Highever

Out of course, but not bad kid.

That 1.2 which goes toward the weekend *I think* may be pretty big in determining the number one for the weekend.

If Rogue One overtakes Finding Dory, can anything stop a Star Wars threepeat at the domestic box office?

You have a very... Distinct posting style. I'm not sure if you're trying to be a caricature, but just, just... Keep it up

I think it's important to note that I am not approaching this from a storytelling perspective. I am approaching this from a canonical or lore perspective. In terms of relevant experience, in what is currently canon, Luke in ESB had infinitely more than Rey in TFA. He did have some formal training with Yoda, but there was far more to his journey than that. He had a few duels with Vader beforehand, and fought others with a lightsaber. Practiced his lightsaber technique, and force abilities. Rey had only picked up a lightsaber once before, and not to wield it in combat. It would be axiomatically ludicrous to criticize Luke's path of development in ANH, as that is the event that sets the precedent. You can say that Luke's accomplishments are more impressive, but that is not what I am concerned with. Luke's major accomplishment before any significant investment of time in force training was in piloting. He was supposed to be a pilot, that was his character. The force aided him in making a shot the script claimed he made many times. If you claim this is more impressive, fine, but that is irrelevant. I will not stand to see Luke's piloting accomplishment compared, apples to apples, to Rey's dueling accomplishment. Rey is categorically the least experienced duelist ever to duel in a Saga movie. Even Finn had more experience than her. Infinitely more to be precise. You try to parallel Rey's path with others, but this is no parallel to be drawn. You make the argument that other feats are more impressive, but that is not what I am concerned with. I believe you highly underestimate Kylo Ren. He is a dark sided Skywalker. Descended from the most powerful force lineage the universe has ever seen. At least twice as many years in training as Luke when Luke 'beat' Vader in RoTJ. Hand picked by Snoke for his potential, called the killer of jedi because he canonically wiped the jedi out. Kylo Ren does not need to be Vader for the outcome to be questionable.

I will reply to this in about 12 hours or so. Be ready.

I accept that Kylo isn't Vader in Empire, but do you accept Rey isn't Luke in said movie?

There is no desire on my part to rehash this. I only do what I must. I will discuss her ability as a duelist. I find her performance in that final confrontation with Kylo Ren to be the most egregious. Luke Skywalker, in canon, had years of experience with a lightsaber before being soundly beaten by Darth Vader at Cloud City. His first feat with a lightsaber that you highlight was in canon replicated by four year jedi younglings. I don't know of any lightsaber feats Anakin showed without training, but he did eventually lose to Count Dooku after a decade of experience in the Jedi Temple. Dooku's experience meant more than Anakin's potential (even with substantial training) as the greatest to ever live and so on. Three years later, Anakin would win. He claimed his powers had doubled. From 19-22. Rey is 19, and Kylo is 29. Luke demonstrably struggled with telekinesis months after being introduced to the force, but Rey would pull a lightsaber away from a telekinetic expert that minutes prior threw her in to a tree. With no experience doing so. Kylo is not as untrained as you might think. He, at the very latest it is possible in canon, would have entered training at 23. Giving him 6 years. As for Kylo's diminished capacity, let's discuss Rey's for once. It seems plausible that being thrown in to a tree and then falling 20 feet or so would impact performance in a duel. So would fighting in cold while being acclimated to a desert climate. Further, Kylo had shown that he could engage in swordsmanship prior to fighting Rey. That he could run, and that he could use the force. This is to say little of Rey having to transition from a staff to a lightsaber with absolutely no preparation. I think there are fans far more knowledgable regarding the SW universe than Kasdan, fans that disagree with the outcome of this duel. It is not my claim that Rey's performance is necessarily a problem. Only that it can become so. Defenders of this scene often highlight Kylo's diminished capacity in pursuit of discrediting the massive success of Rey, but in doing so they argue what is essentially the narrative finale of the film is meant to be... meaningless. This victory is either significant, or it isn't. What was it supposed to be? If it is significant, then Rey's ability requires address.

