George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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I don't know, those numbers seem a bit pessimistic to me. Tough to say how a "§live-action" TLK remake will do, but the original was very popular and the musical helped as well, so I wouldn't exclude the possibility of it doing a whole lot more than 2.5m.It's a bit of a wildcard though.
5m also seems rather low for Star Wars. If you ignore the first movie of a trilogy, which always was a bit inflated to the rest, you have Episode II at 5.7m, Episode III at 5.62m and Episode VIII a 5.9m. That's pretty consistent, regardless of what general opinion may or may not have been.
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9 hours ago, Moses said:
What about EG?
Too low to be listed. Only movies above a certain threshold get mentioned in the early trends.
The only mention of it was from the first trend, in which it was stated that it has passed the 5m admission mark.
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Second trend sees drops from the first one:
#1 Aladdin 125k
#2 Five Feet Apart 120k
#3 Men in Black 85k
#4 John Wick 3 50k
#5 Long Shot 47.5k
#6 Rocketman 45k
#7 Dark Phoenix 37.5k
#8 Brightburn 37.5k
#9 TKKG 25k
#10 Pikachu 25k
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2 hours ago, Omni said:
Projections from here on are kind of irrelevant. This is not a normal late-legs thing - on the domestic side at least. Movie could just make 15/20M more WW, or benefit from Toy Story 4, FFH or Labor's Day...or all of them. And those would not be rereleases. Domestic range actually goes from 840- to 855+.
That seems like an extremely optimistic view to me.
IW made about 15m the rest of the way, and if you start at the point in time that saw IW make about as much as Endgame does now, there are less than 10m left. Seeing how Endgame is constantly dropping slightly worse than IW did, there isn't really much reason to assume that this is suddenly going to change. Unless there is a very drastic spike in interest, it should be around 840m in the end. And even with a spike it's very unlikely to get past 845m.
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This third trend surely will lift up everyone's opinion about the weekend
Seriously though, all numbers are up from the second trend:
#1 Aladdin 115k
#2 MiB 110k
#3 John Wick 65k
#4 Dark Phoenix 52.5k
#5 Rocketman 50k
#6 Godzilla 35k
#7 The Dead Don't Die 32.5k (with previews?)#8 Pikachu 27.5k
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3rd trend looks much better, everything is up from the last one:
#1 Aladdin: 180k (-38%)
#2 Dark Phoenix: 130k
#3 John Wick 3: 120k (-34%)
#4 Rocketman: 85k (-29% / -40% with previews)
#5 Godzilla: 70k (-50% / -56% wp)
#6 Pikachu: 50k (-59%)
#7 Ma: 40k (-22%)
#8 Endgame: 40k (-50%)
#9 TKKG: 37.5k
#10 The Hustle: 27.5k (-41%)
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The second trend has barely any movement, the only changes are:
Dark Phoenix 125k -> 110k
Godzilla 55k -> 60k
Ma, Endgame and Pikachu are in the 30-35k range
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Some minor changes for the third trend, some movies up, some movies down:
#1 Aladdin: 280k
#2 John Wick 3: 175k
#3 Godzilla 2: 150k
#4 Rocketman: 135k
#5 Pokemon: 115k
#6 Avengers: 75k
#7 Ma 50k
#8 The Hustle 45k
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Setting dates way in advance is hardly unique to Disney, it's a common thing among most studios.
In general, studios often don't quite seem to have grasped yet that staying clear of competition is much better than picking a good date that is surrounded by competition. If you offer a great movie that people want to see, it doesn't really matter that hardly anything big opened in that spot before. But if you only offer second rate stuff or not even that, you don't have to wonder why no one is going to see your movie.
I doubt that It would have been quite as large if it hadn't been for August being completely dead. The whole month didn't see any big release, only low to mid budget movies. That simply mustn't happen, regardless of whether one movie moved away relatively late. The month looked dead way in advance, and it should have been obvious to everyone.
But then again, this is hardly unique to the US. Studios seem to be even more unaware when it comes to foreign markets. You would think that they would hire some people who have at least a remote idea how a market works. Instead they ignore the best season of a market, let a ton of releases bunch up on a small number of dates, have similar movies release way too close to each other, or don't even release movies that are tailor-made for a market just because they have failed elsewhere.
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Sunday trend not looking all that hot, basically everything is down:
#1 Aladdin 325k
#2 John Wick 3 325k
#3 Pikachu 135k
#4 Endgame 105k
#5 The Hustle 75k
#6 Collini 30k
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7 hours ago, feasby007 said:
Does that bode well for The Lion King by any chance?
Tough to say. TLK was an absolute giant back in the 90s, and the musical and ancilliary stuff have kept its popularity high, but none of the Disney remakes have been particularly impressive so far. BatB was the most successful with a solid 3.4m admissions. It seems Germans aren't all that interested in seeing something that is just a slight variation of a movie that already exists, but who knows, maybe this time it's going to be different.
