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RamblinRed last won the day on January 11

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  1. If the current pace can be maintained we could be at the trough that we saw between the previous surges in about 2 more weeks. That would be truly excellent news.
  2. This is a discouraging comment from Dr. Fauci this afternoon. Even if you've had coronavirus, there's a "very high rate" of being reinfected with the new variants if they become dominant, Dr. Anthony Fauci says. "If it becomes dominant, the experience of our colleagues in South Africa indicate that even if you've been infected with the original virus that there is a very high rate of reinfection to the point where previous infection does not seem to protect you against reinfection, at least with the South African variant that's the one that we know the most about when it comes to reinfection," Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious diseases, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Monday. Fauci emphasized the importance of getting vaccinated to prevent severe and potentially fatal illness that may require hospitalization. "We need to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as we possibly can, and when vaccine becomes available to individuals please take the vaccine, even though there is a diminished protection against the variants, there's enough protection to prevent you from getting serious disease, including hospitalization and deaths. So, vaccination is critical," Fauci said.
  3. Both the CDC and Youyang Gu models currently project US infections at around the 85M level.
  4. Good to see those hospital numbers coming down. Hopefully death numbers will start to come down soon. I know there is still alot of worry about the variants taking over and causing trends to go back up again. Have to wait and see on that. Disappointing news on the J&J vaccine this morning in terms of distribution. There will be fewer than 10M doses available once it is cleared by the FDA. They hope to ramp up to 20-30M by April. Johnson & Johnson would have fewer than 10 million vaccine doses available if the US Food and Drug Administration authorizes it for emergency use in the coming weeks, a federal health official tells CNN. The official said the number of doses available would be in the single-digit millions, but that number would ramp up to 20 or 30 million doses by April. Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot Covid-19 vaccine was shown to be 66% effective in preventing moderate and severe disease in a global phase 3 trial, but 85% effective against severe disease, the company announced Friday. The vaccine was 72% effective against moderate and severe disease in the US. I still worry about whether we are headed to a choke point where we have supply issues that prevent us from vaccinating people quickly.
  5. One other item that has me concerned. According to the latest numbers in the Wash Post 18.5M Americans have been vaccinated, including 3.2M that have received both doses. it also shows that 41.5M doses have been distributed. Yet we are seeing widespread reports of States running low on vaccines. Where are all those doses that have supposedly been delivered to the states? If the states are being accurate it suggests alot of doses may be getting lost. We know that especially the Pfizer vaccine has a limited lifespan. They can only be frozen for so long and then have to be used quickly after being defrosted. Based on the number of doses that should still be available the supply should be enough for multiple weeks, but that is not what the states are saying. That suggests that a large number of doses may simply go to waste.
  6. It's good to see the numbers decreasing, hopefully it continues but there are countervailing factors we have to keep an eye on. The first is of course the spread of B.1.1.7 and recent research suggesting it may not only be more contagious but also more deadly. I think this comment is probably the overriding concern in terms of the virus itself "It is, first of all, good news to see that curve bend down a little. We're still at a very high level of infections," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health."But I am very worried about whether we're going to be able to sustain this or not. If we move quickly on vaccinations ... then we can keep that curve heading down. But if the variants take hold first, that curve will turn back up. And things will get much worse," he said."So this is a race. Obviously, I hope we win." Univ of Michigan shut down its entire athletics program yesterday when testing found the B.1.1.7 variant. One of the other issues is we still have potentially serious logistical issues that could impact the ability to vaccinate people. We are seeing more reports of states saying they have increased their vaccinations but that they are also running out of doses and don't know when they are going to receive more. Then of course we have Pfizer doing the same thing in the US as it has in Europe crediting each vial as 6 doses rather than 5 regardless of whether the providers can actually pull 6 doses out of a vial. President Biden is planning on using the Defense Authorization Act to have more of the specialized syringes needed to pull that extra dose out, but that takes time. Meanwhile, J&J has been having manufacturing issues in producing its vaccine so it is unknown whether they will be able to keep to its schedule or not. According to one doctor it is likely to be middle or end of the summer before the average healthy, young American will be able to get the vaccine. "We're looking at probably middle of the summer, end of the summer before the average, healthy, young American has access to vaccination," Gounder told CNN Sunday. My biggest concern is that while vaccinations are ramping up right now, it appears there are issues that have to be resolved quickly or the vaccinations are going to rapidly decline as supply issues proliferate. And as Dr. Jha put it, we are basically in a race, can we vaccinate enough people before the new variant explodes. Right now we are assuming that vaccination rates will continue to accelerate but there are issues that need to be resolved or it is just as likely that vaccination rates will decelerate. The new IHME model has 568K deaths in the US by May 1st, even with the saving of 42K lives due to vaccines. The projections look much better once we get to April, but that doesn't mean mitigation measures will stop. I'm expecting those are likely to stay in effect through the summer and into the fall.
