REC

I've been paying attention. I think we're heading towards a 350m WW weekend for IW, minimum.

You're assuming 45lb plates. Those could easily be 50lb plates or 100lb plates. Being Thor and the bend of the bar, I'd assume 100lb plates, and a 55lb bar not a 45lb one. So that'd be 1655lbs. Not sure what to do with that number tho.

I see this list as somewhat corresponding to general audience reactions and expectations.

16 plates. That'd be some lift.

So at 12 days IW is going to be right near/at/just shy of 1.2bn WW. Should earn at least 10m Dom tomorrow. It's on the verge of blowing TA and AoU numbers completely out of the water and in record time at that. There's no way this movie earns less than 2bn total. It's heading straight for rarified air. I still can't believe there were people who thought this movie would make "only" Avengers/sequel type numbers, 1.4-1.5bn total. It's not that kind of movie, this is an event. And the proof is in the numbers. It'll be the biggest grossing Marvel movie ever after a mere 3 weeks. It's also going to demolish The Last Jedi. It's just remarkable. That last bit still kinda blows my mind. Yeah I know that could be predicted just assuming 1.5b gross for this Avengers sequel alone and how SW movies tend to do OS when they aren't TFA. But this was a SW movie that brought back Luke and Leia, which on paper is a multi-generational, once-in-a-lifetime event. And they're getting beaten by a (relatively unknown) giant purple space monster.

Your numbers are just insane, as is anyone else who claims this will make sub-1b minus China OS. It's already done 713m OS, without China, after 12 days of release. It's going way past your 900m, and its going past 1b. It will keep going. And that's not even counting China, where 4-500m is easily in play. You are massively low balling it's OS gross. As well as the Dom gross. I really wonder if you guys are paying attention to what's happening with this movie. And your zero-sum game when it comes to entertainment consumption, that's just not how this works. Others have tried to point that out to you. If there are 2 or 3 must-see movies going on at the same time, believe it or not people will go see those 2 or 3 movies. If something doesn't have legs it's because of it's own merits. The same thing can be said for video games, streaming video, or any general entertainment product. Also the idea that Solo will be cutting off anyone's legs (under any circumstances) is ludicrous. Solo has to prove its own worth in the market, we'll see what kind of movie it ends up being. There are reasons to think it might do well. There are also reasons to believe it will be the lowest grossing SW movie ever.

I just want to understand, you honestly think this movie is basically going to do (practically) no better than TA OS numbers even though this movie opened 200m higher OS. It’s just going to collapse, a whole bunch of pent up demand and no legs?

It had a 382m opening weekend and is at 700m OS right now. It’s going well past 1b

2bn is practically the minimum. You don’t become the fastest to gross 1bn only to fall short of reaching 2. That implies no legs whatsoever. Im wondering does it pass 2.5bn or not. Yeah that hinges on China but we’ll see. I think it does 700m dom, 1.3b OS, 4-500m in China. Could be close, fall just short of it or go a bit past it. But right around or close to that 2.5 total.

Based on everything I’ve read about where China could land seems like 450-500m should be expected.

None of this is going to matter much, whether it grosses 670m or 730m Dom. Because it’s OS gross is going to continue to way overperform compared to every other MCU, bringing this movie well past 2B WW. They’re going to more than make up for any saturation that may or may not be occurring stateside.

I think it’s great, and that’s because out of 19 movies it actually does something new and different. Hell, out of every superhero movie ever made, it does something new and different. And audiences see this favorably. The movie is completely unique, and the studio is being justifiably rewarded.

I consider this little “passing of the baton” to be especially meaningless and hollow. In the context of Star Wars the brand and story, it makes no sense. They write their most beloved characters in such a way that they throw away light sabers. They don’t like or respect their own mythology, fans or material. Huge difference between the MCU and Star Wars right now. One is showing incredible respect to the source material, the other is interested in (some form of?) deconstruction of its source material. And I think that’s being extremely charitable.

The numbers are staggering. There's very little weakness to AIW in any country. Every reason to believe it should be huge in China when that happens.

So... could still be 90m for the day. At a minimum very close. =)

Yep I'm aware. I realize it will be a bit of an unusual thing or outlier, but so many days can be categorized as such. Almost anything can be excused as a "this or that special circumstance". I still wanna see those numbers =)

I really want to see the OS Tues numbers, this is still incredibly impressive.

This is why I think something just under Avatar is possible. Maybe it’s not likely, we don’t know the legs yet. But I think they will be great. And very roughly we’re looking at something like: 700m Dom 500m China 1.3bn OS - China Which gets us to 2.5bn. A little bit of over-performance in almost any location could get that a bit higher. 750-800m Dom isn’t impossible. The OS numbers are just insane in certain places. I feel like 2bn WW should be the expectation, but 2.2-2.5 isn’t that crazy either.

Because it’s an event. Not the same kind of event that TFA was, or BP was, but something else. It’s in the culture now, that’s why this thing is blowing up beyond our expectations.

It all hinges on China, whether this movie does TFA or Avatar money. If it overperforms in China, who knows. Would you agree that the safe bet for China is looking to be 200-300m total?

Yes. I saw someone in there estimates it’s got a 200m opener and 600m total run in China. Running the WW numbers came up with an approximate 2.6bn total. That would be something.

It is waaay too packed for a Tuesday. And I say that realizing it’s a $5 day, and this is an event, and WOM is good. Still too packed.

Not that this has anything to do with anything, but I went to see a Quiet Place tonight. Theater was sold out on its AIW showings. My theater never sells out shows from what I've seen. Place was packed with college kids and younglings... they weren't there to see what I was seeing that's for sure. To me this looked like the opening night for DP2, only because I was there for the opening of DP1 and it had the same vibe. Packed, a bit crazy, excited crowd. Basically what I'm saying is... Avatar #2 confirmed.

Even if it doesn't hit it exactly, it's going to be damn close. Like you said, by friday for sure. Maybe it will take a full day on thursday to get there. Ok so... 7 days of release plus previews. I mean really, cmon. Close enough. 900m by end of day Wed. This much money, they're gonna have difficulty counting it up.

Did anyone else just notice that this movie is likely to hit 1bn WW by Thursday? 1 week of release... 1bn.