George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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20 hours ago, Taruseth said:
What do you think will this movie finish with?
Something like $650M (so $126.7M) and $50M from China for $700M international.
(Last week means: Monday (25th) through Sunday (31st))
Total: $126.7 Needed for $650M (Last week: $142.1M)
Uk: $30M (=> Total: $111.5M) (Last week: $24.1)
Germany: $25M (=> Total: $87M) (Last week: $22M)
France: $15M (=> Total: $60.6M) (Last week: $16.3M)
Japan: $20M (=> Total: $60.4M) (Last Week $11,9M)
Australia; $10M (=> Total: $45.1M) (Last Week $8.2M)
So the others would need $26.7M that should be doable because for those the last week was $59.6M.
Japan is going to be much higher. It's a slow-burning market and the main holidays are just arriving right now. It should definately do 80m+ there if we go by what Corpse has suggested in his most recent updates.
Germany getting another 25m sounds doable to me. It's at roughly 4.5m admissions now, which means it should have between 1.5 and 2m left to go. Not sure if the average price is still this high, but early on it was at about €11.90, with an exchange rate around $1.20 per Euro. This puts it somewhere between 21m and 28m Dollar for the rest of the way. It should have a good chance at passing €70m and thus enter the top 10 alltime, finishing somewhere between 6th and 9th depending on how things go.
650m without China sounds very likely to me at this point. Even 675m doesn't sound that hard if I look at the numbers above. Yes, holidays are ending in most places, so the numbers are going to drop bigtime, but it's not like there is only one week left to reach the numbers mentioned above. Some of those numbers may be the high-end of what can be expected, but with Japan likely doing more, it should work out just fine. After all, the rest of the countries aren't going to finish with just 10m or so the rest of the way, when the last week got almost 60m. Even with huge drops, that would still lead to another 30-40m the rest of the way (e.g. something like 20+10+5+2+1+...)
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Frohes neues Jahr!
The Weekend estimates have arrived, and to celebrate the new year, almost everything is up a bit from the last trend:
#1 TLJ 835k
#2 Jumanji 315k
#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 315k
#4 PP3 205k
#5 Ferdinand 150k
#6 Coco 137.5k
#7 Paddington 2 97,5k
#8 Murder on the Orient Express 70k
#9 FjG3 45k
#10 Loving Vincent 30
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Well, you have to consider where the movies were coming from though.
TFA had its second weekend boosted by christmas day. This means its drop from first to second weekend was great for such a huge opening, especially when you add the fact that the first weekend had previews, but it also meant that the drop from second to third was going to be a bit bigger.
Rogue One had its second weekend hurt by christmas eve on Saturday, and only slightly boosted by christmas day on Sunday, so the second week drop was going to be bad. With NYE being a better box office day than christmas eve, while NYD being worse than christmas day, the movie could still get a good drop from second to third weekend.
TLJ, however, had the worst situation for the second weekend, as it was the only one that had the negative effect of christmas eve, without having the positive effect of christmas day to balance it a bit. Hence it dropped big time in its second weekend. With that drop already being bigger than "normal", the third weekend should have bounced back a bit (not necessarily have grown, not at such a size, but definately getting a great drop). So while the drop from second to third weekend does look good in itself, it pretty much comes from the fact that the second weekend was deflated and thus lower than it usually would have been.
It may be a bit unfair due to other circumstances, like difference in previews and the biggest holidays falling differently for eacht movie, but here's the drop from 1st to 3rd weekend:
Rogue One -68%
TFA -63%
TLJ -76%
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To be fair, their daily behaviour in between was completely different. They pretty much grew from Monday to Thursday.
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Probably just a coincidence, but the only movies on the same schedule who remotely behaved like TLJ is currently doing this weekend - meaning holding more or less steady from Thursday to Saturday - were Charlotte's Web and Happy Feet. Both increased a bit on Friday and then dropped on Saturday, which is the opposite behaviour, but the totals are more or less flat. Those two also had the lowest christmas day increase (like TLJ), held (among) the best on the 26th (like TLJ), and where among the lowest NYD increases and dropped the worst on the following weekend. That sounds like a pretty likely path for TLJ as well, though they really are completely different movies.
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2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
Best case is around 53.5, which requires RTH’s clue to be 19.8 instead of 19.5 and a 26% Sunday drop from the 19.8 Saturday.
Yeah, that's probably as high as it could get. That would put it at "just" -25% though, not that far away from Rogue One. Still quite a bit away from what seemed possible for the weekend.
