hw64
-
Posts
742 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by hw64
-
-
11 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
do you agree?
The domestic prediction I agree with even if a lot of people here don't, but the overseas and China grosses are way too low.
For me, it's a $650-$720m global opening if COVID hesistancy in China doesn't affect the opening weekend too much (big question mark at the moment).
-
Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
China will be at least $50M more than that. No clue about openings in any other OS market though.Deadline are awful at predicting overseas openings. The $250m overseas outside of China is a big lowball as well.
-
https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/
From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, dignam said:
Dont know why some are complaining, so far the ratings on both RT/MC look great. 👍
As we've seen from some of the posts over the past hour or so, there are a lot of people absolutely waiting to pounce on any perceived sign of weakness from this movie to affirm their own deep-seated beliefs.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, JustLurking said:
It's not really that wise to equip your servers to handle massive demand for like 2 hours a month into little demand all other times of the year.
Cloud scalability is hardly a foreign concept nowadays -- RT seemingly just doesn't care.
-
Vultures coming in to feast prematurely as usual.
-
2
-
-
Just now, IronJimbo said:
yeah... i dont feel so good 🤮
What happened to that endless well of confidence about Avatar 2 Jimbo? Chin up, now's not the time to falter!
-
1
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, Bruce said:
For now Douban rating is like Hater vs Fans War right now but Avatar performence is still incredible,like doing 9.5 in Maoyan
I thought this might be the case. A brigaded early rating wouldn't surprise me.
-
30 minutes ago, Torontofan said:
It will be funny that this film could do 2 billion dollars WW and some will label it a dissapoinmtnet somehow.
It would be an objective financial success but yet still a disappointment, and that's not a contradiction. A financially successful movie can still be a disappointment if the movie underperforms reasonable expectations of what it could have achieved — people really need to reconcile that idea with themselves. Case in point: Batman v. Superman was financially successful, but nobody would ever call that movie's box office performance anything other than a big disappointment.
$2 billion would be barely over half the relative success of the original Avatar, coming from the director who's made the two biggest movies of the past 40 years at least — one of which is arguably the biggest movie of all time — back to back. Of course it'd be disappointing — Avatar 2 can realistically achieve much, much more than just $2b.
-
2
-
-
5 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:
What y'all think . Will it break $600m for OW Worldwide? Will it top Infinity War ?
For me, it tops Infinity War and falls between $650m and $720m or so.
-
13 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
so IW is safe
Definitely not, in my opinion - it's quite a conservative prediction overseas depends on how things play out in China. IW easily in danger here.
-
1
-
2
-
-
7 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
Did out friend charlie just bring down his ow prediction by like 200 million or is he ignoring one of china or domestic?
This is an international prediction, so everywhere but domestic.
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, Verrows said:
This will have a strong internal multi and good legs. No doubt. But this isn't 2012. We will not see a $200M opening off of $18m-$20M previews. If we were living in that reality then even TGM - the long of unexpected WoM monsters - would have had a much bigger opening than it did. Instead, it legged it out, which most of us expect Avatar to as well.
I don't think that Avatar 2 is getting close to a $200m opening weekend, but I don't agree at all that TG:M not having a bigger opening precludes Avatar 2 from having a very high IM — they're very different films.
7 minutes ago, Verrows said:I do feel you though. It probably feels like some of us are throwing a wet blanket over something really exciting. At the end of the day though I think our more experienced trackers would just rather give it to people straight.
That's not it at all — far from being dampened by them, I just simply don't agree with some of the conclusions that are being thrown around. I'd only be dampened by them if I believed them to be unequivocally 100% correct, which I don't (and nobody should, in my opinion).
-
1
-
-
31 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
But he's right, things are tightening up this past few days and while i do think M37 read of the data is overly pessimistic to use some of the lower predictions on tracking thread, the data is still suggesting some limitations on how high this can go and everyone agreed on that.
From the lenghty runtime, the limitations of premium screens, the holidays right after the opening.... There's several reasons that could depressing the OW a bit.
Which is all absolutely fine, but just let people make up their own minds on the data available to them, rather than suggesting that they mold their predictions to someone else's interpretation/extrapolation of the data. That's the only part I take issue with.
-
1
-
-
13 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
You, of all people, complaining to someone else about "lording over people's predictions" is a bit laughable. You've knocked other peoples thoughts and expectations left and right when they haven't fit in with yours. Mine is merely a suggestion based on experience. Time is running out for there to be much more volatility in OW, and quite frankly a $30M range is enough room.
I've definitely been critical of some predictions, sure, perhaps even dismissively so on a couple of occasions over the past few days for which I'd apologise to those affected, but there's a big difference between being critical and essentially softly suggesting that everyone molds their predictions to a range that you've deemed to be appropriate.
