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George Parr

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    BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    2nd trend is up, bit of a mix compared to the first one as only Truth or Dare is up with everything else staying flat or going down. Instead of six possible 100k grossers it's now down to four:

     

    #1 Infinity War 425k (-10%)

    #2 Truth or Dare 135k

    #3 Rampage 115k

    #4 Liliane Susewind 100k

    #5 I Feel Pretty 95k

    #6 Jim Knopf 75k (+120%)

    #7 Sherlock Gnomes 45k (+95%)

    #8 Early Man 30k (+82%)

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY | 179.1 M overseas ● 392.9 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    On 23.4.2018 at 9:10 PM, Taruseth said:

    For now I would say:

    Uk 60Mio

    Germany 25Mio

    Japan 25Mio

    France 20Mio

    Australia 20Mio

    China 10 Mio

    'Rest' 140Mio

    Total OS: 300Mio 

     

    Just 25m in Germany?

    That would be below 2m admissions. I can see it miss out on 3m, but below 2m seems way too harsh to me. Something like $35m sounds more reasonable to me (2.5-2.75m admissions). Same with France, I really don't see how it makes just half of what Rogue One made.

    • Like 1

    BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Seems like my area was actually hit the hardest by the weather yesterday, in all of Germany that is. And I wasn't even there to see it ;)

     

    Whole streets turned into rivers, some of which are still closed down today. One street away from my home they had to evacuate a building because it was in danger of collapsing (and itwill have to be taken down now). An endless amount of cellars were flooded, gardens turned into lakes. There are even videos and pictures of cars and busses wading through the water that was standing higher than the tires. A bit further to the east, power was out and a railroad embankment was in danger of breaking. And then there was the underground parking lot which was flooded by 3 meters of water :D

     

    They had to send fire-brigades from halfway across Hamburg to help out. All because of one measily thunderstorm. I guess that is what happens when your area is partially marsh/wetland partially the slope of a Urstromtal. The ground is already wet without that much water, while the "hills" just send the water down in masses if you actually get heavy rain.

     

     

    As for the weekend: I had already thought that it might stay almost flat from last weekend, but I wasn't quite sure if the holds would turn out to be that good, so I went with the more safe "good holds" before the weekend ;)

    • Like 1
    • Astonished 1

    Monday number IW 8.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, baumer said:

     

    I think it seems kind of low in comparison to other Marvel films in their third weekend.

    I agree, compared to the three othe huge Marvel movies that increase would be kind of soft. Then again, the Wednesday drop* looks better than what I would expect, so maybe that counters it a bit, as the number going into the weekend is higher than it should be.

     

    * listed as 25% rise followed by a 26% drop, in comparison, BP rose 26 and dropped 32.6%, AoU rose 11 and dropped 27.5% and TA rose 7% and dropped 25.2%. The latter two don't fit quite as much due to their lower Tuesday increase, but all three movies still show that the Wednesday drop should be expected to be quite a few percentage points larger than the Tuesday increase. Down 30% to 7.4m sounds like a better fit to such a Tuesday increase to me. Add the 5% Thursday drop to around 7m, and the Friday jump to 17m would be around the "common" Marvel 2nd Friday jump of around 145%.

    Avengers Infinity War OW contestaroo

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

    I am calling for the breaking for the Saturday record by a slim margin but it seems many think it will beat it by 10 million.

     

    With BP doing 66 million, I think it could happen IDK.

    I agree, low 70s for the Saturday sound possible, but I have no idea where these 80m or more predictions come from. Most of the money comes from a specific amount of theaters, and those already ran chock-full of people all day long for TA, JW, TFA and to a slightly lesser extend for some other movies. If ticket prices have become more expensive there is a chance for a slight increase (hence low 70s), but there isn't really a whole lot of room to shatter records.

    BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by George Parr

    6 hours ago, feasby007 said:

    I'm confused, I though the numbers in this thread were for Germany and Austria combined? As per the title of the thread?

     

    have I been mistaken for over a year

     

    In addition to what the other have already written: the title refers to Germany's and Austria's numbers both getting posted in this topic, as the two markets have similar tastes and are the only completely German-speaking markets that exist. And with Austria on its own being a pretty small market, it makes more sense to simply list the numbers here as well, as a whole topic just for such a small market would probably be overkill. It doesn't mean that the markets get counted together like the USA+Canada in the domestic one.

    Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | December 22 2017 | Special showings for Amazon Prime members on December 8

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

    Episode 9 is nearly certain to decline as Episode 8 was a very standalone SW film.  

     

    It wasn't really. Not that it has any bearing on the next one, as AOTC was a "very standalone" film as well, and ROTS still went up quite a bit.

     

    There are other factors that will decide whether IX will go up or down. There isn't anything that at this point would make it "near certain" for IX to go down (or up for that matter).

    BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Monday numbers are in, quite the jump for Jim Knopf:

     

    #1 Ready Player One 62.5k

    #2 Jim Knopf 52.5k

    #3 A Quiet Place 47.5k

    #4 Blockers 42.5k

    #5 Lady Bird 35k (with previews)

     

    As reported on insidekino, one of only seven weekends since 1987 on which the top 10 had less than 300k admissions. Five out of those seven happened during a big football tournament, making this the second worst non-football-tournament weekend and worst weekend for the first five months of any year.

    • Like 1

    AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

    Fuck, how does Furious go over 1B OS (twice so far)? China boost only? 

    Yes, it is almost all about China. If you take the top 10 internationally and then subtract the numbers froim China, you end up with this:

     

    #1 Avatar 1.823b (was #1 with China)

    #2 Titanic 1.484b (was #2)

    #3 TFA 1.007b (was #4)

    #4 HP7.2 ~900m (was #7)

    #5 Frozen 827m (was #10)

    #6 The Avengers 809m (was #9)

    #7 Jurassic World 791m (was #5)

    #8 Furios 7 773m (was #3)

    #9 Age of Ultron 706m (was #8)

    #10 Fate of the Furious 617m (was #6)

     

    The last two actually fall behind quite a few other movies, like Minions (~755m), POTC4 (735m), Skyfall (744m), with quite a few more coming in ahead of F8 but not AoU.

     

    • Like 2

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I have to say, I find adjusting single days or weekends to be kind of useless. Adjusting a whole run already gives nothing more than a very rough guideline due to taking average ticket prices of all movies (at best using a 3 month period, at worst using one number of the entire year), but it gets far worse when doing that with single days. There are way too many special circumstances, especially at the start of a movie, to apply this method for single days or weekends.

     

    Any adjustment like that completely ignores the shares different screen-formats had, both for a day on its own and when judged over longer periods. It also fails to take into account that any difference in average ticket prices from one year to another one may not properly represent the increase in price among the screen-formats that were most common. E.g. a yearly average ticket price can rise if only normal 2D tickets got more expensive, while 3D, IMAX and all that sort of stuff stayed as expensive as before. In such a case, using the average ticket price to inflate a gross would give completely wrong numbers for movies that relied heavily on more expensive screen-formats.

     

    The change of the average ticket price over the years is extremely unlikely to match the proper adjustment for a single movie, regardless of whether it is a big blockbuster that runs in all sorts of expensive formats, or a smaller one that doesn't get that luxury.

    BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Indeed, at this point there isn't even a single theater. There is a new one that will open in three days, which then will show Black Panther as first movie, but beyond that there are no further commercial theaters.

     

    There is a plan to have around 350 theaters with 2500 screens by the year 2030, but at this point there basically aren't any, so the influence on the box office of any movie will be minimal at best.

    • Astonished 1

    BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    14 hours ago, Green245 said:

    I wish I could add to this impressive total that Black Panther was so good and so culturally significant that it was the first Western movie to open in Saudi Arabia in 35 years. The movie broke the 35 year ban on Western Films that had been in place since the mid 1980s. 

     

    No other movie has ever done that!

    I don't think that this had much to do with Black Panther though. The whole country didn't have any public cinemas for the last 35 years. Now they get re-introduced as part of the general softening on all sorts of regulations by crown prince Salman. So there wasn't any ban on western movies but a ban of theaters in general. Black Panther will be the first movie shown, but I haven't seen anything that would suggest that the decision to allow cinemas again was somehow connected to that movie.

    Weekend thread | Deadline Friday Est. (p.11) ~ PR:U 10.1M, BP 4.4M, ICOI 3.7M, TR 2.8M, SG 2.7M, AWIT 2.1M, L,S 2.3M, P,AOC 1.5M, MS 1.45M, GN 1.2M, U 1.3M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, a2knet said:

    630.25 after 16 weekend for BP according to Pro.BO.

    DP had a weekend of 8 and added 22 more. So those legs give BP 630.25 + 44 = 674.25

    DP's hold this weekend was really good though at 27% and showed some strong holds for a few weeks.

    But BP has been trending better so far and no reason why it can't make it to 675. Don't know why 700 seems so far all of a sudden. Looked real at one point.

    I think it depends on what one used to extrapolate further numbers. If one used Deadpool as a comparison, that was kind of misleading due to different behaviour during spring break. Black Panther had really low drops from day 25 to 29, and then reverted back to its normal drops around 40%, Deadpool, on the other hand, had 12 days of really low drops and a few better than usual drops sprinkled in before and after that period. Any projection for BP that used Deadpool's multiplier from a certain weekend on would thus be really inflated. Especially with spring break hitting later for Deadpool than for BP, which basically leads to counting spring break twice if you use Deadpool's numbers on Black Panther.

     

    This week BP seems to run slightly ahead of TFA, which made another 70m or so the rest of the way. So that would put BP at about 688m or so. On the other hand, TFA had some pretty great drops coming up, so BP might not be able to keep up with that pace. 675m sounds like a good target to me at that point.

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