Will still get the fifth best third weekend and third best third week, but that really should have been third best and second best each.
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28 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
So 3-day for Last Jedi could be around 51. That is over 28% drop compared to 22.5% for Rogue One. Ugly stuff.
TLJ had a surprisingly good Sunday drop last weekend though, if that repeats, it might go a bit higher than that.
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Just as I expected...
3rd trend:
#1 TLJ 825k
#2 Jumanji 305k
#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 290k
#4 PP3 195k
#5 Ferdinand 150k
#6 Coco 135k
#7 Paddington 2 92,5k
#8 Murder on the Orient Express 62,5k
#9 FjG3 40k
#10 Loving Vincent 27,5
TLJ, PP3 down from the last one. Jumanji, Ferdinand, Coco, Paddington Orient Express and Loving Vincent up slightly.
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22 minutes ago, JB33 said:
I agree with your post in general, but why then did Treverrow get fired? Yes, they knew that Abrams delivered a crowdpleaser but there has to be more to it than that. It had to be a conscious choice to go back to being safe.
I don't see why. They fired Trevorrow, then they looked for someone to replace him. Johnson wouldn't do it, and they knew that Abrams could deliver, so they just took what was the obvious choice. They already had problems with basically every other director, apart from Johnson, so they probably didn't want to pick someone new and have it turn into chaos again. The movie was supposed to start production pretty soon after all.
Trevorrow likely got fired over work issues. We won't know for sure, maybe he couldn't deliver a new script once his original idea that focused heavily on Leia wasn't possible anymore, or he just wasn't good to work with. They certainly weren't going to fire Trevorrow over TLJ, after all, he directed Jurassic World, which was a huge success and a crowd pleaser. There just isn't anything that connects the Trevorrow getting fired to a desperate need to have Abrams back to deliver a crowd pleaser because TLJ would be too divisive.
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28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
I almost have to wonder if Disney did realize TLJ was going to be divisive and just tried to divert with all the pre-release comments about how incredibly pleased and assured they were in it. Maybe that’s the real reason for Trevorrows axing and bringing back Abrams. They knew they were going to need another crowd pleaser like TFA after this movie.
I really can't see that. So they knew that this was going to be divisive and that they needed Abrams to come back to deliver a crowd pleaser, yet they went out and handed an entire trilogy to the guy responsible for the divisive movie? That makes no sense.
Yes, they probably did know that this movie would be more divisive, that's basically a given whenever you try something instead of playing it save. But there is no connection from there to feeling the need to hire Abrams to get a crowd pleaser. They hired Abrams because he did deliver an almost universally liked (though not necessarily loved) movie, and because Johnson didn't want to do IX at that point. That's basically it, they took the one guy they knew who could deliver. They didn't fire Trevorrow because of how divisive TLJ was going to be, nor were they desperate to get Abrams back because of TLJ either.
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Looking at some of the data on the insidekino boards, it seems like TLJ is doing worse than yesterday (which was already down from Thursday). One can only hope that the next trend won't be even lower than the last one. Not that 825-850k wouldn't still be an amazing third weekend, but it kind of sucks to get a bit of hope with the first trend and then see it go down with every new trend. That already happened with TFA as well.
Just once I'd like to see a surprising boost...
Also, TLJ should be at more or less the same level as the first Hobbit entering next weekend. That one finished with 6.56m or so. I don't think TLJ will be quite as big next weekend as the Hobbit was, so 6.5m sounds very much like the maximum to me.
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1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:
The calendar is not worse, just different from TFA. It is still receiving a crapload of holiday boost and it will have the boost for a longer stretch than TFA or Rogue One.
I have to disagree with that, the calender is worse. It's not the difference between exceeding, matching or falling short of expectations, but there is some sort of impact.
The holidays aren't all the same. There are some schedules that are a clear cut above the others. The number of "big" days may be roughly the same, but there is still a difference between the the weakest days of the period ruining what would be the weakest days of the weak anyway, or ruining what would be the biggest days of the week. Having christmas eve fall on Wednesday or Thursday is ideal. If you start the weekend before christmas, you get two weeks of uninterrupted holiday-boosted days. You start your first set of weekdays with much of the country on holiday, and are bound to have great holds or even increases in the second week, when even more people are off from school/work. Your weekends are also not hurt in any way.
If christmas is closer to or even on the weekend, you don't have the two full weeks of holidays anymore. Instead you have one big week, with some slightly boosted days before or after, while the weekends suffer as well. Beyond that, your best holiday situation comes quite a bit after the release has happened. It's much better to have a big holiday-effect right away, and use the astronomical numbers to further increase interest in the movie. After all, if something is breaking records all over the place, people are bound to notice.
