YM!
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Everything posted by YM!
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I was thinking more like $500M-$600M WW for HT3 type of increase but idk for now $125M/$450M seems right. Smallfoot needs to gtfo out of September, it can easily turn into another Storks/Ninjago/LOTG, the spot isn't good for WB/WAG. Maybe they can position it in late July or go for broke and do October. Goosebumps 2 isn't helping it. -
Animated films which a chance for $400M: Incredibles 2: 85% Grinch: 40% Toy Story 4: 40% Frozen 2: 90% Shrek 5: 85%
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Only 2 animated films have been officially dated for the Summer: Incredibles 2 which will benefit massively from the yearlong drought of family films and HT3, which can either pull an IA3 (flat domestic, big increase WW) or a KFP (decreases for both).
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Anyone else think Thor hitting $300M is more likely now. The last big live action hit will be IT and the last big family movie and live action film with multi demographic appeal was Homecoming. Kingsman and BR2049 will likely do the same $95M-$110M range.
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Ferdinand will likely appeal to the under 10 crowd and do Road Chip Numbers. The trailers for this suck. I went from this seems cute from the first to this looks like shit from the recent one.
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Hell due to the amount JL and Coco might lose a sizeable amount of theaters too.
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The first one was really great, I'd recommend it, the second one not so much but that was likely because Lord/Miller weren't directing.
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Jumanji has a lot of nostalgia and the trailers get good reactions from what I've seen.
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2. Cloudy 1 and TLM, I'm not staying stick to it, I'm a huge Lord/Miller fan and would see anything with them involved. My guess their next movie will be Flashpoint.
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The trailers for this got worse after each one. Jumanji will likely be the big family film.
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L&M work the best in animation. Maybe they should do more features out of Lord/Miller Productions or be involved in a brain trust.
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I'm only really anticipating Panther, Mutants, and Aquaman in terms of movies from the big CUs. Animated Spider-Man and Incredibles 2 should be solid. Infinity War and Deadpool 2, I'll be there OW but I'm not really excited for either.
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I'm not too excited for either Thor or JL tbh. I'm more excited for Black Panther.
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I hope Lego 2 can go over $200M but that's unlikely.
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WAG is kind of screwed though. They need to rethink their business model especially marketing.
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With a huge yearlong animated drought, there not being a major animated movie since Coco, and Peter Rabbit, likely the biggest animated movie of Q1 2018, not doing shit (i.e. $100M+), I think Incredibles 2 might be able to do $450M+.
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I wonder if Disney if Coco has great reviews and puts in marketing effort, I wonder if they can try to convince IMAX to put Coco in.
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I think 2018 may be the first year we have two $400M+ animated domestic grossers.
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I don't see Coco under 2 screens. I won't be surprised if it got some PLFs like the Lego Movies, DM3, and Cars 3 this year.
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They take away a lot of showings for The Star. Odds are Coco is having a 4,000 TC though so that could be problematic as stated. It's 2011 all over again. However 2018 will be a great rebound. You have 3 films guaranteed over $200M and 2 guaranteed for $300M. HT3 and Spidey won't be slouches either.
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I was thinking that too. Maybe 2,500. But I'm curious about its TC.
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Not to mention, Ninjago might be the forgotten one in comparison to LB and Lego 1 and no one bothered to see it.
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I think Coco is having a 4,000 TC but I wonder if The Star will have a big TC, like 3,000+, Sony's other animated movies this year had some big TCs. Emoji opened in 4,000+, and Lost Village had 3,600+.
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How much theaters is it in though? And I think MLP will attract less than Ninjago.
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WAG needs to get out of that September spot, it isn't working for them unlike SPA, which ironically doesn't have one in one of their worse years.