I'd say that IF one of the Disney-remakes should make it big, it's probably this one. But that's kind of a meaningless statement
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16 hours ago, TimmyRiggins said:
The performance of Avatar in Germany, Russia especially blows my mind, Germany is such a dead market these days, and Russia is usually not a leggy market at all. Damn, thanks for this.
The result in Germany is heavily influenced by 3D and absurdly good exchange rates back then. Apply current exchange rates and the movie is almost 40m lower than that. Which isn't to say that it wasn't an amazing result, even a movie with half of the attendance would be a huge success right now, but circumstances make it look bigger than it actually was. It had less admissions than the first Harry Potter, and thanks to double and triple features the first LOTR beat it out as well. And Titanic is on a whole different level. Even if you added 50% admissions on top, Avatar still wouldn't reach Titanic.
Then again, Avatar 2 may just be a movie that could spark a ton of interest again. Not because the first one was beloved, but because it fits to the general taste of German audiences. Over the last few years, Hollywood hasn't really delivered much at all that would create a ton of interest. The only really big movie was TFA. Followed by a bit of James Bond, TLJ, Minions or the Hobbit trilogy. All the CBMs have led to a growth in that particular area, but they haven't exactly been big yet.
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2 hours ago, terrestrial said:
In Germany is not one CBM on the top 100 admissions chart. But Fantasy, Sci-Fi, 007,.... is on it plus classics, animated, comedy, drama, Schmalz,.... titles are on it a lot.
Its doing very well for a CBM here. Atypical in the amount in my POV = also very good in the OV screenings.
Technically Men in Black is a CBM, and that one sits at 44th alltime (well, of the modern era) with 7.35m admissions or so. Though I doubt that anyone but a tiny subgroup of the audience knew or cared that it was based on a comic book. Not that the movies were all that similar to the comics anyway
Endgame seems to be selling really well so far. Should definately head for a 1m+ opening again, likely rising quite a bit from Infinity War. The fanbase has been growing over time. It's still not huge, but definately one of the bigger ones around right now.
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On 4/8/2019 at 1:53 PM, titanic2187 said:
The over consumption of the superhero genre around the world didn't help German box office
I'd say that is very much correct. Hollywood simply doesn't really produce the movies anymore that work well in Germany. The genres that work the best here aren't really en vogue in the US right now, and they aren't necessarily all that interesting for the rising markets either. That isn't entirely their fault, doing something that works well in asia will get you more money than something that caters mostly to Germans. Many times the studios don't think things through though. At times you see them not even releasing a movie that would fit well in Germany, because it doesn't really garner a lot of interest elsewhere either. So instead of deciding things market by market, they just make general decisions for broad regions at the most.
Apart from the issues of just not enough Hollywood-productions that cater to German tastes, the release-schedule is another big reason why things don't work. Stuff just gets thrown out there regardless of how big the competition is. Local holidays that would offer an advantage often get ignored. And delivering tentpoles when Germans actually want to go to the cinema (e.g. winter) doesn't happen all that often. I guess the latter is a consequence of studios trying to keepthe release dates as closely together as possible, born out of the desire to keep pirating down. Only Japan really seems to get a different treatment.
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I'm not 100% sure, but I think TFA did have a bit of a delayed presale, because there was a disagreement between Disney and some of the biggest theater-chains over the terms. E.g. Cinemaxx and another chain of that size didn't start presales until some weeks later. That definately should have affected first day sales.
At least I think that was for TFA and not another SW-movie that followed.
Early numbers sound good for Endgame, but I doubt that it will add a ton to IW's final numbers. Improving on the opening could be doable, but I wouldn't expect it to blow past 4m admissions total.
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2 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:
Aladdin doing $100M in Japan, LOL okay. IW couldn't even do that. You'll be lucky to even get $35-50
Not quite sure why you picked IW as a counter-example, as the MCU is notoriously weak in Japan compared to the rest of the world, as are comic book movies in general. Even POTC 5 outclasses the biggest of these movies. There isn't another big market where that movie came even close to IW, but it easily won in Japan.
100m for Aladdin is definately on the optimistic side, but then again, it is hardly impossible, seeing how Beauty and the Beast topped that mark. Japan does not work like any other market in the world, it has a specific taste and a unique behaviour for its box office runs. Latest impressions haven't exactly been trending towards a huge run for Aladdin, but it should still deliver a good result that should handily beat IW there.
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21 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:
I missed whatever likely Matrix quote it might be then.
What should we be listening for?
"So what do you need, besides a miracle?" "Guns...lots of Guns", is the dialogue betweenwhat Tank and Neo in the preparation for the rescue-mision to save Morpheus. Here the question is slightly different.
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1 hour ago, ElsaRoc said:
TFA was strong WW, but it wasn't huge like it did DOM, so I think that cuts it out.
That's a bit misleading though, isn't it?
China throws a big wrench into such a comparison.
TFA joined Titanic and Avatar as the only movies to top 1b internationally without China. Nothing came close to that mark until Infinity War hit 1b as well. The closest movie would be the last Harry Potter, which stands at right about 900m. Only Frozen at about 825m and The Avengers at about 810m even managed to cross 800m internationally minus China.
