George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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Second trend is up, Jumanji jumped up a bit, while Star Wars dropped, otherwise no changes:
#1 SW9 275k
#2 Knives Out 195k
#3 Frozen 2 160k
#4 Jumanji 2 145k
#5 Zauberhafte Schwestern 110k
#6 Kaninchen 100k
#7 Geheimnis 90k
#8 Spione Undercover 60k
#9 The Grudge 55k
#10 Queen & Slim 32.5k
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What's kind of funny is how TROS and ROTS compare at this specific point in time:
ROTS: 612k 3rd weekend, 4.368m total
TROS: 610k 3rd weekend, 4.372m total
Just 2k apart on the weekend, and less than 4k in total. What are the odds of that?
ROTS should move ahead over the next few weeks though.
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2 hours ago, Viktor Vilotijevic said:
I think 260-270 million $ globally is what we should hope for.
That sounds rather pessimistic to me. The movie is heading for 140-150m domestically at the very least. That means to reach your number the international total would only be 110-120m. The movie might already reach the lower end of that range from the holdovers alone. I think 130m internationally should be possible, if not more, depending on the legs.
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It's opening in Germany this weekend, and it might add another $7m there, maybe more if it develops great legs. There are also some smaller European markets opening as well, so maybe that could make it 10m if you add it on the German total. That leaves Japan, where it will open late January. I have absolutely no idea how it will fare there. Maybe that's another 10-15m or so based on how Murder on the Orient Express did there?
Not sure if the holdovers have enough steam to make up the gap to 300m, unless the domestic total goes quite a bit beyond 150m or Japan really surprises.
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52 minutes ago, PKMLover said:
I understood this very well and I already expected low increase for this whole week. But do you find it weird that this week monday and tuesday it still jumped very high but wednesday it doesn't?
No, because all you need to do is look at where it jumped from. Corpse already explained that well enough.
All you really need to do is look at how the past week went:
Frozen made 90m on Monday, 105m on Tuesday, 195m on Wednesday, 170m on Thursday and 180m on Friday. In other words: last week saw a giant boost happening right from Wednesday on. The first two weekdays were a whole lot smaller than the last three weekdays. This means that there is plenty of room to jump on Monday or Tuesday, while not so much growth the rest of the week, simply because the point of comparison is much larger to begin with.
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That weekend was also the last time we had this exact holiday schedule. Kind of fitting actually.
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11 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:
I think it's fair enough if the average person didn't know about the Jedi but Mandalorians should know all about them being the sworn enemy.
Palpatine's main thing wasn't eradicating the existance of the Jedi as much as character assassinating them.
"The sworn enemy" aeons ago. There is little reason why someone who grew up post extinction of the Jedi should know much about them at all. There were no Jedi left, and hardly any Mandalorians, and those who were still alive were mostly in hiding. Add to that that this Mando was adopted and some point and not a born Mandalorian, and that bounty hunters mostly operate on the fringes, where there is no real rule of law. Hardly the place you would run into many Jedi. Nor the place where people would randomly talk about them for no good reason at all (this isn't the old Republic anymore).
Not to mention that having heard of the Jedi still isn't remotely the same as having any ideas of what they were capable of. Again, if a leading military member of the Empire doesn't know about the Jedi at all, why would a random Mandalorian be supposed to know about them?
The galaxy is a huge place, it is very likely that the majority of beings in the galaxy has never met or heard of Jedi. And this remains true for those who travel between worlds as well.
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3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:
@a2k Hobbit increased 41% from eve.
Thus, 9.5m+ Thursday is possible.
Thursday 9.5m
Friday 12m
Saturday 15.6m
Sunday 9.2m
Weekend :36.8m
The Hobbit also increased 77% on christmas day, while TROS only managed to increase about 59%. I don't see much of a reason to assume that this will be different this time around. The numbers are quite a bit larger, so the increases should be worse.
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6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Were these the kind of drop experienced the last time NYD fell on a Wednesday?
The majority of movies dropped somewhere around 50% from Wednesday to Thursday. There was the occasional 40% drop, for Frozen for example, but the majority fell worse than that.
