hw64
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Posts posted by hw64
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Also agree with the idea that a sub-50% drop isn't anywhere near as hard as some people are suggesting.
Christmas Eve on Saturday drops the gross for that day by about half, and if we weight each day as contributing the same amount to the weekend, that's half of a third i.e. a 1/6 = 16.7% drop over what the weekend would otherwise have been. Saturday is actually the biggest day, so let's call that 20%.
Putting aside calendar issues, then, if you expect that Avatar 2 would drop 35% in a normal second weekend and make 65% of its first weekend gross, as a result of the calendar configuration its actual second weekend would be 0.65 * 0.8 = 52% of its first weekend gross, i.e. a 48% drop.
A natural 35% drop is far from unachievable, especially considering that the previews for Avatar 2 will make up probably around 1/8th or so (12.5%) of the opening weekend gross, which is far less than most blockbusters that we're comparing it to — especially Rogue One, whose $29m previews make up nearly 1/5th of its $155m opening weekend gross. Maverick managed a 28.9% drop off of a slightly lower weekend, and that was coming off of a boosted holiday first weekend and its previews of $19.3m made up 15% of its opening weekend, which is probably higher than the same for Avatar 2.
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7 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:
Am I looking at it right? Is Avatar 2 insanely backloaded for the weekend. I mean it should be, just surprised to see it happening real-time.
This happened with the re-release of Avatar in China last year and it happened quite a bit with the global re-release a few months ago, too. There's definitely significant backloading — Saturday and Sunday are going to be very strong for this movie relative to Friday and especially Thursday.
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13 minutes ago, Macleod said:
Source interview?
This month's Empire Magazine where a bunch of Hollywood A-listers pose questions to Cameron.
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13 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:
Hmm ww 3 day opening coming for Avatar 2 of 550-600+ mil?
More. Could go up to mid-$700s, likely to be the second biggest global opening ever.
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1 hour ago, Macleod said:
Well, WETA in NewZealand did work on Amazon's LOTR, as well, so yeah, I'm sure he's supporting/watching his fellow crew's work a bit...
But yeah, if he has the time to do that, Mr. Cameron... Where is THE ABYSS (or TITANIC, or even TRUE LIES) on 4K disc??? 😐😁
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17 hours ago, Purple Minion said:
First estimates for Avatar 2 by MxTaquilla @ Twitter:
[OW: 320M lc, Total: 1,050M lc.]
That would be $16.5M OW and $54.2M total (USD) at today's ER.
I don't want to disrespect the local experts but at current ticket prices, that would only be around 30% more tickets sold than the original Avatar, and less than the likes of The Fate of the Furious and Captain America: Civil War (I know superhero movies are especially popular in Mexico, but come on — Avatar was a top 4 all-time ticket seller in Mexico at the time of its release, and the highest-grossing LC film of all time).
I have it significantly higher — my starting point is 1.3b LC, and I think even that's probably a bit conservative.
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5 minutes ago, Nero said:
That's accumulated over the years no?
Yes, but rapidly increasing now.
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20 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
So does anyone still think A2 is going to make less than 2 billion worldwide now?
With it tracking at $150m-$200m opening weekend right now domestically, and with a china release confirmed. I think it's looking crazy unlikely to go under $2b even entirely from a logical non-view fan view.
If you look on reddit you'll find people still debating whether or not it's going to make $1 billion.
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Gotta say, the real-time data always makes it very interesting to follow a run in China, and after months and months of speculation about "will it or won't it" and the current state of the market, there's nothing much to lose here now that we've got a confirmed date, so this going to be a very fun one to follow.
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40 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:
Maybe but here's my thinking.
Avatar's OS total minus China and Russia ~$1.76B OS.Between France, Germany, UK, Spain and Italy I'm modeling a $300-350M combined loss for A2.
That is rough, man. My high-end estimate for the loss in the Europe big 5 is about $260m based on 80% of Avatar's ticket sales in the UK and Germany, 85% in France, and 75% in Italy and Spain, and my low-end is only around a $160-$170m loss. I've even gone pretty damn conservative on the ATPs - in LC, 10 in the UK, 12 in Germany, 9.5 in France, 8 in Italy and 7 in Spain. I guess we disagree quite a bit on what level of ticket sales we're expecting from Avatar 2.
40 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:The rest of the EMEA (as per Box Office Mojo) will lose another $100-120M or so.
Japan and Australia will drop at least $100M combined.
LATAM should be roughly flat.
APAC minus the countries mentioned above will increase by about $100-125M overall (this includes India).All in all, this leaves the OS-C-R market right in the $1.3-1.35B range.
To compare:
I'm not sure what territories EMEA covers exactly, but in Europe generally outside of the big 5 above, my low-end performance/high-end loss is about $70m.
My high-end Japan-Australia loss is around $115-$125m, so I'm a bit higher than you there, at least on the low end of performance.
The major LATAM countries I've modelled I'm seeing a $20m increase on the low-end.
And APAC I think I'm generally in agreement with you, again on the low end of my performance estimates.
That's about $1.5b adding up all my low-ends including India at 500 Cr, so if India is doing around 600 Cr or so, I'd expect $1.6b+. I've been pretty conservative on all my ATPs and exchange rates, too. In fact, having had a look, my Europe estimates are based off of dollar-euro parity whereas it's now about 1.03 dollars in a euro, so those could stand to go up.
Anyway, nice to compare workings.
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4 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:
That would be about 580 crore at current exchange rates. Seems like a good target. I'm hoping for more like 700 though.