  7. The good news is we have clear declines off of the highs of a little over a week ago. The bad news is we are still a long ways until we get to a level where we get to a new normal. We are roughly 3-4 weeks from getting to the level we were at in April and August. Two other items to watch are whether the B.1.1.7 variant takes off in the US before vaccines can start to have a major impact. If that happens then you have the possibility for the numbers to rebound upward again. And finally, will more research show the South African variant is truly resistant to the vaccine - that obviously would be problematic.
  8. No Time to Die has been pushed to October. Morbius moves to Jan 2022 Peter Rabbit 2 to June, Cinderella to July , Ghostbusters to Nov Unchartered to Feb 2022 Will be interesting to see if BW holds its spot or if it eventually moves as well. Same for Raya. How long into 2021 will it be before Studios start feeling comfortable releasing films?
  9. Keep in mind that we found our last month that the delivery of those doses, at least in the US, is likely to come toward the end of the timeframe listed. After Pfizer delivers its first 100M doses it has said it second 100M doses won't go to the US until June/July as they have contracts with other countries for all their dose before then. in the US in order to not have a shortage of doses the J&J has to come online or we will hit a period in the spring when there will not be available doses. Everyone has to keep in mind that these companies have contracts with many countries and have to manage those contracts and when they have to provide doses to different countries. Don't assume that there is a steady stream of doses coming from companies to countries. It's more like dumps. They will give a large bunch of doses to one set of countries, and then another dump to a different set of countries in the next month.
  10. First off, thanks for all the kind words. On a better note, it is nice to see that hospitalizations continue to trend downward in the US. We have a long ways to go but hopefully we are past peak at this point. Second, this is a good article on timelines for vaccinating people in the US. Bottom line is still a good scenario would be fall of 2021 having enough people vaccinated to start to get herd immunity. Unlikely to occur before that and if there are issues it could slip to end of 2021 or 2022. In the past seven days, about 914,000 doses have been administered daily. If vaccination continues at this same rate, every adult in the US could be fully vaccinated by summer 2022, according to a CNN analysis. If vaccination picks up to 1 million shots per day, in line with Biden's promise, that timeline could bump up to spring 2022. To fully vaccinate all adults in the US by the end of the year, the pace would have to increase to about 1.3 million doses administered per day. While vaccinating the full population is ideal, it's likely not necessary to start a return to normalcy. Herd immunity -- when a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease and spread from person to person is unlikely -- would be expected to happen sooner. Assuming three-quarters of US adults must be fully vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, the US could reach this threshold by February 2022 if vaccination continues at the same rate as the past seven days -- about 914,000 doses administered daily, according to a CNN analysis. If vaccination picks up to 1 million shots per day, herd immunity in the US could be reached by the end of 2021. At a Harvard Business Review event on Tuesday, Fauci said the effects of herd immunity may begin by fall. "If we do that efficiently -- from April, May, June, July, August -- by the time we get to the beginning of the fall, we should have that degree of protection that I think can get us back to some form of normality," he said. However, even if the United States reaches some level of herd immunity, the situation may be different in other parts of the world. Last week, the World Health Organization's chief scientist, Soumya Swaminathan, warned that global herd immunity should not be expected this year.