They both had their piloting accomplishments. In addition to Rey's piloting, she was a linguist *droid and wookiespeak*, a duelist *never handled a lightsaber*, a telekinetic practitioner *never done it* etc... In canon, if Rey were to have done what she had without training, she has far surpassed Luke. Heir to the Jedi portrays Luke struggling with abilities Rey picked up in moments.

Lol, I'm as big a Star Wars fan as anyone else here. But, let's just say, the less I think about TFA, the more I like Star Wars. lol

In my opinion, they have to utilize a mind wipe. ...Questionable storytelling perhaps, but it preserves some Star War canon. I hope that they realize her force display is problematic. I know the internal continuity people at Lucasfilm do. We'll see how much of a say they have. I also know JJ Abrams wasn't thinking of continuity when Rey pulled that lightsaber away from a telekinetic expert.... never having performed telekinesis before.

I've never said TFA was a 'bad' movie. Just that it was unoriginal and uninspired. And also that it may challenge some existing Star Wars canon in the process.

This could turn in to a lengthy discussion, so I will just say further episodes have the opportunity to explain Rey's abilities, or keep her growth consistent. If her growth is consistent, she'd be goku, essentially. This does not mean that these abilities cannot be problems.

Anakin displayed mechanical and vehicular aptitude not dissimilar to Luke in ANH. Rey displayed Force abilities and combat prowess with a lightsaber, untrained.

It's certainly an opinion. I don't think there's much doubt that The Force Awakens was very similar to A New Hope. Abrams admitted as much. As for Rey being... very advanced for someone without much training. This is a very common sentiment throughout the Star Wars fan community.

Some are right to be worried that the specialty or uniqueness of the Star Wars films can be compromised in a desire for profit. But this criticism is far easier to substantiate against The Force Awakens than Rogue One. The Force Awakens is a mechanical, artificial, inorganic, formulaic, even doctrinaire film. Episode 7 could have been anything. It was a near carbon copy of A New Hope and Return of the Jedi. When Star Wars came out in 1977, George Lucas was a visionary. When The Force Awakens came out in 2015, JJ Abrams was a mechanic. It does not help that The Force Awakens did much to call in to question the internal continuity of the Star Wars universe. Rey, for instance, is quite possibly the second coming of Christ, apparently.

My prediction of a 155m OW is looking pretty damn sexy atm.

I would just like to say, wow... Edwards feels like he tried something. Unlike TFA where mechanic Abrams constructed a formulaic fast-paced hit your beats please the masses affair, this feels like it tried to be something special. Regardless of the result, I admire that.

All I'm saying, is that I'd take the over on any of Disney's "projections, guesses, or predictions" until they are actually reporting data.

How recent is this? It's dated at 1:18... and how useful is a Disney prediction anyway? They notoriously lowball their success before delivering an actual estimate.

45.9 in previews? Wtf, am I reading that right?

I figure I may as well give my prediction before the movie comes out. I just have a hard time believing the thought line that TFA will be less pre-sales driven than Rogue One. TFA's uniqueness, I believe, generated unprecedented hype which manifested itself in unprecedented pre-sales. Pre-sales were likely so astronomically high because TFA was getting the general audience to buy in advance. If one posits the same pre-sales to domestic gross multiplier reached by TFA, then Rogue One is probably still the domestic box office champ for the year. Now, I also don't think TFA's multiple was exceptionally unusual compared to something like Civil War, which may bode well for Rogue One. My claim, in its simplest form is that I am baffled that Rogue One's pre-sales can be interpreted as anything but a huge positive. As for a weekend to final multiplier, I see no real need to deviate from the typical holiday release. Reasons to suppose it will deviate are largely based upon the claims that the pre-sales represent an unusually large portion of demand, reasons I believe are wholly incapable of being substantiated at this point. I suspect the industry is lowballing the opening weekend total due to uncertainty, but I also don't want to assume too much variance. So, I will predict an opening weekend of $155m, with a typical multiplier of 3.3. Final guess of $155m, $512m.