titanic2187
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Posts posted by titanic2187
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I honestly start thinking if Leo will get crowded out especially in a competitive year. He doesn't have as much as passionate support like other contenders. As for winner, I think Murphy has some advantage here since he play a dramatic role as compared to a more comedy tone for Paul.
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Are they trying to Andrea riseborough Origin into best picture lineup?
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Oppenheimer win eight CC but unlike the past three winners which took both directing and screenplay categories, Oppenheimer came with only director win.
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For platform releases, American fiction doing less than what I hoped. 1.9m or 3000 PTA is weaker than holdovers first wide expansion weekend. On the other hand, Poor things PTA is really encouraging. Now we know the movie is special enough to secure an impression among audience.
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If wouldn’t for SK still on its way, I will start my doubt if this can pass 600m. Anyway, the holds post-holiday hasn’t been good. Probably the holiday feel good tone means there is no more hook for people to seek out the movie after the holiday.
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Unexpectedly the movie continue to match avatar’s hold in post holiday, and way better than NWH at the same point of run. If the hold continue to match avatar 2, with some extra help from Japan, 440m is within reach the final total range.
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Suzume is pretty much within my expectation but Heron completely overperforms. The annual Ghibli film festival organized by GKIDS clearly is a successful gospel that contribute to this overperformance, especially Heron also perform way better than other Western countries.
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40 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:
-48% from last Friday after losing 1/3 of its theaters. with the holiday should be closer to -40% drop for the weekend?
If IC followed Priscilla, this should end in the range of 32-34m. The consolation prize for getting ignored by award season. On the other hand, ZOI holds very good in its limited run. A24 should have no problem getting two best picture nominees slot for the first time.
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3 hours ago, Krissykins said:
Poor Things is awesome. Hope it keeps rolling. Looks like an easy #1 here on opening Friday.
Surprisingly Searchlight didn't expand the location further this week after the GG win. In fact they drop another 170 locations when the hold is so good.
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officially pass 40m. It is now holding like an art house movie than a anime or animation.
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Boy and the Heron getting in PGA animation is a big news. This is the first time foreign language animation got in PGA. The first for Miyazaki and Ghibli (They snubbed SA back then), and the second GKIDS nomination in PGA!
If even PGA can be this open to a non-english foreign animation from GKIDS, they snubbed 11 out of 12 GKIDS eventual Oscar nominees after all, I would expect Oscar to be even receptive. Heron really stand a chance to beat ATSV now.
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Pretty much the expected line-up for Oscar. I didn't expect them to take Zone of interest and Anatomy of Fall though because PGA tends not to recognize foreign film.
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39 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:
Looks like it'll have one of the (maybe even the) lowest day-to-day drop of everything despite Mean Girls previews being direct competition. Seems promising for the weekend.
Pretty nasty weather out here in the Chicagoland area, hope that plus the frigid weather doesn't hurt overall grosses too much.
Iron Claw is holding up as good as ABY this week, managed to keep mid-week decrease at sub-50%. I guess Allen White underwear campaign helps.
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11 hours ago, cannastop said:
Joe Hisaishi's momentum has been growing in the past few weeks. And compared to Miyazaki, Hisaishi is more open for campaign and he did attend some interviews here and there. His first nomination isn't a sure thing and far from safe at the moment but I believe his concert at Seattle during voting period could boost some visibility. If animation branch members are allowed to nominate a composer, Hisaishi is safe but unfortunately this isn't how Oscar works.
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Suzume pushes out elemental!
Suzume and Heron are now the most nominated anime at Annie award with seven.
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Both suzume and heron made Annie nomination record at 7, beating Belle which got five nominations. They are the most nominated anime now at Annie.
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Denying the use of platform release is showing that just how patience is depleting from our world quicker than iceberg.
I bet if every studio start throwing movie randomly 3000 theaters and then quickly drop them afterward, people will again start complaining they couldn’t come to aware of a movie fast enough before it loses its screentime.
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So surprised that Nimoma got this many nomination. Netflix is really turning itself into an animation powerhouse streamer. I believe this is the first time both Pixar and Disney are shut out from the best feature category. Suzume also overperforms. Now the fifth slot at the Oscar is really up for grab in between Nimona.
Elemental really take a hit here. Even finding dory, cars 3 or monster university and good dinosaur make it to best feature list.
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If there is one small movie that can challenge Oppenheimer, that is not holdover or poor things. It is American fiction. Holdover and Poor things is mostly socially irrelevant and unimportant to be a best picture winner. The past 10-20 years if there is a trend, the movie that touches real world issues tend to win like class conflict (Parasite), racial relation(Green Book), nomadland (capitalism), spotlight(press integrity), 12 a slave and moolight(black’s plight).
American fiction seem to have checked off this box and audience is responding very well with 97%. Could be A+ cinemascore if they poll it.
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8 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
It's chugging along fine but its PTA for so few theaters isn't impressive. It was only when it played in 8 theaters but dropped big with the first expansion and kept dropping.
But its PTA at this stage is quite comparable to the favourite, a pre-pandemic award season player. Although I doubt poor things is more audience friendly than that movie. At this stage I would say Poor things is the first movie that have a pre-pandemic like platform release run since Licorice pizza. I was hoping the holdover to replicate a similar run like GB, only smaller but obviously the streaming ruin the party.
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23 minutes ago, Maggie said:
I guess Margot Robbie is the new Oscar darling along with Bradley Cooper. I can't believe she's gonna get nominated for an Oscar for Barbie!
It is quite common to see someone got in both GG and SAG but missed out Oscar. I still wouldn’t put Morgot Robbie unless she got in BAFTA in my prediction because she is way too pretty in that movie to be a nominee. Sandra may take her spot at the Oscar. Plus, she is also a producer of the movie.
MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2
in Numbers and Data
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This is when you are up for the run in best Picture race. I don't think there is any slot left for Heron.
3k from 625 is just normal good not something worth screaming. Fabelmans, Bottoms and Holdovers got better PTA at this point of run. Unless the movie start leg out like PT, AF would still pretty much stuck in a 10-20m range like most of the platform release. AF got 90% posttrak, one point lower than Holdovers. I would expect their run to be similar from here.