I think a TFA-like schedule would have worked in favour of TLJ. It wouldn't have done anything about WOM or being a divisive movie or not, but it would have given bigger weekdays right away, boosting the total, giving the impression of everyone needing to see this, while also keeping the competition away. With christmas eve on Thursday, there is no way Jumanji would have started during the week either, and it certainly wouldn't have tried to start on the same weekend as TLJ, not with the kind of movie it is, which only leaves the weekend after. So you would have TLJ going with bigger numbers into the second weekend and nothing that could really attempt to steal its thunder until after the second weekend. Even with other movies starting there, you still have a weekend that gets boosted by christmas day, so that isn't going to hurt much at all.
It's basically the difference between having your strongest days while facing little competition or having a somewhat boosted first week followed by what should be your strongest days facing a movie that appeals to a similar audience.
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17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
TLJ forecast with Deadline's numbers:
Remainder of this week: 17.5M (554.5M Total)
Jan 5: 28.8M (6.3M weekdays, 589.6M Total)
Jan 12: 10.6M (5.3M weekdays, 605.5M Total)Jan 19: 5.6M (1.7M weekdays, 612.8M Total)
Jan 26: 3.2M (1.3M weekdays, 617.3M Total)
Feb 2: 1.9M (700k weekdays, 619.9M Total)
Final Total: 623M (2.83x)
Is this even hitting a 3x anymore? Next weekend will probably determine that. There are a lot of variables on Friday and Saturday, but I don't think it can get much higher than 32-33M.
The Jan 12 weekend is a holiday, it's not going to drop almost 2/3s on that one. TFA and Rogue One dropped somewhere between 20-25% for the 4-day weekend.
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2nd trend is up, I expected a drop to happen, and it did, though the rest either remained flat or went up:
#1 TLJ 875k
#2 Jumanji 300k
#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 290k
#4 PP3 210k
#5 Ferdinand 140k
#6 Coco 125k
#7 Paddington 2 90k
#8 Murder on the Orient Express 60k
#9 FjG3 40k
#10 Loving Vincent 25k
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35 minutes ago, smokeylarue said:
I think Disney has to be disappointed somewhat in TLJ gross (both domestic and worldwide). Worldwide, the franchise did not grow after TFA, and especially disappointing in Asia where huge box officed dollars are available. My totally without evidence guess is that bad WOM also cost the film. A lot of people did not like this movie. This should've been a guaranteed $700M+ domestic, $1.5 billion+ WW film easily, but it won't get there.
TFA put up $1b internationally without China, how exactly was the franchise supposed to grow from that?
Yes, technically asia would have allowed for some room to grow (while dropping everywhere else), but that would have depended on people catching on, something that isn't particularly likely when you are dealing with the 7th or 8th entry of very interconnected movies. This isn't like FF, where you can more or less ignore all the other movies and still understand it for the most part. With Star Wars, if you haven't seen the older ones, you miss a ton and not everything is clear.
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18 minutes ago, Barnack said:
Depends how much of Force Awaken 57M thursday happened before Midnight I suppose....
Well, the previews can't count for both days, now can they?
I thought about mentioning TFA's previews, but the whole thing was more of a joke anyway, so I didn't really bother
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30 minutes ago, Barnack said:
... and Sith normal best of the year type of performance, still made some records that didn't last long, was number one domestic but not worldwide, etc....
Actually, it still holds one record, biggest Thursday ever!
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1 minute ago, suibhnegeilt said:
I see this thought all over the place, but wasn't the prequel trilogy fairly conventional as far as blockbusters go? I know that TPM did very well, but the hype was far greater than the results--and I always assumed it was Lucas's demands on theaters that padded its final gross (it was required to be on summer screens for a long amount of time). But Clones and Sith were not these extraordinary performances. Clones was the third highest grossing film of 2002. Sith did better, but was #1 in a relatively weak year (2005). The following year it would have been easily bested by Pirates 2, and the previous year it would have been easily bested by Shrek 2.
Furthermore, none of these films ever made it to that "pop culture legend" status that other films of the time did. Lord of the Rings was far more impactful. Potter too. The Matrix made a much bigger impact than TPM did in 1999.
In other words, Star Wars already went back down to "conventional" blockbuster status with the three prequels. Force Awakens returned it to phenomenon status. Last Jedi could have easily fallen back to conventional status, but it clearly hasn't happened.
