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About RamblinRed

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    Sleeper Hit

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  1. Spike Lee says he won't see a movie in the theaters until there is a vaccine https://www.denofgeek.com/movies/spike-lee-says-hes-not-going-to-movie-theaters-until-vaccine/
  2. I would think drive-ins would do pretty well since it is relatively easy for people to socially distance in that environment.
  3. How many people will come back to theaters and how quickly? http://morningconsult.com/2020/05/22/tracking-consumer-comfort-with-dining-out-and-other-leisure-activities/ This survey suggests not very quickly at all. Only 16% responded they felt it was safe to go back to movie theaters. Men (20%), Millenials (22%) and Republicans (23%) had the highest percentage that felt it would be safe. in terms of when they feel it will be safe to go back to theaters 30% said in the next 2-3 months, 44% in the next 6 months. This could also have a major impact on the fall/Holiday numbers if alot of people are still concerned with being in an enclosed space with others at that point. I'll be interested to see how the theme parks do as they re-open as their numbers were even lower than movies, only 14% considering it safe to go back and only 35% saying it would be safe in the next 6 months.
  4. This is a fun article. A polling of 2,000 Americans where they were asked to rank a dozen activities on a scale of 1-10 - on how risky certain activities where and then comparing it to a group of expert responses. The most interesting results to me were this. First, in general on the majority of activities the respondents rated them more risky than the experts did. The other thing that stood out is that Democrats tended to rank less risky activities as more risky than the experts ranked them and Republicans tended to rank the more risky activities as less risky than the experts did. Basically Democrats were too cautious, Republicans not cautious enough. https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-activity-risk-what-is-safe-poll/
  5. We got official notice last Friday that we are work from home through at least June 30th. Any large scale or regional meetings are off through at least July 31st.
  6. This is also a good page to follow. Fivethirtyeight is tracking 9 models and what they predict for the next 6 weeks (some only go out 4 weeks). it gets updated weekly. If you take whatever model ends up near the median that tends to be a pretty good guide. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid=rrpromo
  7. The issue in the US is that it is not really one big outbreak. Its lots of small outbreaks. As one area gets better another area pops up. That particular model (Gu) has probably been the best one in terms of matching the actual numbers to this point. The 178K on August 4th is actually way down from where it was a little over a week ago (when it was at 195K). if you look at the individual state models it has alot of the states that were not hit hard early (NY/NJ/CT/LA/MI etc) having increases in deaths in July and August as the US re-opens more. Some like GA even seeing increases in June.
  8. You can decide how much you agree with this but this is a graphical representation of how countries have done in terms of handling the pandemic. There is a description for each country represented. https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/ranking-countries-coronavirus-impact/
  9. One thing to remember for those who are following US numbers. I would expect numbers to be depressed starting tomorrow and lasting through Tuesday since it is a Holiday weekend. Then I would expect numbers to be inflated next Wed-Fri as states play catch-up.
  10. Interesting study by 4 economic reasearchers at UCLA who were looking to untangle the direct effects of stay at home orders on unemplayment claims. Overall they found that the stay at home orders were responsible for roughly 25% of unemployment claims. The rest of the claims were due to more indirect effects like lost consumer confidence, supply chain disruptions and self-imposed social distancing. As part of their analysis they looked for anticipation effects but didn't find any noticeable ones. The policy implication from this is that just 're-opening' whether in the US or elsewhere is unlikely to bring back most of the economic activity (ie. you would expect about a 25% rise), but that a full economic recovery is dependent upon dealing with the pandemic. Otherwise the other factors keep you from having a stronger recovery. https://voxeu.org/article/unemployment-effects-stay-home-orders
  11. Article on Sweden announcing that testing suggests 7.3% of people in Stockholm have antibodies. Not too far off of other places. No great higher level of coverage due to not officially shutting down. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html
  12. I'd agree with this. WHO definitely deserves criticism. So do the leaders and politicians of almost every Western country. But to say something like 'I don't listen at all' is an ignorant statement. in these situations everyone makes mistakes - we are all human. Do we learn from those mistakes is in some ways more important than making them in the first place. As my wife likes to say, "I wish the science was further along", I think everyone would agree with that and unfortunately science takes time, you can only speed it up so much. So hypotheses are going to be wrong. You figure that out and move on and as your data gets better and your understanding deepens you are more accurate. The ironic thing is as we go along we should listen more rather than less to the experts as their understanding deepens and so they are likely to be giving better recommendations later on than earlier. I have alot more faith right now in the knowledge of the experts than I did 2 months ago, beause they have learned alot they didn't know. They still aren't going to be perfect, but they are likely to be better in their predictions and recommendations.
  13. Just another instance of Pres Trump not being able to take any criticism no matter where it comes from. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/18/trump-goes-after-fox-news-host-in-twitter-flurry-267390
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