YM!

Looks like I may join you in medical school. In another five years.

Who knows? Ghost Story may do $5M OW after all.

If that happens then I think DP2 can increase.

I still don't think it's moving though.

True this is also a problem. And if Aquaman and Phoenix has strong family appeal, the holiday season may be bloody. I am thinking Grinch and Mulan do $300M+, Beasts 2 and Ralph 2 decreases or stays flat from their predecessors, Poppins could either do Sing numbers or Into The Woods numbers. Spider-Man: The Animated Movie on paper to be honest seems like Lego Batman numbers at best but I think Miles Morales might draw in minority families more and a well done script by Lord and Miller might help it outgross TASM2 Domestic but barely (like ~$205M).

Deadpool 2 has very stronger competition than Guardians 2.

BD does $100M+ domestic and possibly becomes the highest grossing comedy this year. Dreams do come true. If the GA gives BD a chance due to glowing reviews, I wonder if other films benefit from a high RT score too.

Tomato Law is king!

Bumblebee is likely doing sub $100M domestic.

Deadpool is one of my favorite CBMs. I just do think 2 will increase. I do think the films will hinder each other but 2 has the potential advantage of being R rated which could increase more of a unique draw this summer. Deadpool 2 I'm thinking $350M.

Nope. Over $400M. Thinking $425M due to the lack of family films not only in the summer but in early 2018 too.

This times one thousand. Another great point by DAR when I get likes I am liking this post.

Deadpool 2 has way more competition with its main target demo having numerous options. It opens the week after Han Solo, Bumblebee takes its PLFs and IMAX, Incredibles 2 may take some teens and families (although the latter may be something like 10%-15% of its audience), and then JW2 trucks it. I am not thinking $500M for Incredibles 2 is guaranteed. I'm thinking the range is $400M-$450M domestic. It has the major benefit of a very weak family market.

In my opinion, Incredibles 2 is outgrossing everything in the summer other than JW2 and maybe IW.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24172-honey-where-is-my-lightsaber-incredibles-2-over-han-solo-domestic/

Deadpool 2 is definitely decreasing from 1. I think we all agree on that. Bumblebee will do $100M at most. O8 will likely be the biggest comedy of 2018. Incredibles 2 will breakout and do $400M+ due to lack of big animated/family films and nostalgia. JW2 will dominate.

Both had a shitton of family films during the holiday season too (November to December).

Peter Rabbit Col. 2/9/18 Untitled Fox/DWA/Blue Sky (March 2018) Fox 3/23/18 Sherlock Gnomes Par. 3/23/18 Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero 4/13/18 Paddington 2 and Arctic Squard open in January while Laika's project is in May. I think it'll greatly benefit due to how barren animation is the first half of 2018.

True. Still think TI2 will finish in the $420M-$450M range.

I wonder how Minions 2 or DM4 will do under $200M Domestic if either has DM3 like reception.

I think DM3's OW might be the highest for any animated film this year including four days.

Me and @narniadis called it.

If there is one thing Incredibles 2 has to it's advantage for $500M chances is that there won't be a big family film in the first half of 2018. Peter Rabbit has the best chance out of all the January to May animated movies to do $100M domestic and that's still a 50% chance. Even for legs it's only true competition is HT3 (7/13) which might do KFP3 numbers and Amusement Park (8/10) which will do around $70M.