hw64
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Posts posted by hw64
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14 minutes ago, yjs said:
but it spawns the idea that kids movies don't deserve that same artistic integrity in their narratives or aesthetics and are okay to be seen as a complete product.
There is literally nothing wrong with this.
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$150.8m through Monday as per Mojo
So that's around a $15.8m overseas Monday.
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1 hour ago, Daxtreme said:
Oh except, you know, being certified out of baumer's under 450 club.
Being certified out of the 600M+ rogue one club.
I'll also be right on the holiday legs, but that hasn't yet come to past...
Tell me, which clubs did you join?
So self-assured it's hilarious. You were completely wrong about the opening weekend - I saw you predicting $170m/$180m and you even kept clinging to that belief after the previews and opening day came in. Predicting a huge range of $450-$600m and being right is not an achievement, either, and I'll add that over $450m isn't even assured at this point, so you might not even be right on that front.
Unlike you, I'm not arrogant enough to claim that I'm definitely going to be right about Rogue One's multiplier - I'm very sure of it, but nothing is a certainty. Your self-assuredness will just make it more hilarious if Rogue One doesn't end up having typical holidays legs.
As for clubs, not interested.
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19 minutes ago, Rallax said:
Have you been correct about anything regarding R1 yet? Just curious.
I wasn't aware I'd been wrong about anything yet, or that I'd made any sort of concrete predictions (here) that even enabled me to be wrong.
Well, maybe a few. I said that the ratio between Australian opening weekend in AUD to US opening weekend in USD would increase for Rogue One from the 1:9.1 ratio that TFA had. Given the numbers we have now ($10m opening weekend in Aus = $15m AUD ish), that ratio is 15:155 = 1:10.3, so I was right.
I also said that its previews multiplier would be far less than Civil War's or BvS's. Rogue One has a 5.34 multiplier compared to BvS's 5.99 and Civil War's 7.16, and I was right there too. @Daxtreme, who liked your post, was seriously entertaining the possibility of a multiplier in the ballpark of those two, so he's got not legs to stand on. As far as I can tell he hasn't gotten anything right in the past few weeks.
In general, if I'm making predictions, it's not going to be on here though, so there's not much I've said concretely.
What have you been correct about in the past two weeks?
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5 minutes ago, Heretic said:
One important thing to mention is that the vast majority of schools are still in. Most break up for Christmas holidays on Wednesday or Thursday, so weekdays won't be particularly strong until then, just business as normal.
ALSO. To avoid panic next weekend when drops are huge, cinemas are closed on Christmas Day in the UK, and Christmas Eve showings end in the evening compared to late at night, so expect some massive drops. Rogue One for example is going to drop at LEAST 65-70% as it's essentially going from a 4-day weekend to a 1.75 day weekend. It'll recover after that and probably increase the following weekend.
All of this was the same for TFA last year though, so if we're making comparisons between the two it should be fine.
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1 minute ago, SWXII said:
I guarantee it won many fans and has had a year in the secondary market to win many more. I think it is a mystery how it will perform. I am optimistic.
Have you done any analysis on this - for example, looking at Chinese social media sites, looking at buzz, reviews, etc.?
Or is this baseless speculation from a fanboy?
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5 minutes ago, Agafin said:
That's not true. TFA had 4 and 5 days OW in France, Germany ans Spain ans y et got multis over 4 in all those countries. In Italy and The UK, it had 5 and 4 day OW respectively and ended up with 3.7-3.5 multis.
European markets rypically have better legs than DOM, especially with holidays.
And with that reasoning last year, you predicted something like $1.2-$1.3b as the floor for TFA's gross overseas (without China!).
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7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Donnie Yen might help offset that a bit - unlike in Russia
Yeah, but the film itself is the big thing. If they don't connect with the story like they didn't with TFA, Donnie Yen is not going to be much of a factor. It'll be a "Donnie Yen was great, but the film was bad - don't bother" kind of thing. The Chinese have plenty of Donnie Yen elsewhere (including in xXx: Return of Xander Cage which might be getting a January 2017 release date near to Rogue One's), so it's not like they're going to sit through what they think is a bad film just to see his character.
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7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
How big will the sequel to Journey To The West be in China? $500M+?
Not quite that high. Somewhere around $350-$400m probably.
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1 minute ago, SWXII said:
China might surprise now that Star Wars is more well known since Episode 7.
