critic reviews. I was wrong and that is no big deal imo. I don't think Piracy is a big deal - it might have cost it a couple million - but not $50MM sorry. I don't think travel is a big deal - people travel every MDW, just because driving is higher this year does not automatically mean people see fewer movies. Once again, maybe a million or two here or there, but that isn't the main issue.
There is a difference because causation and correlation.
People will see movies if they are really interested in seeing a movie - see, TJB or DP or Zoo. If not they won't.
I am starting to wonder if CB fatigue is starting to set in a little. I'm not saying that CB adaptations won't make tons of money. But it may be getting harder to keep hitting 400MM+ numbers unless you really bring something new to the table from a GA perspective. The market has been pretty saturated with them for over a decade now and just like all genres they will end up going through cycles.
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4 hours ago, narniadis said:
Well today marks Day 40 for TJB being over 1m and should be the last consecutive day that it happens... and in doing so it passed BvS for #4 on the chart with it's sights on Zoo by the end of the weekend.
All around a stronger Tuesday than I had expected. I agree with Grim that the continued spread of "discount tuesday" particularly over the last 12 months or so has really changed the way some things behave.
This Monday and Tuesday is also the first time since its first week that TJB's weekday numbers have been higher than the same weekday numbers for Zoo (days 39 and 40). probably passes Zoo on Saturday.
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11 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:
TJB isn't far behind. When will it pass Zoo? Friday?
Great holds for both.
So CA should pass Deadpool on Friday. TJB should pass Zoo on Fri/Saturday and Disney just keeps in raking the money.
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Typical number for CA. Looks to be still headed for 420-430 final take.
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23 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
My goodness, THE JUNGLE BOOK and ZOOTOPIA!
Those holds are just amazing. Sub 2% and sub 20% WoW. No wonder why it takes Disney so long to post these days, they have more money to count than all the other studios combined, by a power of 2.
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So next weekend we are looking at Disney having three 300MM films all in the top 8 at the same time. Can't imagine that has happened very many times.
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Maybe someone should start a Disney 3B DOM club.
What the above totals show is that while my gut is that Disney would fall just a little short, if they have even one more breakout hit from the ones not expected to be big (Alice, Doctor Strange, Moana, Pete's Dragon or BFG) then getting to 3B would actually be in reach.
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So if it goes over 300 on Sunday, TJB should pass 300 this weekend as well giving Disney 3, 300MM films in one week all in the top 10.
Just looking at the numbers I realized Disney has already grossed over 3B WW so far this year.
The 4 movies they have released so far in 2016 - CA:CW, TJB, Zoo, TFH have grossed 2.5B as of Sunday. TFA grossed over 600MM WW after Dec 31, so that pushes Disney over 3B in WW grosses so far without even counting any of the little additional holdover money.
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6 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:
Yes Memorial Day weekend. In Mid June they have Finding Dory and are pretty much done until Dr. Strange, Monma, and Rogue One hit.
as usual not alot of movies but it will be interesting to see what their final take is. Can't see them coming in below $2.5B domestic at this point for 2016
They have
Alice
Dory
The BFG
Pete's Dragon
Queen of Katwe
Doctor Strange
Moana
Rogue One
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My feeling since reviews started coming out was that Civil War would open a little lower than Ultron but finish slightly higher due to better legs an no JW.
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1 hour ago, cannastop said:
Bro, the legs were ambutated way before the month of May.
I know, just pointing out its drop yesterday was awful (and its drops the last 10 days or so had been relatively decent).
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You can see that CA is going to cut off any legs that BvS had left. It's drop compared to the other movies is quite large. With that type of drop on Thursday it looks like the Bunny will pass Bats and Supes on Sunday.
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1 hour ago, FilmBuff said:
Trifecta of Zootopia, Civil War, Jungle Book.
It certainly looks like it is going to be the Mouse House's year.
Not only those three but TFA did over $285MM after Jan 1st.
They are going to cross $1B either Friday or Saturday depending upon how big CA opens. That will be more than 5 weeks quicker than Uni's big run last year.
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Another good hold for the bunny.
Actually beat out The Boss for 4th by $182.
TJB and Zoo were the only movies in the top 15 to increase on Thursday.
The Mouse House is going to cross $1B DOM on May 6, may 7th at the latest. 127-128 days, almost 40 days faster than Uni's run last year.
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17 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:
Studios get maybe 50% of the WW gross (25% from China), so $850 million is far from a huge profit (if it's profitable at all).
I believe I read somewhere that WB needed BvS to make $800MM worldwide to show a profit. So it should be profitable, but probably not anywhere near the profit level they were hoping for, and certainly not the critical and GA reaction they were hoping for in launching the DCEU.
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7 would be a good number. Family films have been dropping over 80% alot of Monday's (including Zootopia), so a 77-78% drop would be a solid number.
i was thinking 6.5 today.
I'll be shocked if it doesn't do better than BvS 2nd weekend. I'm thinking over 60M.
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14 hours ago, Krissykins said:
I thought I seen a tweet that Jungle Book was underestimated?
But it it was overestimated by ~ $350,000.
TJB was overestimated by roughly 300K on both Friday and Saturday, but underestimated by roughly 300K on Sunday.
So the overall weekend was slightly overestimated (by three tenths of 1%), but Sunday was underestimated (by 1%)
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11 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:
It'll be interesting how similar JB and Zootopia's runs will be, moving forward. They should finish close to each other in terms of DOM/WW grosses. It'll also be interesting to see what Disney chooses to bundle for 'fudging' with Civil War. Zoo has enough to get to about $330-335m (Incidentally the same number AIW had), and give The Jungle Book legs between Maleficent and Cinderella and it's in the same range. (With Civil War in the fourth week, this seems pretty reasonable)
It's insane that Disney could have three films making a combined $1b DOM for the year before hitting the end of May. The mouse house is in for the kill this year, and that's barring Finding Dory, Doctor Strange, and Rogue One.