The emergence of China has a second massiv market next to the domestic one has made quite a few big worldwide hits look bigger internationally than they actually were in most of the world. At this stage it probably makes more sense to split the worldwide intake into three categories: domestic, China, and the remaining international markets. Else you run into a situation where you judge the entire international behaviour just on one market. E.g. The Fate of the Furious looks much bigger than The Last Jedi internationally (1.01b to 712m, it's not really close), suggesting that it was just so much bigger everywhere outside the domestic market. But if you remove China, TLJ was actually bigger in the rest of the world, 670m to 617m or so. China is just too massive a market to properly use the international intake as a whole in a comparison for the general behaviour in the international markets. A large intake in China can make a movie look much bigger internationally, just like a small one can make a movie look smaller compared to one that is pretty similar basically all over the world. That's only fair when judging the worldwide intake, but it can be misleading when one tries to judge the "average" international performance of a movie.
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Went to the new Astor Film Lounge for the first time this weekend, and I have to say I like that kind of approach. There are really two ways that I think work for theaters: lower prices and try to make the money through ancilliary stuff like snacks, or go for the opposite approach and offer high quality seats and tons of service on top of it, at a slightly higher price.
It's great to have a comfortable reclining seat with lots of space in every direction. I was only in the cheaper section ("Parkett"), otherwise there would have even been a footrest as well. Ordering drinks and popcorn at your seat and getting it delivered to you is great. In a way, it probably makes you buy more than you would buy normally
Sadly there were some technical issues with the movie, the sound was missing here and there, which eventually caused them to stop the movie to fix the issue, but they had someone come in right away to explain the problem and to apologize. They also delivered free drinks on top of that, and handed out vouchers after the movie. You really couldn't ask for more than that when such an issue arrives.
The theater probably isn't something you would watch every random movie in, because it does come at quite the price, but if there is a movie you really want to see, it can enhance your entire experience.
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Third trend is up:
#1 CM 625k
#2 HTTYD3 160k
#3 Ostwind 160k
#4 Green Book 150k
#5 Escape Room 115k
#6 Hard Powder 75k
#7 Rate your Date 65k
#8 Alita 50k
#9 Lego Movie 2 50k
# 10 BR 47.5k
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9 minutes ago, REC said:
If it makes you feel better the actual average score among all critics is about 69%. This gets averaged up to 82-83% since RT generates the top number only looking at whether a review was overall positive or negative.
Check the details on all critic reviews, you’ll see this is what they do. It’s not just CM obviously, you can go back for years and see many movies get their top line scores bolstered by 10-20%.
I’m not saying anything one way or the other or making any sort of value judgment, it’s how RT works. Since you wondered.
Um, what?
Nothing gets bolstered at all, that's not how RT works.
The RT-rating is entirely about whether the critic recommends the movie or not. It has very little to do with how good it was, only with how many people liked it. If every single critic gave a movie a 7/10, it would be at 100% at RT, even though no one loved the movie.
The RT-rating and the average score are two seperate things. The former gives you a general yes/no answer as a percentage from all critics. It's about how many critics liked the movie. The latter gives you the average of all ratings given by all critics, showing you how much the critics liked the movie on average.
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15 hours ago, Aristis said:
Yeah, as Brainbug said it's not the most probable outcome for now.
Would probably need around €88M and therefore around 7,3M admissions (with 12€ TP after 11,32€ and 11,78€ for the first two SW). Since I seem to be one of the only people thinking it'll increase to over 6M again after SW8 5,9M the odds aren't in its favor... But I hope Germany might surprise
I think something around or just below 6m admissions is the obvious target.
Looking back at the (modern) Star Wars Episodes in Germany:
prequels: I: 8.04m (without the 3D re-release), II: 5.7m, III: 5.62m
sequels: VII: 9.06m, VIII: 5.9m
The first of each trilogy is always the big one due to pend up demand, afterwards all movies fall in roughly the same range at just below 6m. Could just be coincidence, but for now I would go with something along those lines.
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5 minutes ago, boyamama said:
i'm sorry..this is admission or money???...
Admissions. There usually aren't any detailed reports about the money until actuals comes out.
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16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
How high can BR go? can it hit 2.5m admission?
Is next Monday Epiphany day helps？
It should definately top 2.5m now.
The whole next week are still school holidays in the entire country, so movies shouldn't drop much. Though even with 50% drops the rest of the way BR would still reach 2.5m, so it should add a bit on top of that.
Epiphany Day falls on Sunday though, not Monday, and it is only a holiday in three states out of 16 anyway, so it isn't going to make much of a difference.
Jumanji: The Next Level l Sony l December 13, 2019 l 10th Most Profitable Movie of 2019
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
I guess the confusion came from the "this christmas" bit in the teaser. But that was meant as a general timeline (i.e. close to the holidays) and not as the opening actually happening on christmas itself.