I see very little chance for TROS to have a 10m+ day unless Wednesday approaches 20m, which seems rather unlikely right now.
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14 hours ago, Taruseth said:
Perfectly illustrating the problem Star Wars has it lost its chance in Asia and lost its pole position in Europe.
Even in the "Superhero hating country" (Germany doesn't really hate superhero movies but for a long time they had a bad performance here compared to a lot of other countries and even now outside of Endgame they haven't really entered Tier 1 territory yet - damn Germany it is heading to a result right around Endgame (if you would have asked me during TFA's run if a Superhero movie could end up around or above a Episode, I would have said No, never.)
Is there any market where it has a chance of beating TLJ.
I have no idea - don't think it will get quite that far in Germany in admissions or €, in $ (due to the worse ER it's impossible).
I don't think it is as surprising as you make it out to be. Yes, TFA was on another level, but that one also had completely unique circumstances. It's not like Star Wars has been a dominant franchise in Germany, rather it has always maintained a similar level, and only a long break followed by lots of hype has created the odd peak here and there. Back in 2002, AOTC beat Spiderman 5.7m to 5.2m, and while Spiderman certainly wasn't the norm for superhero movies, neither is Endgame.
Japan is the only real chance that I can see right now. The longetivity of that market makes it hard to say at this point, but so far it is neck and neck with TLJ. Unless there is a smaller market somewhere that has better numbers. Those are a bit hard to be aware of.
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1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:
The Jedi have been around for thousands of years including during the lifetime of these well-traveled people; it doesn't make any sense that they have never heard of their powers or even just the word "Jedi".
You do realize that the majority of this worlds population is completely oblivious to the majority of "well known facts" or historic figures of human history, yes?
And that is just one planet. Not a galaxy.
The Jedi never numbered more than a few thousand. Meeting one of them probably has weaker odds than winning the lottery. And even if you somehow ran into one or heard about them, it still doesn't mean that you have any idea what they stand for or what they are capable of. Not to mention that "knowing" a Jedi isn't the same as knowing something about the force or having seen one of them in action. Jedi were guardians of peace, not soldiers. They weren't running around fighting people left and right. For the majority of their missions they would be little beyond embassadors or envoys who reach a diplomatic solution to an issue. They also lived their life secluded from the public.
Then you get to the point that the Empire has tried its hardest to get rid of them and keep it that way. Just watch the original movie. If a high-ranking imperial officer is basically completely unaware of the force or the Jedi, what makes you assume that they or their skills would somehow be common knowledge in this day and age?
The Mandalorian is too young to have any immediate knowledge about the Jedi. He was still a child when the clone wars happened. Then he was part of the Mandalorians, hardly a group of people who spend much time out in the public. Cara Dune would have a pretty good reason to know about Luke Skywalker, but knowing about a hero of the rebellion and witnessing his skills are two completely different things.
One can reasonably assume that plenty of people in the galaxy will at least have heard of the Jedi at some point. More so before the Empire than afterwards. But plenty doesn't mean all of them or even the majority.
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2 hours ago, CloneWars said:
Maybe they are trying to pretend the Prequels don't exist. I don't know. The Jedi were a pretty big deal during the Clone Wars. Maybe the Mandalorians avoided talking about Jedi then. I don't know. My guess is the Empire made it illegal to talk about Jedi, distribute anything about the Jedi like literature and if you did, they killed you. That's my guess. I'm guessing it was a taboo topic during the age of the Empire. Still though, the Clone Wars is roughly 25ish years prior to this show. That's not a super long time ago.
The Mandalorian really couldn't be further away from pretending that the prequels don't exist. It's full of connections to the PT.
The Empire clamping down on any knowledge of the Jedi would be the far more likely option. Not to mention that a galaxy is vast, and no matter how important the Jedi were, they were hardly everywhere. It's not like planets are small either. Even if one comes to visit, you aren't particularly likely to meet one. Then there is the difference between hearing about "famous warriors" and actually seeing their use of "magic" with your own eyes. So even if you have heard of Jedi, that doesn't mean you would have any idea what they are really capable of.