Disney is going to likely fly past $1B the first weekend of May. it was at $621MM after last weekend. So after this weekend it should be around $735MM. Should be close to $900MM DOM before CA opens.
Disney and WB are really the only 2 studios that are fairly consistent year to year in their DOM grosses and not having really poor years.
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I was doing a little research into grosses earlier this week.
Looking at the top studios but talking about Disney specifically today.
Starting with Movies released in 2010 through today (this decade) Disney's releases have avg $131MM in DOM take. To put that in perspective, Paramount was 2nd - with an $86MM avg take - though it should be pointed out that is due largely to movies they released in 2010 and 2011 - since 2011 Paramount's avg has been sub $50MM.
Disney releases fewer films than any of the other major studios and I believe has higher production costs - but they hit more than anybody else.
In 6+ yrs they are currently $300MM behind Warners in total DOM over that period, despite releasing half as many films (80 vs 162).
Fox got off to a great start this year but Disney is going to catch them by the first week in may if not sooner.
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Deadline is reducing its intial projections (-47%) on BvS for the weekend from its initial.
UPDATE, 12:19 PM: Warner Bros’ Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice is now looking like it will come in lower with a decline of 50%-55% for $23.1M-$25.65M, which is just shy of the three-century mark with a running cume through its third weekend of $296.4M-$298.9M. Now, Warners wasn’t expecting the Zack Snyder film to cross $300M this weekend, but rather during CinemaCon this coming week. I hear that the magic number internally which will really make Warner execs truly happy is $800M.
Despite buzz that advance ticket sales are clicking for Melissa McCarthy headliner The Boss, the R-rated pic is now looking at an $8M Friday — including last night’s near-$1M — and a $21M FSS. Older women plan their visits to the cinema in groups, so there’s a chance its ticket sales could improve by nightfall.
STX Entertainment’s first-person shooter Hardcore Henry is looking at $2.4M for today, coming in closer to the lower end of its projections with $7M. Fox Searchlight’s Demolition isn’t set to wow with a $1M-$1.5M opening for the weekend. More later.
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1 hour ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:
And JW had better WOM & reception from critics & audience.
Just wondering, why several people here expect a huge superhero-movie to win the year, box office wise? When clearly, the latest superhero-films from Marvel & DC haven't won either DOM or WW.....post-Avengers 1. We always get surprises like American Sniper winning 2014, DOM-wise & Jurassic World winning the summer 2015.....etc. It's mostly never a superhero-movie like people thought....but gets overpredicted to win the year.
IO and JW were so much fun to follow last summer.
JW won the first 2 weekends they were paired, with IO slipping past the third weekend, JW back in front the fourth weekend and then IO the rest of the run.
On the weekly numbers IO passed JW the second week and stayed in front the rest of the way, but both the weekend and weekly numbers were always so close.
Here are their weekend and weekly performances through the summer
Jun 19- 21 JW 106.6 IO 90.4
Jun 26-28 JW 54.5 IO 52.3
Jul 3-5 IO 29.8 JW 29.2
Jul 10-12 JW 18.2 IO 17.7
Jul 17-19 IO 11.54 JW 11.45
Jul 24-26 IO 7.4 JW 7.2
Jul 31-Aug 2 IO 4.5 JW 3.9
Aug 7-9 IO 2.7 JW 1.9
Aug 14-16 IO 2.0 JW 1.2
Jun 19-25 JW 149.6 IO 132.8
Jun 26-Jul 2 IO 83.3 JW 81.5
Jul 3-9 IO 50.4 JW 45.2
Jul 10-16 IO 28.1 JW 27.2
Jul 17-23 IO 18.2 JW 17.1
Jul 24-30 IO 12.1 JW 10.8
Jul 31 - Aug 6 IO 7.6 JW 6.0
Aug 7-13 IO 4.6 JW 3.0
Aug 14-20 IO 3.4 JW 1.9
Aug 21-27 IO 2.4 JW 1.3
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On 2/10/2016 at 4:17 PM, Captain Craig said:
I'm not double dipping. I'll Netflix it if I just feel the need to see TFA before I get the 9 Film Collectors Set Star Wars Saga on Blu-Ray sometime in 2020.
TFA will not be on Netflix.
TFA is the last movie contracted from Disney to Starz before Disney's contract moves to Netflix. So TFA will be the last Disney movie the Starz gets and the last Disney movie that Netflix misses out on.
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Part of the reason Disney is willing to drop the screens is it is not just a movie company and that makes a difference.
They would rather get a film on DVD 2-3 weeks earlier than keep it in theaters longer because they will make more money by doing that. When movies are only about 15% of your revenue, you are going to be less concerned with how long you keep a film in theaters and what the counts are. (not that they don't care - just I don't think they care as much as some movie companies).
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Congrats to TFA for crossing 900M and 2B.
That is a heck of a hold for Super Bowl Weekend.
If it starts having small drops it could actually finish quite well. After this weekend my model has it back up close to 940M for a finish.
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MEH-MORIAL DAY WEEKEND BOX OFFICE | Abandon all hope, the box office is dead. 3 day weekend #s X-Men 65M, Alice 28.1M, Angry Birds 18.7M, Civil War 15.1M, Neighbors 9.1M. Bad openings, horrible holdovers.
in Numbers and Data
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You didn't read my post carefully.
I said it might be setting in, not that it had.
I also was specific in saying that doesn't mean they won't make money - just that it will be a little tougher to get the higher grosses.