YM!

No. Zootopia had no family competition until The Jungle Book which was mid April on it’s seventh week which had a 40%+ drop. Also there was no family films at all since Kung Fu Panda which did ~140m iirc. Onward faces Mulan on its fourth week, Peter Rabbit 2 on its fifth and Trolls 2 on its seventh. A benefit is Easter weekend is on the sixth to offset a drop. That said, family films take theater space which is something we all know, take Boss Baby which fell nearly 50% on its second weekend due to Smurfs which did sub 15m OW, Lego Batman’s late legs collasped due to the one-two-Three punch of Beast, Boss Baby and Smurfs back to back. It is also is after Sonic, which at the very minimum I’m expecting 150M, more likely 180-200M Granted it won’t effect Onward’s second weekend or third weekend which if as long as it keeps the Pixar quality, I wouldn’t expect drops under 35% for those two weekends but I do think the films after it will hamper late legs a bit due to space. That said I don’t see under a 3.5x multiple for Onward, especially since I’m guessing both Mulan and Trolls want 4,000+ theaters and Rabbit 2 likely at 3,500 theaters

I mean Easter is in mid April, and having a family movie from March 27th to April 17th almost every other week, is still theaters and screens loss. That’s like box office 101.

Onward: 50m/185m Mulan: 90m/265m (feels like Aladdin underpredictions all over again) Widow: 130m/325m Artemis Fowl: 15m/50m Soul: 95m/365m Jungle Cruise: 35m/115m Ivan: 20m/75m Eternals: 150m/425m Raya: 75m (five day)/250m (don’t get the low DOM for this one either, December is weak and nothing else family wise in the Nov-Dec timeframe except for maybe Tom and Jerry is doing over 100M+ DOM) $2.055B DOM

I agree to an extent, thinking around 4-4.5x with good WOM, there’s also a lot of family competition from Mulan, Peter Rabbit and Trolls which may impact late legs.

I can see Venom 2 getting there with Morbius and Machines doing in the 150M range.

No, no it’s not. Especially when films like Ant Man 3 and Blade are coming out. Not all MCU films will do $1B and that’s okay.

Even for bigger MCU films like Strange 2, 900M WW is still fucking excellent, how many sequels increase nowadays? As long as you’re not Avengers or something that over performed like crazy like Panther/Marvel, a sub 1B WW total isn’t the end of the world or a disappointment. Hell, I have may have SM3 falling at 385M/1.1B WW which is essentially flat and it’s still a extraordinary success.

It’s filming over the summer.

Okay tell that to me for Ant Man 3, and Blade. Both of which imho likely will be around 800m WW. Those two which likely will have smaller budgets are failures then. Look I think all of Phase 4 films will reach $1B, the only real question mark is Black Widow cause China and maybe Strange 2 cause I’m not sure how high it’ll jump. But I don’t think everything MCU needs to be $1B in order to be a success. Yes, the past two years has been a record high for the MCU (5 out of 6 films all doing 1B+ WW is damn impressive to say that least) and they’ll likely continue that high for the next few years, but not everything is a lock.

Agreed easily, Indy 5 seems like an easy target to miss it then JW3. I’m expecting around $375M-$420M (I thought FFH did 400M+, my bad I thought it did more) but I’m thinking SM3 likely stays flat due to direct competition for its main demographics.

That’s not even a real movie, It’s 1917 Little Bad Boys for Parasite Cats of Prey in Disguise : Rise of the Next Fantasy Knives Hedgehog II

That’s your fault for unrealistic expectations if you think that when 5 of the 11 Phase 3 haven’t done over $900M, and an additional 3 of the 11 were basically Avengers films.

Curious about demographics, cause isn’t Sonic playing more family friendly than Pikachu? I mean Sonic < Pikachu WW is locked but DOM I don’t get.

I think Batman has a better chance to be honest, and I don’t think that’s happening for either.

I swear Endgame is causing expectations to inflate. I literally remember someone saying if a MCU film doesn’t do $1B, it’s an underperformer.

The Batman, Jurassic 3 and Indy 5 in a close timeframe. Of course 4 $350M+ DOM aiming films packed together all aiming for the same 1 month timeframe only equals seuccess. Just because it hasn’t happen yet, doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

To be honest DOM wise I think SM3 is decreasing from FFH, cliffhanger or not.

The Jetsons

I think Sonic could reach 200M DOM.

Why so weak on the legs?

Sonic is 56% General Audience/44% families according to DHD opening day. - Dragon was 52/48 - Pikachu was 65/35 So this is pretty good.

Any chance for 200M for the blue blur?

Really? Thought it was early February.

With Sonic and Spongebob 2 doing good, Paramount may have found it's good luck charm for family films in February. I wonder if Rumble could surprise and make some money.