titanic2187
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Posts posted by titanic2187
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9 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
My prediction is $12,000,000 previews and a $84,928,476 weekend
(We need specifically something close to 12*7)
My disappointment bar is any numbers below JW4 after all the rising buzz.
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Aren’t we already in early 2024?
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“Wonka” (Warner Bros.) achieved something that the much bigger “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” didn’t. With the #1 spot again this week on VOD top 10s of iTunes, Google Play, and Vudu, it becomes the first film to do this since “Avatar: The Way of Water” last year.
It didn’t come without a challenge. “The Iron Claw” (A24), like the Roald Dahl-inspired musical priced at $19.99 (though to buy; “Wonka” remains rental only) when released on Tuesday, held the #1 spot at iTunes for five days before dropping down. It’s #2 as well at Vudu, with the always lagging Google Play showing it at #5.
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The purpose is to promote Dune 2 but no harm for Tim to do Wonka promotion too at the same time since that movie still at number 1 here.
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Mexico City, Paris, London and Abu Dhabi. Dune 2 continues its tour around the globe and now they are in South korea. Next stop is New york, and Montreal.
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2 hours ago, harrisonisdead said:
Animation director Takeshi Honda was at the Annie Awards to accept his award for character animation on The Boy and the Heron, and he also accepted the storyboarding award on Hayao Miyazaki's behalf. Toshio Suzuki wasn't able to attend the Golden Globes, but he put out a thank you message afterwards. I have to imagine their absence at the BAFTAs just came down to timing and who was actually invited. As for the San Sebastian Film Festival, a video recorded acceptance speech was only possible because it was a non-competitive career award, usually showing up via video is not an option for awards ceremonies. At the San Sebastian ceremony, the festival director asked the audience not to record Miyazaki's message, due to Miyazaki's wish for privacy. He also said that they'd tried to give Miyazaki the award several times prior, and this was the first time he accepted.
The company as a whole certainly doesn't avoid the Oscars: Toshio Suzuki showed up for The Wind Rises even if Miyazaki didn't (a few months later, Miyazaki was present to accept his honorary Oscar at the Governor Awards). Suzuki also attended for The Red Turtle, along with director Michael Dudok de Wit. Isao Takahata and producer Yoshiaki Nishimura showed up for The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. Nishimura also showed up for When Marnie Was There, along with director Hiromasa Yonebayashi and production designer Yohei Taneda. Suzuki and Miyazaki had fully planned to be present at the 2003 Oscars, but the invasion of Iraq happened just a few days before the ceremony, so they decided not to go at the last minute. I wouldn't say that says much about the company's chances of being represented at this year's Oscars.
But at the circumstances such as now where race was this close, being present for campaigning is inevitable factor to consider. And GKIDS is great during pre-nomination stage, they are a bit lacking when it come to actually wining the prize. Heron is their biggest grosser of all time but GKIDS weren't very vocal about this success like how A24 utilised record high box office figures for EEAAO's Oscar campaign.
I would attribute Heron underperformance at Annie to Suzume, which also were in the race, split the support from anime-friendly voters. But that is just theory, the race is way closer than many expected with Netflix also escalating their campaign for Nimona at the same time.
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25 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:
I remember hearing years ago that Neon hadn't spent a ton on Parasite. It got to 2,000 theaters at its widest release (the weekend after the Oscars). Many modern awards campaigns are reportedly far more expensive than $20 million, which shows how much genuine enthusiasm and organic hype can do for a film.
20m sound like a norm but for a newly established company distributing a Korean movie, that is actually hell a lot of money to put their faith in. Don't forget that Korean film never got nominated for best foreign language before Parasite, let alone in best picture category and zero Korean film has made more than 10m at NA. Put things in perspective, that is mega-sized gamble they up against in term of statistical odd.
3 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:The founder of Neon just did an interview where they mentioned the film's P&A + Oscar spend combined to $20M
Did they disclose just how much the movie made worldwide?
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You can see how a 100m opening impacting the holdovers just looking at this weekend. Only two movies (Avatar 2 and PIB2) has single digit drop last year but this year we have four. Two of them (Wonka and Migration) even have increase.
Also, the 3 days weekend movement for One love almost mirror Alita. Alita added 50m after first Sunday and if One love followed that too, 100m is in sight.
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Oppenheimer leading BAFTA win with seven including best film, followed by Poor things at five.
-Aside from best actor (Paul vs Murphy), the rest of the three acting race are kind of over.
-Barbie officially lose its frontrunner status for production design to poor things
-American fiction is the frontrunner for adapted screenplay now. It won this category without being a best film nominee.
-Anatomy of fall is the film to beat at best original screenplay. I don’t think holdovers is taking this now since it hasn’t been wining.
-Sound category got interesting as ZOI surprise win here.
-VFX is still very up in the air as BAFTA pick PT as winner which wasn’t even nominated at the Oscar.
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46 minutes ago, tarabeesley said:
Did any other films in history get both the BAFTA, Golden Globe but loose out on the Oscar? Boy Heron also got many of the top film critics awards.
I think the biggest disparity was The Lego Movie winning the BAFTA but Oscar didn't even nominate it.
But apart from that result, BAFTAs predict the Oscar winner very well.
Nope. Never happened.
In all five major precursor (GG, BAFTA, PGA and Annie), Annie actually has the lowest match with Oscar whereas BAFTA has the highest match among all, followed by PGA but Annie is the most anime-friendly among all. So the race does look very evenly split right now.