TFA was very poorly-received in China. A lot more people know Star Wars now, sure, but a lot more people think it's shit.
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Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:
How much between the two is expected total? $200M+?
It's possible that the two combined won't even break $100m.
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1 minute ago, SteveJaros said:
That OS number for R1 looks kind of skimpy compared to the DOM performance. Is it missing some big markets like China or Japan?
If the OS number just matches its DOM, then R1 probably doesn't hit $1B WW.
It's missing China, but not Japan. The only real "major" market it's missing is South Korea, which is insignificant given TFA's opening weekend of $6.7m and its reception there. Rogue One would have probably made around $3m opening weekend in SK.
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8 minutes ago, Grand Moff said:
Never underestimate the power of Star Wars.
Never underestimate the power of "reality".
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3 minutes ago, 75live said:
nice OW
big overall number too with it being #12 all time without China
It's #12 domestically. Worldwide it's #21.
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Just now, Grand Moff said:
?
Usually I wouldn't say this, but you are simply wrong.
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Just now, Grand Moff said:
Rogue One.
Jesus.
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49 minutes ago, Grand Moff said:
I think we will do 1.6 billion worldwide.
Erm, are you talking about Episode 8 or Rogue One?
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2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:
That was their estimate from last night I believe.
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3 minutes ago, Grand Moff said:
It seems obvious from the overwhelmingly positive feedback that it will have legs. I could see it staying in the top 5 into late May at this rate.
lol
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3 minutes ago, eXtacy said:
Hard to see where these sub 150m projections come from
Assumedly from models that are way more complicated than just spitting out two numbers at random.
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36 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:
That remains to be seen. Your sample size is 0 if RO and TFA are immune. There aren't any other big December openers that have summer legs.
Not big enough
You're totally entitled to your opinion though. But I'm done arguing because you just don't have the data size to back it up.
If you forever confine yourself to thinking within the realms of things that have happened in the past then you're never going to make any good estimates. Half the big blockbusters released over the past year were hugely surprising in some aspect or another: TFA's huge opening in December (which I'm sure you predicted to be high, by the way, despite the similar lack of evidence as with this), BvS's historically bad multiplier, American Sniper's performance in January, F7's performance in China, etc. If you don't think outside the box sometimes then you're never going to get anything right.
Good luck with your predictions.
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1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:
I'm listening very well. The problem with your reasoning and your "effect" is that the only movies that it seems to matter and apply to, are immune. Therefore, what use is there for your "effect" if it doesn't apply to any relevant movie before 2020?
Anyway, the whole idea behind the discussion is that you're basically saying holidays don't guarantee legs for normal big openers, and I'm saying (as well as many others) that it does.
We'll see about that very soon!
You don't understand at all what I'm saying. The effect is most of the reason for large multipliers in December. The fact that the effect doesn't apply to TFA and probably doesn't apply to Rogue One means that they'll have summer-esque multipliers.
The December effect (low opening and similar total gross which leads to a much better multiplier) is seen in franchises like Mission Impossible as I mentioned before, and others. The absence of it is the whole point.
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1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:
So Ep.7 would have opened to $312M in the summer, with a 3x multi that gets it to $936M
Got it
Actually, that would have been awesome
You're not listening. I said TFA was immune from the December opening weekend lowering effect. It would have opened to around the same (probably slightly but insignificantly more), would have had a slightly lower multiplier due to lack of holidays and maybe due to competition (I doubt competition would have really had an effect on TFA in any case, given how huge it was and its WOM), and it would have grossed a bit less than in December.
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5 minutes ago, Porthos said:
post
Yes, but it's not consistent with reality. Mission Impossible is a very consistent series at the box office (see here) - all movies made more or less $200m domestically total (except 3, but that was during Cruise's controversial scientology/crazy period). Ghost Protocol opened in December 2011 and made $209m. Rogue Nation opened at the end of July and made $195m. That discrepancy you see is probably mostly down to competition and the holidays, and its nowhere near the ridiculous hundreds of millions more that some people think December movies should make. It's 10%, and I think that's about right. A December movie will make less than 10% more than if it was released in the summer.
There are other examples of this, too.
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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW
in International Box Office
Posted
Doesn't seem particularly likely for any sort of WW battle between RO and CW given the numbers we've seen so far.
And China is likely to fall below $100m, yeah.