  11. FWIW, here are the latest US vaccination numbers from the Washington Post 14.3 million vaccinatedThe number of people who have received the first dose of the vaccines, covering 12.5% of the prioritized population and 4.3% of the total population. This includes more than 2.2 million people who have been fully vaccinated. 36 million doses have been distributed.
  12. New South African variant may not be covered by vaccines. I want to stress these are not definitive, but more research will need to be done. New coronavirus variant could be problematic for vaccines, a second study in two days suggests From CNN's Senior Medical Correspondent Elizabeth Cohen As researchers around the world race to see if new coronavirus variants will pose a problem for the vaccines, a second study in two days says a variant from South Africa could possibly do just that. The variant was first spotted in South Africa in October and has now been found in more than a dozen countries. In both studies, the work was done in the lab and not in people, so more research is needed to gauge the true threat of the new variant. In the most recent study, which was small, researchers took antibodies from six people who had been hospitalized with Covid-19 before the new variant was discovered. They found, to varying degrees, that antibodies for all six of the survivors were unable to fully fight off the virus. It's unclear whether this means someone would be vulnerable to the new variant if they'd already had Covid-19, or what this might mean for people who've been vaccinated. The findings of this study were very similar to those of a study released Tuesday by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa. "When you see two groups independently arriving at same basic answer, that's good -- there's more consonance that they are correct," said Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. A third study also released Tuesday was more optimistic. It showed that mutations in the new variant allowed them to evade some of the immunity induced by vaccination, but it was far from a complete escape. That study looked at three mutations in the variant. The South African studies looked at eight. None of the studies was peer reviewed or published in medical journals. The most recent study was posted on the website for KRISP, the Kwazulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform.
  13. This doesn't surprise me if true. We have to keep in mind that these vaccines were rushed out much more quickly than any previous vaccine and the amount of time spent testing and collecting data is far less than any previous vaccine. Given smaller test numbers and shorter testing windows there is likely to be a greater variation in effectiveness as they are used in mass populations vs small studies. These early results included just a couple months data, so the efficacy of 90%+ is only known for 2 months, whethrer it really remains that over a longer time period or as they are instituted on large numbers of people is not really a known quantity yet. Brazil announced in the last week or two that the Chinese vaccine has been much less effective than early trials suggested, with an efficacy rate of just over 50%. Also, just wanted to add on a personal note that my best friend's father passed away last night with complications from COVID. He went into ICU on Christmas Day and never recovered. Have known for a couple of weeks that this was the likely outcome but it still sucks.
  14. Shouldn't be surprised by this but it is truly sad and once again just shows the complete dereliction of duty. Newly sworn in President Joe Biden and his advisers are inheriting no coronavirus vaccine distribution plan to speak of from the Trump administration, sources tell CNN, posing a significant challenge for the new White House. But in the immediate hours following Biden being sworn into office on Wednesday, sources with direct knowledge of the new administration's Covid-related work told CNN one of the biggest shocks that the Biden team had to digest during the transition period was what they saw as a complete lack of a vaccine distribution strategy under former President Donald Trump, even weeks after multiple vaccines were approved for use in the United States. "There is nothing for us to rework. We are going to have to build everything from scratch," one source said. Another source described the moment that it became clear the Biden administration would have to essentially start from "square one" because there simply was no plan as: "Wow, just further affirmation of complete incompetence."
  15. My wife is still one who even though she reads all of the stuff on COVID, doesn't trust that you can't get it from touch (which is true, you can get it from touch, just more likely to get it through the air) so she won't even think of going anywhere where she doesn't see significant ongoing cleaning. She is also concerned that part of the reason for the UK variant may be that it is more able to translate through touch than previous variants. (Obviously we have no study of that yet either way). But, I doubt i will be able to get my wife to go to a move theater for at least another 12-18 months, frankly I don't think I will get her to go anywhere inside with groups of people (restuarants, arenas, stores) for at least 12-18 months. I'm the only one in the family currently who will go to a store and almost all our shopping that is not done completely online is curbside pickup.
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