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YM!

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Everything posted by YM!

  1. YM!
    Hmmm. This might be a lock at number two WW. DOM it has a strong chance with competing with The Batman for 2nd, but I’m more confident this will act as a psuedo-Avengers film.
  2. YM!
    Quick Draw McGraw JabberJaw
  3. YM!
    Why are you defending a multi billion dollar corporation?
  4. YM!
    The Scoob trailer seems to be stalling for some reason as the likes to views ratio is way off.
  5. YM!
    I haven’t seen it unfortunately. Though I stand by that he was better in Onward as well as the movie being better than the MCU Spider-Man films and Spies in Disguise.
  6. YM!
    This is the first Tom Holland movie that he was actually good in. I loved Onward, it’s derivative, sort of meanders and slow at first but it gets going hard, has excellent voice work, and a strong heart and personally one of Pixar’s best tearjerker moments. It might be in my top 10 Pixar, competing with Wall-E, TS4 and Cars 3.
  7. YM!
    The highest grossing movie he has done did under 300M. Granted I think Dune will do much better but it’s ceiling is probably Tron Legacy Numbers DOM unless there’s a lot of spectacle, which I doubt given the source.
  8. YM!
    And Villenueve doesn’t make accessible films for the GA. Your point? In all honesty, Tom and Jerry have a better chance to be WB’s biggest holiday film.
  9. YM!
    Tron Legacy. If the GA isn’t interested, they’re not interested.
  10. YM!
    It opens early overseas though.
  11. YM!
    NGL, Bond moving to November has made me a lot less confident in this being the biggest film DOM or WW. Feel like Strange to Ragnarok Numbers DOM/WW seem right, probably more towards the middle.
  12. YM!
    I’d say they do about the same, and I don’t think Dune is doing much either.
  13. YM!
    HBO MAX or January 2021.
  14. YM!
    Guessing now: Widow opens mid June - 6/19 Trolls 2 opens July - 7/3 WW84 moves to mid July - 7/17 F9 heads to August - 8/7 Mulan takes November - 11/6 Top Gun moves to Veteran’s Day - 11/13 Soul moves to Thanksgiving weekend - 11/25 Eternals opens at Christmas - 12/18 Minions 2 opens at Christmas - 12/23 Raya moves to February/March - 2/26 or 3/5
  15. YM!
    Well I’ll be damned.
  16. YM!
    I still think Onward will underperform though.
  17. YM!
    I guarantee we’ll see a breakout, probably multiple. But I also know there’d be a lot of resistance of closing stuff by certain groups until it’s too late. i haven’t but I don’t think Coronavirus is the main reason if Onward underperforms OW.
  18. YM!
    No. Warner Animation hasn’t had a film over 140M since Batman and we all know WB sucks at marketing for family films. You can say 1M likes/trailer views but look at Pikachu for further proof and judging by a leak, I doubt reviews will be there for a breakout. Or maybe the fact that the last three family films opened to 25M+, one doing a 70M four day, or the fact that buzz was weak from the get go. Yes Corona will impact the box office to some extent in the states but it won’t cause films to move their slates or the pure reason why films underperform domestically. Overseas I can easily understand but even then look at the legs some of the films are having now. Besides if the virus were to outbreak, it’d likely be in the April-May vicinity.
  19. YM!
    Why?
  20. YM!
    I’m not the best at this tracking thing. Hell, North Shore isn’t even in the top 10 biggest theaters of Wisconsin. I think 55M at most could happen if it’s more walk up based but 40M-50M seems most likely.
  21. YM!
    Again I think we’re overestimating the impact of Coronavirus. If Onward underperforms, it’s because marketing didn’t connect, and didn’t look good enough for Pixar. The first warning sign was in January where it failed to make the most anticipated family film list for Fandango in 2020 where IIRC both Dolittle and Sonic made.
  22. YM!
    Warner Animation Group. Onward will at least do 140M, which is Scoob’s ceiling.
  23. YM!
    Scoob under Onward easily.
  24. YM!
    Yeah a 3.5x multiple seems more likely than a 4x multiple for Onward.
  25. YM!
    Onward North Shore Cinema (2 days before previews, 3 before release) Mequon, WI 3/05/20 Ticket Sales: 6:00 - 25/147 6:30 - 0/146 7:15 - 10/301 - UltraScreen 9:00 - 1/146 10:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen Comparisons: 41% of Aladdin ($2.90M Previews/$37.86M OW/$48.24M OW (using the 4 day too as less frontloaded)) 80% of Coco ($1.84M Previews/$40.64M OW) 103% of Hotel Translyvania 3 ($2.67M/$45.33M OW) 124% of The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($2.85M Previews/$57.85M OW) 150% of A Wrinkle In Time ($1.95M/$49.65M OW) Yeah, it’s not looking too hot anymore. Now I know I have no Pixar comparisons other than Coco which works really well, but Wrinkle In Time opened about the same time and I imagine the other animations are about as walk up based. Guessing $45M-$50M OW.
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