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RamblinRed last won the day on January 11

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About RamblinRed

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  1. My wife is still one who even though she reads all of the stuff on COVID, doesn't trust that you can't get it from touch (which is true, you can get it from touch, just more likely to get it through the air) so she won't even think of going anywhere where she doesn't see significant ongoing cleaning. She is also concerned that part of the reason for the UK variant may be that it is more able to translate through touch than previous variants. (Obviously we have no study of that yet either way). But, I doubt i will be able to get my wife to go to a move theater for at least another 12-18 months, frankly I don't think I will get her to go anywhere inside with groups of people (restuarants, arenas, stores) for at least 12-18 months. I'm the only one in the family currently who will go to a store and almost all our shopping that is not done completely online is curbside pickup.
  2. Here's the Wash Post's article on the vaccine doses for those that can read it. IMO there is alot of wishcasting going on (and who can blame anyone for that), that all the of supply chain issues are going to resolve quickly, that all the logistical issues at both the Federal and State levels are going to resolve quickly. When in reality that is fairly unlikely. Basically what happened is the Trump administration changed its approach at the end of December and started sending out all doses instead of holding 2nd doses in reserve, but didn't really communicate that to anyone. The official explanation is that they felt confident in the supply chain so they didn't need to hold any back for 2nd doses. That could very well be true, it could also be they just wanted to show more doses being distributed to states so they took the backup supplies and shipped them without telling anyone it was the backup supplies. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/15/trump-vaccine-reserve-used-up/ When Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced this week that the federal government would begin releasing coronavirus vaccine doses held in reserve for second shots, no such reserve existed, according to state and federal officials briefed on distribution plans. The Trump administration had already begun shipping out what was available beginning at the end of December, taking second doses directly off the manufacturing line. Now, health officials across the country who had anticipated their extremely limited vaccine supply as much as doubling beginning next week are confronting the reality that their allocations will remain largely flat, dashing hopes of dramatically expanding access for millions of elderly people and those with high-risk medical conditions. The shift, in both cases, had to do with increased confidence in the supply chain, so that Operation Warp Speed leaders felt they could reliably anticipate the availability of doses for booster shots But it also meant there was no stockpile of second doses waiting to be shipped Those in line for their second shots are expected to get them on schedule since states are still getting regular vaccine shipments. But state and local officials say they are angry and bewildered by the shifting directions and changing explanations of supply. The health director in Oregon, Patrick M. Allen, was so disturbed that he wrote Azar on Thursday demanding an explanation. “If true, this is extremely disturbing, and puts our plans to expand eligibility at grave risk,” Allen added. “Those plans were made on the basis of reliance on your statement about “releasing the entire supply” you have in reserve. If this information is accurate, we will be unable to begin vaccinating our vulnerable seniors on Jan. 23, as planned.” But the issue of supply was most troubling to state health officials. “States were shocked and surprised that they did not see an increase in their allocations, and when they asked for explanations, some of them were told there was not a large stockpile of second doses to draw from,” said an official working with numerous states on vaccination planning who spoke on the condition of anonymity to recount sensitive conversations. “They thought they were getting more doses and they planned for more doses and opened up to 65 and up, thinking they were getting more.”
  3. I still think people are underestimating the huge logistical effort this is. We will get there, it won't be as fast as we hope, but hopefully won't be as long as some fear. The US hasn't tried to roll out something of this size in generations. i hope we can hit the 100M in 100 days, though i'm somewhat skeptical until I see otherwise. Just changing administrations doesn't mean the government is all of a sudden going to become super efficient. Being somewhat competent would help. My bigger fear right now is will the new variant overtake the US at a faster rate than the US can vaccinate its population. If that occurs then improving the rate at which we administer vaccines is still a good thing, but would still lead to high numbers for an elevated amount of time as the rate of spread of the new variant outpaces the rate of vaccine administration. New, more contagious coronavirus variants mean US must double down on mitigation, vaccination, CDC says From CNN’s Maggie Fox The threat of new, more contagious variants of the coronavirus means the US must double down on efforts to protect people until a large number can be vaccinated, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday. A variant first identified in Britain known as B.1.1.7 is being found in the US as well, and modeling indicates it could worsen the already terrible spread of the virus across the country, the CDC researchers said. “Multiple lines of evidence indicate that B.1.1.7 is more efficiently transmitted than are other SARS-CoV-2 variants,” the CDC team wrote in the agency’s weekly report, the MMWR. “Variant B.1.1.7 has the potential to increase the U.S. pandemic trajectory in the coming months.” That means people need to do more to make sure everyone uses masks, tries harder to maintain social distancing and takes other measures known to reduce the risk of transmission. “Higher vaccination coverage might need to be achieved to protect the public,” the researchers added. Plus, the CDC needs to do more to keep an eye out for new variants, and for the appearance of this one. “CDC has also contracted with several large commercial clinical laboratories to rapidly sequence tens of thousands of SARS-CoV-2– positive specimens each month and has funded seven academic institutions to conduct genomic surveillance in partnership with public health agencies, thereby adding substantially to the availability of timely genomic surveillance data from across the United States,” the team wrote. “In addition to these national initiatives, many state and local public health agencies are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 to better understand local epidemiology and support public health response to the pandemic.” It's not clear just how much more contagious any of the new variants are, the CDC noted. One variant first identified in South Africa and another one found in Japan among travelers from Brazil have yet to show up in US surveillance, the team said. B.1.1.7 has been found in at least 50 countries and in a dozen US states.