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Holdovers passes 20m. The second Oscar best picture movie with a platform release model to hit that mark after PT. American fiction should be the third one. A good improvement from Oscar season last year where only EEAAO hit 20m mark.
On the other hand, it is confirmed that Iron Claw BO in the numbers is indeed overstated by around 550k. The numbers got their new year day figure wrong.
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It is quite obvious now the international bloc are voting in favour of Heron whereas US-based voters are favouring ATSV. I suppose PGA would go with ATSV. This is some good come back after Annie awards but like I said, I am not sure if BAFTA voters are taking this opportunity to correct their snub of Spirited Away 20 years ago, or they genuinely think Heron is a better film. This is a factor to consider because Oscar voters wouldn't have that overdue pressure for Miyazaki.
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15 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:
It will lose the first spot against a local movie called Exhuma.
I thought all local titles would have taken Lunar new year window for opening.
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10 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Who said six days?
It has always been 7-Days.
If we adjusted the holiday in accordance to the calendar methodology before 2024, i.e. New year eve until sixth day of CNY, the total BO should have been ¥6.47bn, it is actually slightly lower than 2023.
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Just now, Issac Newton said:
Who said six days?
It has always been 7-Days.
Clearly the data distortion is working here.
It is effectively 6 days because before 2024, the holiday window started from new year eve (neither the starting date listed here are the first day of new year), which is a day where BO is the the lowest and almost negligible.
But in 2024, they strip out New year eve from the holiday period, thereby removing the lowest day at the BO from holiday period. On top of that, they added another day (8 days in total). So effectively, they added two extra days to the holiday window. Therefore, 2021 record still stands, if by apple-apple comparison.
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Valentine Day aside, How is it an apple-to-apple comparison when they take 8 days for 2024 but only 6 days for 2023 and 2022? The two extra days + VD gave it an optical boost.
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Catering to both anime fans and general audiences, today GKids straddles many aspects of the animation ecosystem. Beckman thinks of GKids, which now has about 30 employees, less as an animation specialist and more as an innovative distributor of independent fare like A24 or Neon.
QuoteIn 2017, GKids returned to its roots in a way, starting one of its most profitable projects, Studio Ghibli Fest, which brings classics like “My Neighbor Totoro” or “Spirited Away” to theaters across North America for special screenings every year. In 2023 alone, the screening series grossed $15 million.
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ATSV is the biggest winner at Annie, wining 7 awards including Best Animated Feature and Direction. Heron takes 2 win in the category where ATSV isn't nominated. The favour again skewing ATSV heavily now.
Heron takes GG but do remember GG failed to recognize Miyazaki in the past, thus making Heron win looked like a "compensation" prize. Whereas critics choice and Annie which did pick Spirited Away as winner back in 2002, both of them choose ATSV in the showdown.
The surprise upset is still possible at the Oscar but I must say at this juncture it does look like ATSV is taking this one unless BAFTA and PGA mess up the race.
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Wonka 3rd Saturday was higher than than the second. Yeah some holiday calendar is affecting the pattern but the hold has been great. Should continue to hold number 1 spot and do at least 20m here until a perfect takeover by Dune 2 two weeks later.
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12 minutes ago, JustWatching said:
Marley crossed over into the mainstream decades ago. I went to a mostly white midwestern college in the 80s, and if you walked into any random dorm room and found a record collection, you were guaranteed to find four albums among its contents: Led Zep 4, Dark Side of the Moon, Eagles Live and Legend, the BM & the Wailers greatest hits compilation. Dude has a huge fan base among old white farts like me, who might not have gotten to the film yet but will. I expect good legs.Tbh, I didn't know this movie exist until few days before release although I know Bob Marley and few of his songs. I guess the wide awareness of his songs make the film far more accessible than people expect. I am also glad this movie isn't killed by poor critical reception. Boy on the boat, ABY, HG:BOSS and now Marley prove the meh RT score isn't end of the day and studio still can sell "bad" critically received movie without the need to dump them elsewhere. Among studio, Disney is the worst when come to selling a bad RT score movies. I always feel like their movies fumble right away if the RT score come out meh or poor like they don't know how to market them anymore.
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48 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
Wonka's legs are looooong man. May Dune has them too.
I hope WB do a double feature of Wonka and Dune. Glad that the movie didn't have to crawl to 200m.
Migration is another legs master, should up by at least 20% this weekend. I won't rule out the possibility that it could overtake Aquaman 2 for finish total at this point.
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3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
So, ummm, I said $46M on Wed in the weekday thread as my back-of-the-napkin work...do I win a prize:)...
I think 49m 6-days is still on table if Saturday bump is ok. Can't believe One love is easily outgrossing TCP. I guess OL playing more to diverse crowd is the reason why it manages hold better. Only 40% of the audience are Black as compared to 65% of TCP. Also, TCP was way too female-skewing at 75% as compared to just 56% of OL. With this, it should be safe to say One love won't collapse like TCP.
QuoteBlack moviegoers led at 40%, followed by Latino and Hispanic at 25% and Caucasians at 23% and Asian Americans at 5%. Fifty-two percent of Bob Marley‘s audience is over 35, with the largest demo being 35-44 at 22%.
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Mickey 17 || Warner || January 31, 2025 || Directed by Bong Joon Ho - Starring Robert Pattinson
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Even if this is not aiming for award, it is still too harsh to have his follow up treated this badly. It is not like they are putting this over the equally quiet MLK weekend.