Cara Dune not having heard about it is a bit odd. Then again, who knows when she got involved. At that point Luke might not have been all that active as a soldier anymore.
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I didn't even notice this before, but the current trend for TROS is just 10k behind TFA for the best second weekend of all Star Wars movies.
Not that that really means much, as it comes from the nature of the current release schedule (TLJ also beat TFA's third weekend by 1k or so).
Won't help much against the losses over the weekdays of the next two weeks though. The movie should be roughly were Episodes II, III and VIII were after its third weekend. There's an odd amount of consistency in that. II sat at 4.43m after three weekends, III at 4.37m, VIII at 4.39m.
In the end, Germany might actually end up the core Star Wars market that holds the best compared to the last one, even if it finishes below all of II, III and VIII. The only market that might do better is Japan.
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2 minutes ago, Menor said:
Or they could indirectly capitalize on Mando by doing a story about the Mandalorian Wars. That would have the scale audiences expect from SW stories while still offering a fresh angle.
That does connect to KOTOR again though, as the Mandalorian Wars are the lead-in to the story, and are heavily featured in both games.
On the plus side, The Mandalorian is certainly hot right now, but on the opposite end it would take years to get the movie done, and things might look different by then. Not to mention the shift in tone. In the show the Mandalorians are sort of the heroes, in the Mandalorian Wars they are the clear cut villains.
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13 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
I've only played the first game (I started playing it a few weeks ago) but I think its too dark, complex, and weird. I really don't see general audiences liking a faithful adaptation. I don't think thats the route Star Wars should be taking right now if they want to win back the GA and fans. Its something they should make after getting everyone back on board.
I don't think the game is all that dark, at least not in a way that you couldn't translate into a fun adventure for everyone. There are some darker beats, sure, but then again, those have always existed in Star Wars. Nor does the story seem all that complex when presented in its purest form. You obviously won't be able to include everything, but you wouldn't really need to. Though I guess it would make sense to make it at least a two-parter, as there is too much to do for just one movie.
Now the second game is a different matter. That has some crazy stuff in it. And the only reason why people wouldn't scream bloody murder over it far more than they did for TLJ is that there simply isn't the same connection as to the characters that made Star Wars popular in the first place. The content itself makes all those claims about TLJ trying to re-imagine Star Wars absolutely lolworthy.
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19 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:
One concern I have with KOTOR is that they'd probably adopt a lame path (light side). Even the lame KOTOR paths are pretty cool though.
I think the bigger issue is them already having taken quite a few of the story-beats or general details for their movies.
Putting it in spoilers as some of it might give a hint at TROS, even if it doesn't explicitly say anything about the movie:
- Artifical construct that gains energy from a star
- two main characters in flux between the light and dark who share a force-bond
- an endless fleet
- a snarky droid who is good at killing things (granted, KOTOR's is way more homicidal)
- a Jedi council that has to share part of the blame for how things are going
- a Republic on the back foot under an onslaught by the Sith
- quite a few other things that have slipped my mind because I'm too tired right now
Not to mention a ship that is vaguely similar to the Falcon, and faceless enemy troopers. Though that could fall more under offering something similar that is still different in style, which might actually work in its favour.I think it would be a great story to tell, but maybe not as the next thing that is coming up. I'd probably go with a Kevin Feige produced one-off as the next one. Not because I think he's some sort of saviour, but because he's at his peak right now. Maybe he isn't all that well known to the average person, but if there is one person who could inspire the necessary trust from a broad range of people, it would be him. This would also give more time for a larger project that would follow afterwards.
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I don't know if 700k would be all that realistic. The Hobbit 2 dropped from 1.075k to 620k.
I think if the current numbers hold, the two might be really close to each other after the third weekend (in terms of total, not weekend number). But TLJ should have a much better set of weekdays following that, and also a better 4th weekend, as that was the tail-end of the holidays in at least part of the nation for TLJ while being a regular one for TROS.
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'Mandalore the Great' is also a new one, isn't it?