  4. This is so sad “As hospitals across California braced this week for a surge in COVID-19 patients who got infected over Christmas, officials relayed painful stories of dying victims’ last moments with their families,” the Los Angeles Times reports. “‘One of the more heartbreaking conversations that our healthcare workers share is about these last words when children apologize to their parents and grandparents for bringing COVID into their homes for getting them sick. And these apologies are just some of the last words that loved ones will ever hear as they die alone,’ Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis said."
  5. Johnson & Johnson faces lag in Covid-19 vaccine production, NYT reports The production pace of the Covid-19 vaccine being developed by drugmaker Johnson & Johnson's subsidiary Janssen appears to be behind schedule. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that Operation Warp Speed's lead manufacturing adviser Dr. Carlo de Notaristefani acknowledged a delay, but said the company might be able to catch up with its original production goals by March. The vaccine is delivered as a one-dose shot could help ramp up vaccination efforts as the United States continues to fight a devastating pandemic. "I agree there was a problem," de Notaristefani told The New York Times. But he added, "Manufacturing of pharmaceuticals is not a black box where you turn the key and start counting." Meanwhile, results from the vaccine's clinical trial are expected soon. Johnson & Johnson could apply for emergency use authorization of its Janssen Covid-19 vaccine around the end of this month, Operation Warp Speed Chief Scientific Adviser Moncef Slaoui said during a briefing on Tuesday. Slaoui said millions of doses should be available by the end of February. Chinese Covid-19 vaccine far less effective than initially claimed, sparking concerns A leading Chinese Covid-19 vaccine developed by Sinovac Biotech was just 50.38% effective in late-stage trials in Brazil, significantly lower than earlier results showed, according to a statement published by the government of Sao Paulo Tuesday. While the number just exceeds the threshold required for regulatory approval, it falls far below the 78% previously announced, raising questions as to the veracity of the data and fueling skepticism over the apparent lack of transparency regarding Chinese vaccines. "The Butantan Institute and the Government of Sao Paulo report that the coronavirus vaccine achieved a 50.38% overall efficacy rate in the clinical study conducted in Brazil, in addition to (an efficacy rate of) 78% for mild cases and 100% for moderate and severe cases of Covid-19. All rates are higher than the 50% level required by the WHO (World Health Organization)," the statement released Tuesday said. The Brazilian state body financed the phase 3 trials of the vaccine -- known as CoronaVac -- which involved 13,000 health workers across eight Brazilian states. On Tuesday, high-ranking members of the Brazilian Health Ministry told CNN affiliate CNN Brasil that "the effectiveness is borderline," and that because it was "at the limit," they would need to wait for the evaluation by the country's health regulatory agency ANVISA. Sinovac Biotech has confidence in its vaccine, it told CNN in a statement on Wednesday. In response to a question about why there are so many different efficacy rates reported, the company said: "The results are from different populations, in different places with different morbidity rates, and therefore they span a relatively large range." The final efficacy rate of the vaccine will be determined by China's drug regulator, the National Medical Production Administration, according to the representative. If you want to track how many doses have actually been administered in the US the Washington Post has a good site for that. You can get down to the state level. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/
  6. i think many are missing the idea that even with the vaccines, that does not mean that mitigation measures are likely to go away in the short term. When theaters start to re-open i would expect there to continue to be mitigation measures such as limited seating per showing. I don't expect those to go away until the fall at the earliest. As long as we have a ranging pandemic stretching health resources that will negatively impact the ability to deliver shots in arms as there is at least some overlap in the resources and personnel needed for those tasks. Syirnges and glass vials are needed in hospitals just as they are need to provide vaccines. Some of the same personnel is likely to be used for both. I fully expect their to be a summer movie season, but it won't be a 'normal' summer movie season imo. I expect numbers to be lower than normal both due to a percentage of the population not feeling comfortable to resume activities and i expect mitigation measures to be in place that will limit cinemas capacity. It's alot easier to lose trust than it is to rebuild it.
