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DOFP... you mean that movie that was rated 90% by critics and audiences on RT? I'd say that was far more 'essential' to see than this movie. More demand.

God that's bad. That's real bad. This movie is not gonna penetrate 200m Dom. I don't care what anybody says. These numbers don't lie, there's no demand for this movie. Still tracking under JL total for this same point in its lifespan. And there's no reason to think there's going to be some magical boost next week or the week after.

If you mean it benefited from being a holiday, you could exchange JL's first wed and Solo's first mon as being somewhat equivalent in terms of impact. I still think it comes under JL numbers every day and throughout its run.

Boba Fett is also, when you get down to it, a mixed bag as a choice. He was only good in one movie: ESB, and there he had very little screen time. The bad part is we already know how he dies in ROTJ, and in that movie he died in a very clumsy and stupid way. That sucked all the coolness out of the character, or nearly did. And then there are the prequels, which labored over the inclusion of daddy and child fett to the point of boredom. Not saying something cool couldn't be done with him, but they're realistically starting out with about the same amount of desire to see a Boba Fett movie as a Han Solo movie. If they have a good movie and story, if they have a great trailer... sure they could maybe do something with that. But it would have to be one hell of a trailer, to start.

I assume we'll get to see Wednesday numbers pretty soon, I'm curious to see where it lands. FF6 did about 5.8m JL did about 10.45m Given that Solo seems to be under JL overall, I'm guessing it's something like another 7m day. And I don't think Solo will crack 200m Dom. I think this is heading towards the 190-200 range which I realize is a relatively insanely low projection, but I have my reasons for thinking that. And it honestly gives me no pleasure in saying it's heading towards cataclysmic BO failure. If the movie was good I'd prefer to see it succeed on its own merits. Given how it's scoring overall, it should be doing better than this. The numbers are punishing, almost cruel. I wanted LF to realize they made a mistake with TLJ and work on that course correction. But not like this... this is mean.

It's going to take the commercial failure of ep9 for all the naysayers to finally realize that we've been right all along: a giant swath of the GA and casual fans of star wars definitely think that TLJ ended the franchise. There's quite possibly no coming back. And JJ doesn't have nearly as much credibility as the franchise leadership thinks he does. He has a ton of credibility in hollywood, but less than zero among the hardcore fans. The outright failure of a SW movie still doesn't convince these people of what is staring at them in the face. Making ep9 actually work financially is going to take a minor miracle. This time is different. It's a new reality.

Thank you, I've been saying this for a while. I expect 670-680M

Actually I think the #1 reason it didn't work is even more simple: It's not essential to see. There's no real reason for this movie, and no compelling reason to go check it out. If it was non-essential but really really good, they might have had something. But they had maybe the worst combination of all: non-essential and mediocre. TFA, TLJ, IW and BP by comparison were essential viewing to many moviegoers.

If you're going to blame "TOO MUCH COMPETITION" as the reason for Solo bombing, that's your viewpoint. It's half-nonsense, but that's your viewpoint. Just remember it was Lucasfilm's choice to put Solo here and not somewhere else. Nobody held a gun to their head and said Memorial Day or nothing. So if the competition sunk it, this was the ultimate self inflicted wound.

So given that Solo is a complete disaster at the box office, does anyone here have any predictions about what it's 2nd weekend will look like? Honestly curious. Since predictions for this movie are probably out the window and it's anyone's overtly pessimistic guess... Just took a quick look at the JL numbers, the movie did 78m in it's Mon-Sun after that opening weekend, ending at about 171m end of day Sunday on the 2nd weekend. After that it dramatically fell even further obviously. Of course JL did about 93m in its first 3 days, Solo doesn't even come up to that level, but it had a better Monday than JL putting them both at 101m after 4 days. JL total domestic run was under 230m, and right now I don't see any reason to believe Solo is going to reach that high.

The argument is obviously stupid and click-baity. As you point out, its easily refuted by multiple examples.

