I'm glad you asked:
1.) The animation market in early 2018:
Peter Rabbit has the best chance of animated film in early 2018 to do $100M domestic. Gnomes isn't doing over Storks/Underpants, Paddington 2 will still be small, Early Man and Laika untitled film will do sub $50M, and Stubby will be lucky to do $30M domestic. Families will have really nothing big animation wise to flock too.
2.) Pixar's Most Wanted Sequel and Nostalgia
This is the most wanted sequel to any of Pixar's movies. Not to mention nostalgia.
3.) Pixar has quality on their side
4.) Superhero movies are big.
I think 2018 will be the true test. We'll have 10 next years:
- 3 from the MCU (BP, IW, AMW)
- 3 from Fox (NM, DP2, Phoenix)
- 2 from Sony (Venom, SPTAM)
- 1 from DCEU (AQM)
- 1 from Disney (TI2)
Minions was the Shrek 3 of the franchise. And arguably it turned off adults without kids to go see it. DM3 like Shrek 4 barely had anything new to contribute. I had a feeling this would happen since April.
Spider-Man: Homecoming (Thursday previews)
North Shore Cinema (all showings in Ultrascreen 3D for now)
Mequon, WI
7/6/17 - (5 days before release)
7:00 - 124/301
9:55 - 21/301
Bistroplex Southridge (all showings in Superscreen so far)
Greendale, WI
7/6/17 - (5 days before release)
7:15 - 87/156
10:30 - 34/156
Menomonee Falls Cinema (all in 2D so far)
Menomonee Falls, WI
7/6/17 - (5 days before release)
7:00 - 59/163
10:00 - 10/163
Notice: All three of these are Marcus Cinemas and have full showtimes on Tuesday or Wednesday.
That's what I was thinking too. Rabbit will do $105M-$140M unless by some miracle it gets extraordinary reviews but even then opening the week before Black Panther might be a bad idea. However this puts Incredibles 2 in a good position since Peter Rabbit is the only animated family film that could do $100M+ before it opens and the family market would be extremely barren.