Some humility is needed here. The tracking thread is incredible, but the data is still largely limited to Thursday previews, and it tells us very little about how backloaded the movie is going to be over its opening weekend or how heavy the walk-ups will be. If any movie is likely to behave unusually and break precedent, it is Avatar 2, so it's simply unwise to rely on the idea that Avatar 2 will behave within established parameters in terms of backloading/walk-ups.
-
2
-
-
33 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
I think it would be best for everyone to hone in your OW expectations between $140-170M ($18-20M previews x 7.5-8.5 IM). Could it potentially be higher than that? It could, sure but at this point though I'd bet hard money it falls in that range.
You also had the re-release at under $10m domestically prior to release, though.
I don't think it's necessary, nor is it anyone's place really, to try and lord over people's predictions like this, especially for such a volatile release. There's still plenty of plausible opening weekend range outside of $140-$170m that could easily come to pass. I'm personally sticking at $175-$180m.
-
44 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:
If the initial prediction was based on this movie being especially backloaded and walkup-heavy, it would be rational to adjust based on the last couple of days as it hasn't really shown the signs one would expect from a backloaded film.
I think the backloading that everyone's expecting is backloading across the opening weekend itself (i.e. an incredible previews multiplier), not backloading in the pace of the presales (and Thursday night preview presales at that).
The pace of the Thursday preview presales has very little to do with backloading across the opening weekend, and similarly little to do with walkups.
And I'd also point out that the post I was referring to had a near-20% adjustment in opening weekend predictions based on a few days of presales data, which I think is absolutely insane generally.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
Final week presales are not taking off in any major markets. USA, China, SK and Germany are all average or below average compared to other major blockbusters. With that, I’m revising my OW prediction down to $153-158M.That's a kneejerk if I ever saw one. A day or two of presales data from a few select markets, some of which I'm not sure is being interpreted correctly, isn't anywhere near sufficient to tell us where this is headed — rationally, you'd need at least a few more days of data before making any adjustments, and even then any adjustments would need to be well-measured. One or two days is not a trend.
Now you're very likely to have to adjust back up again by the end of the week, when you could have instead stuck and made a potentially smaller correction if necessary over the next few days.
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
so 850 needed for 3 billion domestic is what youre saying?
Really all depends on China. $750 should be enough, but even $700m domestic is potentially sufficient if China does very well (circa $700m). I would say $650, but such a relative domestic underperformance would make me question if there was something intrinsically about the film that'd make it play worse than expected everywhere, not just domestically.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Bruce said:
when will the RT and CS open?
Tuesday.
-
23 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
It's likely more of an indication of the lack of available seats. While total theaters opened are now up to 75%, aren't theaters operating at reduced capacity (50-75% in most cases)? That would bring the actual seat count available down to 45-55% of full capacity.
The Avatar re-release in China behaved very similarly, and there are 150,000 screenings of Avatar 2 on opening Friday. No other re-release in 2021 behaved similarly to the Avatar re-release, nor have I see any other movie behave similarly to how Avatar 2 is behaving recently. I don't think this has anything significantly to do with seating capacity at all, it's far more just Avatar's naturally backloaded nature showing up again.
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
But it doesnt happen often, which was the point i was making. And if the reviews and reactions are true, its an amazing cinema experience, something TLJ didnt have.
Sure it's not likely, I was just answering your question on whether it'd even happened before, which it indeed has.
-
1 minute ago, stuart360 said:
I mean has there been any Christmas released blockbuster film that got less than 3x legs?
The Last Jedi: $450m opening (without China) to $1,290m final (without China), so 2.87x legs. And that's with a way smaller global opening than Avatar 2 will have.
I'm playing devil's advocate a bit here, of course, as I'm on the $3b train and I think Avatar 2 will have around a 4x multiplier off of its global opening weekend, but it is theoretically possible to have an under 3x global multiplier at Christmas, yes.
-
31 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
The absolute I was reffering to was
"At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73"
Using your $700m Domestic, then going with a more reasonable OS-C of $1400m, it would only need $550m from China to get up to 26/74
I didn't say that, I said:
57 minutes ago, hw64 said:At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73 or very slightly better (24/76, 25/75)
I might have been slightly overzealous on this claim — with a relative domestic underperformance, 23/77 is possible, maybe 22/78 at a stretch, but I stand by what I said about 20/80. It's extremely unlikely even with a domestic underperformance, and if you're not looking at a domestic underperformance — if you're looking at $800m+ domestically — then anywhere close to 20/80 is effectively impossible.
-
1
-
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
in International Box Office
Posted
Is that based on a feeling or have you seen similar data for previous releases? Because we know Avatar 2 have been behaving in a very backloaded fashion in a lot of overseas markets, and it's not at all out of the realm of possibility that this is another sign of that kind of backloading.