  7. There is not going to be anywhere near 65M doses used by end of Feb. Right now US is struggling to vaccinate more than 1M per week and remember every one of those 10M still need a second shot. You are suggesting that US will use 55M more doses in 7 weeks. There is no chance of that happening. That is 8 times the rate we are seeing right now. (and that doesn't even include the need for second doses) Your timelines are way too aggressive. Keep in mind the plan was to have 20M doses used by the end of December and we are only at 10M almost 2 weeks into Jan. We are unlikely to be anywhere near herd immnity level by June. Late fall/early winter would be a much more likely timeframe. Keep in mind with every vaccine we have to go through an approval process and then we have to go through a scaling up process of going from 10K+ doses being made and distributed a week to millions being made and distributed each week. I don't think many grasp the logistical supply chain task that is. No one has scaled up smoothly yet and I don't expect that to change. Every manufacturer will have scaling issues. This is a herculean task and there are bottlenecks at every level right now. Until the current wave of the virus starts to subside it will be almost impossible to ramp up very quickly as that is eating up resources needed to deliver vaccines to people.
  8. Some updated numbers on vaccinations in US Doses distributed to the states - 27,696,150 Doses used - 9,327,128 Also, hope is that the AstraZeneca vaccine might be approved for use in the US toward the end of March after completion of Phase 3 US trials.
  9. Today is almost certainly going to be the worse death day in the US so far. There are already over 2,500 deaths reported and compared to what the number from those same states was yesterdat it was less than half of that. Likely to cross over 4000 and 380K cumulative by the end of the day.
  10. This is why the ones who clamor for herd immunity are so off their rocker. 22% would mean you are only at about 1/4 to 1/3 of where you need to be. So 2-3X more the hospitalizations and deaths still to come. No health system in the world can handle those types of numbers, they would all crash. It's awful again here were I live. Don't remember if I mentioned this but my best friends dad is in ICU. He needs dialysis as part of the treatment (it has been attacking his kidneys) but so many techs have been out sick with COVID that he has only been able to get that twice since he went into the hospital. Nobody is really talking about it much yet, but there is already significant rationing of care going on because there simply are not enough personnel to do everything.
  11. First, my mom and dad were able to get their first vaccine shots yesterday in GA and have their second shots set for Feb 2nd. That was very happy news for me as everywhere else has been miserable as my best friend's dad has been in the hospital since Christmas Day with COVID (it has been attacking his kidneys but so many techs at the hospital are out sick with COVID that he has only been able to get dialysis twice since he entered the hospital) and yesterday by son's best friend's dad was admitted to ICU with COVID. i also have a cousin who has been significantly ill with it for over a week. 2nd, numbers starting to rebound. Hospitalizations in the South and West are now worse than the peak of the Midwest's number this fall and the NE is close to passing that peak as well. Here in metro Atlanta almost all the hospitals are full. At the one closest to me they had 19 ambulances parked outside on Saturday because they had no beds available and no other hopsital had beds available to send the ambulances to. The state has re-opened its field hospital, it has 120 beds available, but lack of staffing means they are likely to only to be able to use 60 at most.
  12. Probably the most important thing to remember about reporting right now
  13. THis is an excellent article showing what it took to get the latest relief bill across the finish line. For better and worse, this is what real governing looks like. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/21/how-stimulus-bill-got-done-449722 Just to add to some of the discussion from above, it should be noted that every country has its own culture and the US is no exception. There is a strong mistrust of government built into US culture going all the way back to its founding. At times it can turn destructive (like we are seeing now) and at times it can be helpful. But that mistrust was built into the government itself. Unlike many countries, if a majority of people approve of a policy, that is not good enough. You need more of a supernajority, 60%+, in order to be able to implement policy as a law. That was created from the very beginning with how the Federal government was set up. You have to have a proposed bill that can pass both houses of Congress as well as a potential Presidential veto. And when it comes down to it there are not alot of policies in the US that can clear that 60%+ margin. It also means that anything that passes is going to have to be a compromise.
  14. Chris Christie has cut an ad that is scheduled to run on Fox News, NewsMax and SiriusXM radio for the next 2 weeks. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/16/politics/chris-christie-coronavirus-ad-white-house "This message isn't for everyone. It's for all those people who refuse to wear a mask. You know lying in isolation in ICU for seven days I thought about how wrong I was to remove my mask at the White House," Christie says in the ad. "Today, I think about how wrong it is to let mask wearing divide us, especially as we now know you're twice as likely to get Covid-19 if you don't wear a mask. Because if you don't do the right thing, we could all end up on the wrong side of history. Please wear a mask."
  15. one other note as the death rate continues to climb in the US (7 day avg is currently at 2,560). An avg of just over 2700 deaths per day over the next 33 days would put the US over 400,000 deaths on Inauguration Day. The case numbers we are seeing now as well as hospitalizations are due to Thanksgiving week but deaths are still not primarily the result of Thanksgiving, that will start happening next week as deaths (or the reporting of them) lag around 4 weeks from time of infection. It should also be noted that numbers will start getting wonky again next week as the Holiday period starts and likely won't return to normal until after the New Year. I'm expecting numbers to decline some starting by next Wednesday at the latest and will likely be very inconsistent until the first week of Jan. I would also expect there to be some eye raising numbers in early January as data reporting starts to play catchup to the reality on the previous 2 weeks. The death numbers in December are already the 2nd worst since the pandemic started and we still have 14 days to go.
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