.... but it is doing 2b ...

Is this really a good solution though? People who like TLJ for what it did will be confused. The hardcore fans won't see it as a serious retcon so much as a giant pander. And how are those fans expected to go enjoy this new trilogy after doing something like that? To them TFA and TLJ will be skippable messes, especially TLJ. There may be some solutions, but nothing is obvious here. Can't just erase TLJ, and you can't ignore it either. Pandering directly to the fanbase is a horrible mistake in the opposite direction.

It's quite possibly too late to fix.

Oh under a billion for sure. To get there it would need at least mediocre/average OS performance, and no reason to think that will happen. Combined with an even slightly depressed US turnout (say its down 10-15% as they have lost the biggest fans) probably looking at 8-900m WW at best.

It wouldn't have to worry about the competition if the movie AND marketing were any good.

It was an unforced error regardless. I personally don't care what Lando's sexuality is, but it made headlines on the evening news the GA eats up leading up to the release. I dread thinking what middle America thinks about a headline like that, heading into a family holiday weekend considering their family movie options. On the surface it sounds weird to most people, and not very family friendly. That's the opposite of SW and Disney as safe, family marketed brands. I dunno. Kasdan Jr. needed a bit more media savvy in that moment. There would've been better ways to answer that question, but maybe he wasn't thinking about any of that. If I was in Disney's Marketing Group I'd probably be pulling my hair out over how stupid it was.

At the end of the day the problems with Solo box office is the fault of Solo the movie. Bottom line: it’s mediocre. That’s not me talking, that’s the critic consensus. Whether you go by RT, metacritic or something else, the best objective analysis of the movie is that it’s a 60 or 70%. Given all of the other options audiences have with their time and money, 65% isn’t good enough. The secondary problems are many. Bad marketing. Bad release timing. Lack of trust/faith in the Star Wars brand. Lack of overseas interest. Bad production, it cost too much to make. Too soon with regards to TLJ. Lack of demand. Lack of contribution to the mythos, lack of stakes. It all adds up. Maybe if the movie had been great, all the other problems could’ve been mitigated. But it isn’t great so the problems start there. You personally might like the movie or think it’s “fun and fine”, but that’s not what objective analysis says. You can reject that consensus if you wish, but it won’t make you right. To Disney’s credit they do have time to recover from this problem with the Star Wars brand, but it will take some difficult action to do the right course corrections. But it’s not impossible. TLJ and Solo have put them on a bad path for different reasons, and right now it’s entirely fixable.

IW headed for better legs than expected. 675-680m on target.

I think Solo might deserve a special ranking: Doesn't matter.

FWIW I do think there are ways for them to do it, but I'm honestly not sure if they are that deft or brilliant. It would take some very careful planning and execution.

Exactly there's a real bad and false narrative going on here. I liked TFA just fine, but TLJ was a giant fail by comparison. Same characters basically. The problem is how they were characterized and written. This is not a left/right issue. I'm liberal, many of my friends are liberal. They see it the same way as I do. TLJ was bad because... its poorly written. Badly plotted, baffling editing choices, inconsistent characters from TFA to TLJ... it's all about the writing and how they were handled. At least JJ was much better at handling characters, but TLJ put the story and characters started in TFA and put them into a dead end. There's nowhere interesting for the 3rd act to go! No reason to tune in to anything they're doing with Star Wars anymore. So if you want to understand why Solo is now flopping, that's it. At least for me and everyone I know. Buncha elite liberals and Hillary voters, Obama supporters. How dare us for properly recognizing bad writing.

And top critic consensus is rotten, 59%.

Oh goodness what the hell happened here? I turn my back for a few hours and just because Solo = confirmed flop, its devolved into racism/sexism/islamic/jewish/white/black/diversity insanity. How bout the movie is just kinda mediocre with no demand and leave it at that?

I'm assuming he meant it needed cool and interesting new characters.