tokila

Suicide Squad: $105 million (think it looks terrible) Jason Bourne: $27 million Star Trek Beyond: $12.5 million Bad Moms: $12 million The Secret Life of Pets: $10 million Nine Lives: $6.5 million Lights Out: $6 million Nerve: $5.5 million Ice Age - Collision Course: $4.1 million Ghostbusters: $4 million

agree. I found it much more enjoyable than Skyfall (while I would not say it is a better movie, it was more entertaining for me). OT- I am gonna see this regardless...

agree with this. Comedies like Daddy's Home are where audiences can trend much differently than critics. I see it getting mid 60s from audience or so.

JW made about 28mil more after its same point in its run. If TFA equaled JW from here on on we would be looking at around 925mil. However, TFA is operating a higher trajectory than JW was at the same point. TFA last week only made about 700k less total on weekdays (despite it being winter versus summer) and made 4 million more on the weekend. Next week JW only made 3.9 mil and 1.9mil the week after that(two of the biggest drops it had in its entire run). TFA will likely double JW next weekend and could triple it president's day weekend. Basically at this point in its run JW entered the crawl phase where as TFA is still very healthy. Also, I see almost 0 chance TFA does not see a re-expansion in March before BvS. An IMAX re-expansion in march could make a ton on cash. At the point alot of SW fans would be in the mood again to catch it one last time on a premium screen. To me the baseline is now 935mil. I don't see how it does not make 10 mil more than JW after this point (it should gain at least 8 on JW the next 2 weekends). If we see nice soft drops after Presidents day it could crawl to 950.

TFA is also operating a higher trajectory than JW was at the same point. TFA last week only made about 500k less total on weekdays (despite it being winter versus summer) and made 4 million more on the weekend. Next week JW only made 3.9 mil and 1.9mil the week after that. TFA will likely double JW next weekend and could triple it president's day weekend. Basically at this point in its run JW entered the crawl phase where as TFA is still very healthy. Also, I see almost 0 chance TFA does not see a re-expansion in March before BvS. An IMAX re-expansion in march could make a ton on cash. At the point alot of SW fans would be in the mood again to catch it one last time on a premium screen.

lol wow at TFA. Great weekend despite losing 800 theaters.

so I take it we wont be seeing anymore boat movies green lit for a good while.

Jack Black is not as popular now as he used to be, back when KFP1 came out it was actually marketed focusing on the fact he was in it. Now they did not mention it much and he was only chosen to have the same voice.

ya thats what I figured. I believe based on the daily trends TFA favors matinees compared to most movies. Thus the extremely good holds on NY Eve and CMas eve (2 days where evenings are weak).

ok, that is what I was wondering if what you are doing? What is your matinee split?

I dont understand some of the way they decided to show movies, but if TFA is making more money per day than Bad Grandpa and 13 Hours why did its theater count drop below them? I would assume the theaters that dropped TFA were not doing much business anyways but stilll makes no sense.

err..... TA was in the summer(so it had better weekdays proportionally). So yes TA had a 8.9 weekend based of nearly identical weekdays. However this is January so the weekend bump with be higher. Simple example, TA had done 11.5 mil the weekend prior while TFA did 14 with 1/4 of the US snowed in.

I think one of your basic premises may be faulty. At least what I interpret your premise to be. If IMAX is worth 13% of total gross, its % of total tickets would be much lower than that. TFA is also playing like a family film and even during the holidays it was disproportionately better during matinees. That is why we had much better than expected holds on both CMAS eve and NY eve (2 days where evening showing are stunted and matinees are where the business is at). So while TFA has hadexceptional business from IMAX, it still has around 750 million non IMAX. I am not saying I think you are way off, but you could be low balling TFA's ticket sales by a few million. I think your estimate of 10.50 or so dollars a ticket is a bit high. You could be right, I just think you are weighting IMAX and evenings too heavily into the equation.

so a 5.5 to 6 mil midweek, 9-11 mil weekend. That puts us at 895mil Sunday. Should get over 900 mil Superbowl weekend (probably that Friday, Sat at worst). I am thinking 915mil is pretty safe, 925 is doable at this point. Cant see it going much higher than 925 though without late expansion in march or something (before BvS).

1.3 mil monday makes me think we can stay above 1 mil this week. TFA has been holding strong wed-thur thus far so I think Wed and Thursday may be like 1.05-1.1.

ya TFA looking at a sub 50% drop despite weather, like to think it would have been 40 or so with good weather.

1/4 of the country is literally trapped in their houses.

I am calling TFA over RA2 this weekend. TFA has been doing well the past 2 weeks on weekends compared to weekdays (playing more like a family film). I see 15.5 to 16.5 mil for SW. RA 2 with a >50% drop. Thinking 14.5-15.5. Not to mention TFA has been over RA 2 in the dailies. I dont see RA2 playing more like a family film than TFA.

I am not. I am assume softer than typical weekly drops with a bump around the time of oscars. We shall see. I might go under, this weekend will tell us if it is going to hold strong from here on out or if the previous holds were due to Golden Globes or Oscar noms.

it already has a 2.5 multi and is seeing small drops. I think 200 is fairly safe for it it. Expect a decent bump in Feb when it wins BP and Leo gets BAILR.

not seeing how it doesn't. Its going to play well through Oscar season. I think it should be safely over 200mil. TFA is the 1st movie to make 200mil in 2016 however (649mil in 15m so far about 213 mil in 16).

no what I am saying is that Avatar 2 is moving regardless. They may say they needed one more year but only you, and a few others on here will buy that. I bet sometime this summer they lock in that DEC 2018 released date stating that is when they projected it will be complete and up to the standards they expect. In other words we wanted this out in DEC 17, but Star Wars is there and we did not invest all this money into the project only for SW to suck all the wind out of its sails. But they would never come out and say that. So yes you will be correct, only if you really believe what they put out.

Or. Because EP 8 is in DEC 17 now Avatar 2 will no longer be ready. Jimmy has not waited 8 years to finally get this out to launch it against freaken SW. 2017 would be 8 years, whats one more.

TFA takes Avatar's DOM record TFA's sequel takes Avatar's sequel release date. No wonder Jimmy did not make a funny poster for TFA passing Avatar. I think we will see a similar drop from TFA to EP as we say from TA to UoA. Except TA to AoU was 620mil to 450, so TFA to EP8 might look more like 900mil to 700 something.....

today is the day we pass Avatar+100mil. For reference Avatar has made more money that Avatar by > than Revenent's gross to date.