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RamblinRed

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About RamblinRed

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  1. TS4 stays above $1M, passes TS3 and almost catches Spidey (just 2K behind on Thur). FFH - 1,025,389 TS4 - 1,023,316
  2. This could turn into an interesting weekend to follow simply because multiple movies could end up very close in gross. Given TLK and H&S reportedly did 4.2 and 4.0 on Thur and the preview numbers for Dora and SS, we could have 4 films in the low 20's for the weekend (probably won't happen but not out of the realm of possibility). The numbers for some of the holdovers this weekend could be pretty bad. The movies outside the top 5 are almost all taking 50%+ theater losses and FFH and TS4 are both taking over 20%.
  3. Will be interesting to see if TS4 managed to stay above $1M on Thursday. Going to be very close. 15% drop would be 1.003
  4. Yep. Day earlier that I was expecting, but great holds for tLK and TS4 given how large their Tues bumps were.
  5. TLK and TS4 did manage 50%+ jumps. H&S was on the higher end at 45%. Definitely correct in that the % were sort of all over the place. TLK passes Shreck 2 for 19th place all time and will pass tDKR on Wed or Thur. TS4 will pass TS3 on Friday and JW:FK over the weekend. FFH passed DP for #48 on the all-time chart.
  6. Some notes on movies. TLK passed ET on Monday and moved into the Top 20 all-time DOM. TS4 likely passed WW on Tuesday. FFH should have passed DP2 on Tuesday. from the earlier conversation I see TS4 as a huge win. Until the opening pre-sales day figures came out there was alot of talk that it wasn't necessary, that it wasn't going to do huge business. Expectations ramped up too high after day 1 pre-sales and opening weekend was lower than even Disney expected. But it is going to have a final DOM number pretty close to the more heightened expectations and certainly higher than what was expected before pre-sales day 1. Will end up as the 3rd or 4th highest grossing animated picture of all-time DOM (depending upon if it can get past Shreck 2). I would expect Disney and Pixar are very pleased with its performance. It's WW performance will be slightly lower but still really impressive. You have three animated movies - DM3, FD, and Zootopia that are within 11M of each other in WW gross, all just a little over $1B. TS4 should end up very close to them.
  7. One more note on FFH. Neither it or HC were listed as content for Disney+ when the presentation was made, likely due to Sony owning the rights to Spidey movies. So I would expect it to stream on STARZ since that is who Sony has a deal with for streaming its movies. There is some thought that eventually Disney will work out a deal with Sony to put Spider-Man movies on Disney+. Sony's current streaming deal with STARZ expires in 2021.
  8. The Disney numbers are really about 2 areas - getting ready to launch Disney+ and absorbing Fox. It's operating loss in the Direct to Consumer division increased from $168M to $553M due to the consolidation of Hulu, and expenses with ESPN+ and Disney+ ramp ups. They are estimating this will increase to $900M loss in quarter 4. So they are spending a ton of money getting their streaming service ready. It also mentioned the costs of integrating Fox into Disney - saying that diluted shares by 60 cents per share. That is more than they missed expectations by. But almost everything else was up. the Studio Entertainment division was up 33% in revenue from last year. Media Networks unit was up 21% in revenue from a year ago. Parks were up 7% in revenue from a year ago despite lower attendance at US parks that was offest by foreign parks. Also, in regards to films. They have been keeping Fox movies separate from Disney movies so the $8B WW figure is just Disney films and excludes Fox movies. It would include revenue from everything that they have released this year as well as any additional revenue from movies released in 2018 that were still playing in 2019. so Mary Poppins and Ralph Breaks the Internet earnings from Jan 1 forward would be included. Revenue in total was up 33% from a year ago, but profits were down 51% from a year ago. Overall it made 20.25B in revenue in the third quarter and a profit of 1.44B. So basically they made alot more revenue but that was outstripped by expenses as they had higher costs integrating Fox and ramping up streaming, and still made a huge profit (though down from the 2.9B that they made in 3rd quarter of 2018). They also announced they were going to have a streaming bundle available of Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu (with commercials) for $12.99. I could see that being pretty popular. Disney+ by itself will be $6.99. Keep in mind that Netflix had a net loss in US subscribers last quarter for the first time ever (they lost 125K subscribers when they were expected to gain 350K). Finally on FFH. While its having a great run it is starting to fall off the pace of making it to 400M. HC's run from here on out would give it 399.4M, but it that has been slowly declining as it has run behind HC in dailies in 15 of the last 18 days. A 390M finish is more likely than a 400M finish at this point.
  9. So Yesterday passes a 4X multiple on Monday. One of the surprise winners of the summer. One of only 3 wide release movies this year so far to get to that mark. H&S is about $1M below MI:F for its first Monday. TS4 will pass TS3 on Friday. I'm assuming since Monday was a Holiday in Cananda that Tuesday jumps will be smaller than normal today.
  10. Excellent hold for FFH, though 325K below HC.
  11. What's sort of crazy is that Disney is likely to have 6 movies that gross over $400M this year. All the other studios combined have had 7 movies gross over $400M DOM in the last 10 yrs. JW, JW:FK, WW, Jumangi, HG:CF, HG, tDKR. If you go back to 11 yrs ago you add Avatar. Of course Disney overloaded this year to boost their content for Disney+, which was also the main reason they bought Fox - to get its TV and Movie library. This has been a poor year in terms of having big, but not massive success movies (it's why 2019 trails 2018). After Aladdin the next highest grossing movie is Us at 175M. Last year there were 12 movies that grosses between 175 and 350M and Crazy Rich Asians was 174.8.
  12. I agree. it will pass 68M on Monday to have a 4X multiple off its opening weekend. Probably headed to about a 4.3X. Also, as mentioned good hold for OUaTiH, i thought it would drop more. it definitely looks like it should do at least 120M.
  13. keep in mind as we get into August the Sunday drops get harsher. Last year the avg Sunday drop on this weekend was 26.7%. New openers Christopher Robin and The Spy who dumped me had 25.6 and 27.1 drops. EQ2 was in its third weekend and dropped 26.9. The previous weekend for 2018 the avg Sunday drop was 22.3%, so the drop for this current weekend last year was on avg 4.4% higher than the last weekend in July. So I would expect a 20% drop on the low end (that would be 3.4% worse than OUaTiH drop last Sunday) to as much as 25%. A conservative number would be something like 23.72, 20.6, 15.45(-25%) = 59.77. kids are starting to head back to school in August so that impacts the ability to go to Sunday night movies. The 2 large school districts closest to me both started school on Thursday. Most of the other school systems in Atlanta start school this week.
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