Jump to content

hw64

Free Account+
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    742

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by hw64

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

    I mean I wouldn't use absolutes when China is play, which is why I'm focusing on domestic vs OS-C-R

     

    I'm very confident about it.

     

    If you're looking at 20/80 then you need both a relative domestic underperformance (~$700m), $1.7b+ OS-C (pretty much an Avatar-equivalent performance) and $900m+ in China, which is completely out of the question not only because of the market conditions, but also because it would require Avatar 2 to significantly exceed The Battle at Lake Changjin in local currency gross.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    29 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

    I actually wouldnt be surprised if the domestic/international split is even wider for this release, something like 20/80 split.

     

    It won't be — not anywhere even remotely close, exchange rates completely preclude that possibility. At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73 or very slightly better (24/76, 25/75), but at worst it's going to be 30/70 or so.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Dragoncaine said:

    Haha yeah, Deadline is not exactly a precise calculator for incoming grosses, but I thought it was a cool blurb to show that they're considering the possibility. Agreed with XXR that it would need some insane walkups. I'm still banking on $180-190m

     

    Just for clarification so nobody is confused by this, when Deadline says up to $200m I'm almost certain they're just referring back to their original projection article here where they say "rival [studios] are bullish at $200m."

    • Thanks 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Georgy P said:

    Let's assume that the trend continues, then projections will go up by 10% more by the premiere. That's 730-950 range. 50M more and we're in the billies territory.

     

    Highly doubt they're going to go up by 10% again. The reactions, reviews, anticipated audience reception, presales etc. will have largely been priced into their model at this point — they've been the reason for these increases.

     

    That's not to say that the model is necessarily going to reflect reality, of course, but I just don't think it's going to increase much from here.

    • Like 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    1 hour ago, Shanks said:

     

    I said with current situation & Trends, these trends are how they are selling tickets in those markets.  I never said anything about Theoretical Max, no? 

     

    I did make one theoretical Max chart in Avatar OS thread but not here. @LPLC even linked it today in latest post. With Today's WR the theoretical max should be something like that:

     

      Reveal hidden contents

     

     

    This is generally a very good analysis and your maximum figures agree remarkably well with my own.

     

    You're a touch higher than my own "maximums" (which have been calculated conservatively, so probably not actual maximums) in dollar gross in a lot of the major European and Asian markets, especially in Japan where you've got a maximum of ¥25b or $184m which would be way above the original Avatar in admissions (my "maximum" in Japan is only just over half of that). And yet, your maximum OS-C figure of $1.71b is actually lower than my own, so I've been trying to figure out where the big discrepancy is, especially in view of your huge Japan figure.

     

    And then I saw your Oceania and Europe "rest" figure of €70 or $73.2m. That is grossly low, not only in general but particularly relative to all of your other figures. I'm not even modelling all European countries, and the ones that I am modelling which fall into your European "rest" — Romania, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, Belgium, Austria, Greece, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Hungary — add up to about $135m, and that's without adding in any further minor markets in Oceania and Europe of which there are quite a few. My actual maximum in European "rest" would very likely be $150m+.

     

    I haven't done a deep dive into the rest of the figures, but that seems to me to be the most glaring issue here.

    • Like 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, NCsoft said:

    My preferred way of adjusting gross is really  just go by (gross/average ticket price of year of release)*(average ticket price of current year), doesn't give us data on real admission, but admission relative to a average ticket of that year based on film's gross, gives proper advantage to PLF ticket premiums.

    I think even calculating that way, TFA domestically is like $100M ahead of Avatar, Avatar probably has slight advantage over Endgame; Avatar is luckier in the sense that it got to claim domestic crown for 6 years, Endgame always be in the shadow of TFA...

     

    That's a perfectly valid way of measuring overall success and gives credit to a movie for being able to sustain ticket sales at higher ticket prices than the movies released directly around it (which ticket sales comparisons don't), and it does that while also mostly accounting for general ticket price inflation.

     

    I personally don't care for it — I'm not particularly interested in a movie's ability to generate revenue and I'm more interested in a movie's popularity with audiences, which is why ticket sales is my measure of choice.

     

    As I say, both are perfectly valid measures, the only problem is when someone tries to claim that one or the other is the objectively right way to measure success.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    19 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

     

    I'm a little confused with this post. I'm talking box office not ticket sales.


    If Avatar 2 sells 100% 3D for example, and TFA sold 100% 2D for example. You can't adjust TFA by inflation using Avatar 2's average ticket price. It's an error.

     

    If you're talking adjusted box office, then you're talking ticket sales.

     

    And that's not an error — adjusting box office gross by normalizing two movies' ticket prices gives you a figure that's directly proportional to ticket sales, which is the most direct measure of the popularity of a movie.

     

    I know exactly what you're getting at here Jimbo, and there's definitely an argument to be made that a movie that sells tickets at a higher price (at least insofar as that higher price isn't simply a result of just the general inflation of movie ticket prices) is a better financial product than a movie that sells tickets at a lower price, but it really depends on what you're interested in here, because a movie's ability to generate revenue and a movie's popularity are both valid measures of success.

     

    But honestly, though. Likely $3b+ worldwide, highest grossing film of all time three times in a row, can you really ask for more? Going after The Force Awakens domestically in adjusted success (however you want to adjust it) seems a bit greedy. Avatar 2 doesn't need to (and can't) break every record.

    • Like 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

    hard to say.

    Isn't it trolling to adjust TFA using Avatar 2 average ticket prices. When Avatar 2 will be selling a bigger percentage 3D and PLFs. Please don't tell me all the adjusted figures online do garbage like this and don't account for much.

     

    You have to give The Force Awakens the win here, because it's the reality — The Force Awakens sold significantly more tickets (circa-90m range) than Avatar 2 will sell, and Avatar will almost certainly never be as big a franchise domestically as Star Wars was at its peak. You've got to give the respect where it's due.

     

    If you want to flaunt a Jim win, then you can always hold onto the fact that Titanic sold significantly more tickets domestically in its initial theatrical run than any Star Wars movie except A New Hope, and significantly more tickets than even A New Hope in its initial theatrical run. And that Avatar itself, despite its relative domestic weakness, is very nearly on par with The Phantom Menace, one of the most hyped movies of all time, in ticket sales domestically.

    • Like 3

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

    3bil is 100% possible. The problem i see is that best case scenario has the film around 2bil worldwide after that first month, it then needs another billion to come with competition for screens and peoples money, and no holiday days left to help.

     

    That's definitely not best-case. Avatar 2 is very likely going well above $1.5b before the end of the year in only 18 days and 2 full weekends plus the first two days of the third; in a month (up to and including the full fifth weekend), it could well be in the low-to-mid $2bs and closing in on $2.5b.

     

    And even then, that only takes us to the 15th of January, and as far as I'm aware there's still no real competition at that point up until early February.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Avatar Research said:

    Hey Everyone, I have just got back from the London Premiere I will post my ticket as proof. I have to say it is the best sequel I have seen since TDK. It blows all expectations out of the water. 

     

    My video project has grown much bigger since I last posted and a much larger youtuber called Internet Historian contacted me about working on the history of Avatar Haters so it will have to wait. 

     

    Thank you all for the continued support and information. @hw64 and @IronJimbo I believe you will be vindicated. Have a great day! 

    vdPxiEN.png

     

     

    Thanks for the report, based historian. Happy for you that you got to see the film, and glad you loved it!

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept