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Lollifroll

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  1. I agree. If Chapek weaponizes Shang-Chi's (potential) failure against future exclusive theatrical windows for MCU films (i.e. Eternals, DS2, Thor3) or alienates Simu Liu, I can't see how Feige: a) doesn't start a cold war via the press and b) threatens (even follows through on) an exit. The time bomb is when the press starts to focus on Chapek's son, Brian, who is a production exec at Marvel (he got an EP credit on BW) and may be in the middle of all this.
  2. If Disney's distribution chief (Cathleen Taff) cites Corona as factor in Onward's performance in the Sat/Sun press coverage, then people should expect Disney to delay Mulan's NA release and probably a rejiggering of their entire release schedule. Even if they take a $50-100M write-down in marketing costs, Disney will see this as protecting their longterm investment like MGM with No Time to Die.
  3. Good point. Aren't a lot of people eyeing 12m in their comps too? Wang's number would indicate that happening then. If Joker hit 12m previews and had similar OD to OW multiples to R-rated tentpole films (+ Venom because it's another Oct opener): It (x9.141) = $109.69M Deadpool (x10.428) = $125.14M It Chapter 2 (x8.673) = $104.08M Venom (x8.026) = $96.31M Logan (x9.307) = $111.68M Range would be $96-125M for Joker's opening aka basically the higher end of tracking.
  4. Fairytale: TS4 was a 3m three days before. 12M previews and $120M opening. Cautionary Tale: Dunkirk had a 2.7m one day before opening. 5.5M previews and $50M opening. TS4 though was a family film with a x10.076 OW multi and Joker seems frontloaded based on everyone's sales data.
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