We've had Mandalore the First, the Indomitable, the Ultimate, the Preserver, and quite a few others, but none of them were called the Great.
Really good episode to finish the season. I don't think that it is quite a match for the best episodes of the season, but definately a very good one.
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17 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:
Oh I'm sure they expected that and if they didn't there idiots. The film that reunites the audience with the original characters, plus adding new ones to the story. Who wouldn't expect that to break records? What they did not expect is what TLJ would do to the value of the IP going forward.
Lol, just no.
No one in their right mind would have expected that. The last movie that came before didn't do anything like that at all. Heck, even TPM didn't have that kind of success, and that was the return of Star Wars in the first place. Go and look at the general expectations around the years 2014 and early 2015. You might find the odd person who believed it could get past Avatar, but that was still far away from topping 900m, and the opinion was also far away from being the norm. It wasn't even the consensus that the movie would win the year, not after The Avengers had made 620m and Age of Ultron was coming up. Again, the "last Star Wars movie ever" (ROTS) made 380m domestically. Even with the return of the original characters, basically no one believed that TFA would way more than double that total.
It wasn't until presales went bonkers that more people started to get the idea that this would be one for the ages, instead of just a really huge blockbuster. And even then it was more about "could / would it beat Avatar", not "will it get to 1b or not".
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Just now, Cappoedameron said:
This is just sad. The finale of the entire saga is being compared with a spin off/one off entry in terms of box office. I'm pretty sure Disney did not expect this when they bought Star Wars.
They probably also didn't expect for TFA to slaughter everything - including Avatar - domestically, and finishing above 2b worldwide either...
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14 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:
After a 4-day 433M, with all Christmas season ahead?
101%
My question would be: Could TROS make $1B before the 31st?
It took TLJ 21 days or so to get to 1b, I doubt that TROS will be faster than that. If anything, it should take quite a bit longer.
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7 minutes ago, LonePirate said:
Han died in TFA. Luke died in TLJ. Carrie Fisher passed away irl shortly after TLJ was released. It was always going to be tough for audience nostalgia over the original trilogy to translate to TROS.
She actually died one year earlier, just after the release of Rogue One. Not that this changes your point in any way
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1 hour ago, Marek the Jedi said:
I am sure it will be more then 70-80mil
70 does sound way too low, it would need mid 20s on Friday and Saturday for that to happen. If it follows the usual trends of this sort of schedule, I could see the lowpoint at maybe 75m to 78m, but not lower than that, A more likely target would be 80-85m, provided it stays at around 30m for the next few days. 90m would require something closer to mid 30s, and I'm not sure if it can do that for multiple days in a row.
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1 hour ago, misafeco said:
I was thinking about how the calendar will effect the grosses in the upcoming 2 weeks. New Year on Wednesday is probably great news as a lot of people will be still on vacation for the rest of the week as it only requires 2 days off. TLJ was less fortunate because 1st of Jan was on Monday, it's probably the reason Disney decided to send to theaters 1 week earlier.
I don't know if that is going to make much of a difference.
Looking back at the week-to-week drops, Hobbit 2 under the same scenario went with -16.7%, +5%, -16.3%, -61.5% and then -49.1% on Friday.
In comparison, Hobbit 1, which had the 1st on Tuesday instead of Wednesday, went +0.3%, -15.9%, -60.9%, -62.1% and then -51.3%.
There might still be a slight boost, dropping only 60% week-to-week instead of the 70%+ you often see under other circumstances, but the effect seems rather limited, especially when compared to the 1st falling onto a Thursday or Friday. You also run into even harsher drops the week after. The Hobbit movies dropped over 80% at times in their following set of weekdays, while movies that had the 1st on the weekend or on Monday already moved back to generic 40-50% drops.
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Weekend Thread: Thursday Night Preview - 1917 $3.25M | Like a Boss $1M | Just Mercy $800K | Underwater $500K
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I don't think it makes much of a difference at all. People still need to go and see the movie, they don't just appear at a theater and get forced to watch a specific movie that they don't get to choose.
There might be a very small benefit due to having more expensive shows available, but that is pretty negligible compared to the gross as a whole.