I think you are mixing two very different things there. Matrix stealing a bit of TPM's thunder in terms of WOM or special effects awards isn't the same as TPM being a conventional blockbuster in terms of box office. Some people seem to miss how huge that movie actually was. Attendence-wise that movie is estimated to be in the 85m range, which is quite a bit ahead of Avatar, Dark Knight, Jurassic World or The Avengers.
TFA may have been a bit bigger than TPM, but the effect is basically the same, the first movie of the trilogy was of enormous size. The sequels drop from that.
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Just now, Krissykins said:
I did say in my original post that it was an estimate and also that it was impossible to be exact.
I wasn’t tying to say I was exact. I thought that was pretty obvious from my post.
And all I said was that the whole idea is useless to begin with, because the method used by BOM is faulty to the extreme, even if only applied to the domestic market.
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2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
A drop worldwide of about 70m tickets.
I just did a $600m grosser with BOM est tickets. It’s impossible to be more exact due to overseas pricing.
Yes, I realised that right after I posted it, that's why I edited the post.
I don't think that it's really something that can be gauged in any way through box office numbers. There are just too many differences in price between countries. You'd probably would need to go throzugh the entire list on a case by case basis. Sometimes you would get lucky and get actual admission numbers, but for the most part it would be more of a guesswork.
BOM's ticket counter is really useless though. It just takes the average ticket price, without any consideration for the individual movie. Hence creating totally weird numbers for movies that are more expensive, especially when 3D is in play. TFA had a big 3D-share, Avatar an even larger one, those movies get really inflated ticket numbers using BOM's method.
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10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
I guess with Last Jedi it’s just strange because we’ve never had an underperformance conversation about a film posting numbers this big.
I think a big part of is when you realise if it ends up $600-700m less than the previous sequel and when you think of that in amounts of actual people who haven’t shown up for the sequel, it seems gigantic and hard to ignore. That’s what, 70 million people/tickets roughly?
Last Jedi is definitely a unique conversation.
You mean 70 million people who went to see it, or a drop of 70m?
The former could be somewhat close - maybe it's just in the 60s - the latter obviously not. TFA was likely somewhere in the 90m range when it comes to tickets sold, based on its share of 3D, IMAX and all that expensive stuff.
edit: oh, or were you talking worldwide?
In that case it is impossible to say, because prices obviously differ greatly everywhere.
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First trend is up, and it looks pretty good:
#1 TLJ 900k
#2 Jumanji 300k
#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 275k
#4 PP3 200k
#5 Ferdinand 140k
#6 Coco 115k
#7 Paddington 2 85k
#8 Murder on the Orient Express 60k
#9 FjG3 40k
#10 Loving Vincent 25k
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7 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
Domestic and overseas numbers are almost playing the same way. 446 million overseas ( updated ) and 444 million domestic ( if we include the 21.5 million from yesterday ).
I guess both will end the same way ( 640-680 million domestic and almost the same overseas or perhaps less ). This is rare for a blockbuster. Usually most of the money come from overseas markets, but Star Wars has always been a domestic moster.
You forget that there is China still coming up
If the domestic and current international markets end up even, China would boost the international side, even if it would just be by 40-50m.
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2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
So, Wednesday's number down? Rth said 22 million and this site says 21.5 million.
Rth said 22m sounds about right, he didn't say it would be exactly 22m. There is always a bit of deviance up or down, unless he gives numbers relatively late and/or is very specific.
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STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI | 712.4 M overseas ● 1332.5 M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by George Parr
Well, after last weekend Corpse wrote that TLJ is aiming for 9.5b Yen ($80-85m) with a good shot at 10b Yen. He hasn't given any new target since then, only stating that this weekend that just happened was bound to drop a lot, but that the weekdays afterwards would make up for it. Stating that Monday alone could do as much as the weekend, and that there will be raises throughout the week and the next weekend.
If I get it correctly, last week was where schools got off, but this week is new years holiday and the bank holiday, where businesses are closed.
The Hobbit had a 1.2m third weekend, posting a similar total as TLJ (4.43m), and it ended its run with a bit above 6.5m (the rest is coming from the next two releases). The Hobbit 2 came off a 1.07m weekend and added another 1.8m the rest of the way. Sure, 1.5m is the absolute low end, but I didn't exactly think that Rogue One would end up missing the 4m mark after the numbers it got during the holidays, yet somehow it did, so I just tried to set a low-end that would definately happen this time around. Besides, writing 6.25-6.5 would have looked stupid