I'm also gunning for about 600 Cr - more would be great, though.
Aren't your overseas predictions quite low, though?
On 11/18/2022 at 6:20 PM, Toruk Makto XXR said:Tickets go on sale Monday and I'm very curious to see what the initial demand looks like. I'm guessing it'll be somewhere between JWD and The Batman. As of today I'm still sticking with roughly the following numbers...
$160M DOM OW$675M DOM Total
$1100 - 1400M OS-C-R$700-900M China (assuming no COVID restrictions)
How can you be on board with Avatar 2 targetting 580 Cr in India and still have it only making $1.1-$1.4b OS-C-R?
If it's making that much in India then I've personally got it at $1.6, $1.7b+.
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3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
You know what that means. You are telling yourself it doesn't mean that but it does. RIP Avatar.
It's over avatarbros... again....
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3 minutes ago, shachi86 said:
Would be so funny if it did though!
It's unironically hilarious how desperate you are with your concern trolling that you'd even entertain the remote possibility of Avatar 2 opening to something as low as $70m.
You're an absolute vulture desperate for something to cling onto, and you'll probably disappear as soon as you're unable to spin this narrative of failure, which isn't rooted in any sort of reality. You're going to have a rude awakening in 25 days, friend.
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10 minutes ago, shachi86 said:
Had a quick glance, and this is what the IMAX at Leicester Square London currently looks like for the 7PM showing on opening day of Avatar 2:
This, by the way, is the only showing on opening day that has more than 20 seats sold. For comparison at the same point (first day of tickets sales, that is) Star Wars 9 had sold out its opening day showings, and both Avengers 4 and Star Wars 7 had almost sold out their opening weekends at the same screen.
At £121m, Star Wars 7 is still the highest grossing movie in the UK. The movie was showing 24/7 for opening weekend at Leicester Square. (Yes, there were screenings at like 3:30AM that were sold out!)
BUCKLE IN
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Is it time to buckle in for the concern trolling about Avatar 2's relatively low presales, or will they be good enough to assuage the hand-wringing do we think?
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10 minutes ago, M37 said:
Whoo boy. I’m not going to claim Avatwo is going to “flop”/be in the red, as it’s gonna make billions worldwide, but …
Setting the expectations bar that high, with the first in a planned set of sequels, where the usual pattern is diminishing returns as the series progresses, does make me wonder about budget concerns down the road
The budget costs are frontloaded. The vast majority of the R&D for the sequels have been done already; everything's mapped out in terms of story, the technology is there, etc. etc. And I think when Cameron is referring to a $2b break-even point, he's including the full cost of both Avatar 2 and 3 in that assessment.
The latter sequels should be far less expensive on an individual level than Avatar 2, and certainly far less expensive than the combined cost of Avatars 2 and 3, so regardless of whether there are going to be diminishing returns (debatable), I don't think there's any reason at all to be concerned about budget issues.
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Tickets are up at Regal.
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Hopefully things will be better now...
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We'll be back to proper midnights by 2025.
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19 minutes ago, Nero said:
Just because ticket prices have increased doesn't automatically guarantee that it'll outgross more than previous one. Look at recent MCU movies couldn't cross 200 mark on OW even with such high ticket prices.
Yes, correct, but it makes it significantly easier. This is my point.
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10 minutes ago, Nero said:
That won't matter.
I had to laugh at this response. What do you mean "that won't matter"? Avatar 2 will have around 40% higher ticket prices than Avatar domestically, and this is an extremely significant factor in detemining box office gross that the other sequels you cite simply did not have over their predecessors. If Avatar 2 sells around 70% of the tickets as Avatar, it will make around the same amount in dollar gross; if it sells the same amount of tickets, it will make 40% more. These are unavoidable facts.
Your reply is essentially the intellectual equivalent of putting your fingers in your ears and saying 'lalalala I can't hear you!!!'
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4 minutes ago, Nero said:
There's a pattern here. All the big movies which broke records or were cultural phenomenon like BP, Avengers, Jurassic World, TFA their immediate sequels grossed less than their respective predecessors. It's kinda hard to top it unless it's IW to Endgame situation where endgame was culmination of the MCU.
How many of those sequels came 13 years after their predecessor and had a 40%+ higher average ticket price across their run?
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11 minutes ago, M37 said:
No, its really not - TGM was a nostalgia hit, more similar to Jurassic World (another where did that come from OW and total). But that nostalgia sweet spot is ~20-25 years, not 13, which is basically near the bottom of the U curve of popularity
Relatively little of Top Gun: Maverick's success was due to the pure nostalgia element. That might have gotten it its initial success out of the gate, but it was the quality of the movie itself as an experience and the resultant word of mouth that carried it to the heights that it reached, not the nostalgia element.
I don't think Avatar 2 will be much of a nostalgia hit in the traditional sense, and it doesn't need to be, either: it just needs to be a good movie which gives people a great cinematic experience, which is a near-certainty. The only "nostalgia" that will come into play is not going to be for characters or brand, but for the cinematic experience that Avatar offered audiences.
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Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by hw64
It's not like movies were making 20x their opening weekend regularly in 1997, or 10x in 2009 — Titanic and Avatar both had objectively huge legs for really any time period in cinematic history, but moreover their legs were extreme outliers for the time periods in which they were released.
I don't think anybody's expecting Avatar 2 to match Titanic or Avatar's legs — things have changed, as was the case between Titanic and Avatar — but there's certainly still plenty of room for big outlier performances in terms of legs as Maverick showed earlier this year. It's rare, but not impossible.