tokila
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Posts posted by tokila
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5 hours ago, Ozymandias said:
So Spectre has better reviews?
Spectre is underrated btw.
agree. I found it much more enjoyable than Skyfall (while I would not say it is a better movie, it was more entertaining for me).
OT- I am gonna see this regardless...
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25 minutes ago, Nova said:
When it comes to Super Hero and comic book movies critics and the general audience are typically on the same page. Maybe slightly differing opinions but it's never been polar opposites. When was the last time a comic book movie had 40% on RT and a 46 meta score and was loved by the general audience? And it's not just critics...even fan boys have been mixed with the film and they're supposed to love it. Let's stop kidding ourselves when the writing is on the wall.
agree with this. Comedies like Daddy's Home are where audiences can trend much differently than critics. I see it getting mid 60s from audience or so.
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JW made about 28mil more after its same point in its run. If TFA equaled JW from here on on we would be looking at around 925mil.
However, TFA is operating a higher trajectory than JW was at the same point. TFA last week only made about 700k less total on weekdays (despite it being winter versus summer) and made 4 million more on the weekend.
Next week JW only made 3.9 mil and 1.9mil the week after that(two of the biggest drops it had in its entire run). TFA will likely double JW next weekend and could triple it president's day weekend.
Basically at this point in its run JW entered the crawl phase where as TFA is still very healthy.
Also, I see almost 0 chance TFA does not see a re-expansion in March before BvS. An IMAX re-expansion in march could make a ton on cash. At the point alot of SW fans would be in the mood again to catch it one last time on a premium screen.
To me the baseline is now 935mil. I don't see how it does not make 10 mil more than JW after this point (it should gain at least 8 on JW the next 2 weekends). If we see nice soft drops after Presidents day it could crawl to 950.
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4 hours ago, setna said:
JW made another 28 million, not 31 and with a re-expansion. If TFA will make another 30 million would be 925, i see very very difficult going over 935 and almost impossible 950, but i really would love it.
TFA is also operating a higher trajectory than JW was at the same point. TFA last week only made about 500k less total on weekdays (despite it being winter versus summer) and made 4 million more on the weekend.
Next week JW only made 3.9 mil and 1.9mil the week after that. TFA will likely double JW next weekend and could triple it president's day weekend.
Basically at this point in its run JW entered the crawl phase where as TFA is still very healthy.
Also, I see almost 0 chance TFA does not see a re-expansion in March before BvS. An IMAX re-expansion in march could make a ton on cash. At the point alot of SW fans would be in the mood again to catch it one last time on a premium screen.
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lol wow at TFA. Great weekend despite losing 800 theaters.
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so I take it we wont be seeing anymore boat movies green lit for a good while.
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Jack Black is not as popular now as he used to be, back when KFP1 came out it was actually marketed focusing on the fact he was in it. Now they did not mention it much and he was only chosen to have the same voice.
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3 hours ago, spizzer said:
There's no feasible way to do a matinee split, we've never been provided the numbers outside of a few of the record-level opening days.
ya thats what I figured. I believe based on the daily trends TFA favors matinees compared to most movies. Thus the extremely good holds on NY Eve and CMas eve (2 days where evenings are weak).
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3 hours ago, spizzer said:
I'm estimating % of IMAX tickets at 8.7% so I'm not sure what you mean?
ok, that is what I was wondering if what you are doing? What is your matinee split?
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I dont understand some of the way they decided to show movies, but if TFA is making more money per day than Bad Grandpa and 13 Hours why did its theater count drop below them? I would assume the theaters that dropped TFA were not doing much business anyways but stilll makes no sense.
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32 minutes ago, rustyspoons89 said:
SW has beenbasically matching TA this week. I'm guessing 8.5-9 M for the weekend.
err..... TA was in the summer(so it had better weekdays proportionally). So yes TA had a 8.9 weekend based of nearly identical weekdays. However this is January so the weekend bump with be higher.
Simple example, TA had done 11.5 mil the weekend prior while TFA did 14 with 1/4 of the US snowed in.
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17 hours ago, spizzer said:
We got a 120M domestic IMAX figure yesterday or Monday, so 13.6%. 3D was running pretty high even past the 3rd weekend (and then we got a weird report that suggested 3D share had jumped significantly since OW, I'm ignoring that), so given the relatively low share of gross done in the last couple of weeks, we're looking at 24-25% from RealD and 6-7% from PLF.
That puts the tickets sold at 85-86M. Every dollar from here on out basically increases the confidence that TPM attendance has been crossed. Should cross 90M tickets once it hits the 915-920M range.
I think one of your basic premises may be faulty. At least what I interpret your premise to be.
If IMAX is worth 13% of total gross, its % of total tickets would be much lower than that. TFA is also playing like a family film and even during the holidays it was disproportionately better during matinees. That is why we had much better than expected holds on both CMAS eve and NY eve (2 days where evening showing are stunted and matinees are where the business is at). So while TFA has hadexceptional business from IMAX, it still has around 750 million non IMAX.
I am not saying I think you are way off, but you could be low balling TFA's ticket sales by a few million. I think your estimate of 10.50 or so dollars a ticket is a bit high. You could be right, I just think you are weighting IMAX and evenings too heavily into the equation.
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1 minute ago, LinksterAC said:
Yes. It's essentially stayed flat on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday so far.
so a 5.5 to 6 mil midweek, 9-11 mil weekend. That puts us at 895mil Sunday. Should get over 900 mil Superbowl weekend (probably that Friday, Sat at worst).
I am thinking 915mil is pretty safe, 925 is doable at this point. Cant see it going much higher than 925 though without late expansion in march or something (before BvS).
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24 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:
Better than I expected for TFA. It's shaping up for a $10M+ weekend and a very strong hold. It looks like that storm had a pretty significant effect on last weekend.
1.3 mil monday makes me think we can stay above 1 mil this week. TFA has been holding strong wed-thur thus far so I think Wed and Thursday may be like 1.05-1.1.
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59 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:
That's a good Saturday for TFA, I think! I was hoping for $6M or so, maybe $6.1M, given the storm and all of that. $7.1M is a great day.
ya TFA looking at a sub 50% drop despite weather, like to think it would have been 40 or so with good weather.
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1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:
Those are bad drops.
1/4 of the country is literally trapped in their houses.
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I am calling TFA over RA2 this weekend. TFA has been doing well the past 2 weeks on weekends compared to weekdays (playing more like a family film). I see 15.5 to 16.5 mil for SW. RA 2 with a >50% drop. Thinking 14.5-15.5.
Not to mention TFA has been over RA 2 in the dailies. I dont see RA2 playing more like a family film than TFA.
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2 hours ago, Joel M said:
You can't apply American Hustle or Argo or King's Speech legs to this though just because of oscar buzz. Those movies opened at half of what the Revenant opened so the awards buzz had a bigger impact.
I am not. I am assume softer than typical weekly drops with a bump around the time of oscars. We shall see. I might go under, this weekend will tell us if it is going to hold strong from here on out or if the previous holds were due to Golden Globes or Oscar noms.
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36 minutes ago, Joel M said:
It will make it over Django even with mediocre drops from here on, but 200M aren't that easy. It needs a 5x multiplier to do 200M, even with oscar buzz that kind of legs is hard for a 40m opener.
it already has a 2.5 multi and is seeing small drops. I think 200 is fairly safe for it it. Expect a decent bump in Feb when it wins BP and Leo gets BAILR.
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11 minutes ago, Baumer said:
I think there is a good chance it hits 200M.
not seeing how it doesn't. Its going to play well through Oscar season. I think it should be safely over 200mil.
TFA is the 1st movie to make 200mil in 2016 however (649mil in 15m so far about 213 mil in 16).
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1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:
What do you mean by this? Isn't that what I said.
no what I am saying is that Avatar 2 is moving regardless. They may say they needed one more year but only you, and a few others on here will buy that.
I bet sometime this summer they lock in that DEC 2018 released date stating that is when they projected it will be complete and up to the standards they expect.
In other words we wanted this out in DEC 17, but Star Wars is there and we did not invest all this money into the project only for SW to suck all the wind out of its sails. But they would never come out and say that.
So yes you will be correct, only if you really believe what they put out.
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2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
There is only one way that Avatar's date will change and that's if it's not ready.
If you believe otherwise you're ignorant of James Cameron, are you from reddit by any chance?Or. Because EP 8 is in DEC 17 now Avatar 2 will no longer be ready. Jimmy has not waited 8 years to finally get this out to launch it against freaken SW. 2017 would be 8 years, whats one more.
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TFA takes Avatar's DOM record
TFA's sequel takes Avatar's sequel release date.
No wonder Jimmy did not make a funny poster for TFA passing Avatar.
I think we will see a similar drop from TFA to EP as we say from TA to UoA. Except TA to AoU was 620mil to 450, so TFA to EP8 might look more like 900mil to 700 something.....
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today is the day we pass Avatar+100mil. For reference Avatar has made more money that Avatar by > than Revenent's gross to date.
Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby
in Box Office Derby
Posted
Suicide Squad: $105 million (think it looks terrible)
Jason Bourne: $27 million
Star Trek Beyond: $12.5 million
Bad Moms: $12 million
The Secret Life of Pets: $10 million
Nine Lives: $6.5 million
Lights Out: $6 million
Nerve: $5.5 million
Ice Age - Collision Course: $4.1 million
Ghostbusters: $4 million