Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
There's a chance the four out of the top 5 movies of the year domestically are animated movies, I'm serious
1. Inside Out 2 - $652M
2. Deadpool 3 - $635M
3. Moana 2 - $600M (ish)
4. DM4 - $370M
5. Mufasa - $325M
6. Beetlejuice - $300M
That’s only 3, accidentally bolded Mufasa
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1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:
No, unless you consider 2019 TLK remake to be 'animated'
Even if you do the other two were endgame and tros so no dice
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52 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
For two years in a row, there will only be one live action movie in the top 3 domestically. Has this ever happened before?
I mean it hasn’t even happened once before 2023 right
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42 minutes ago, Eric the Marxist said:
Another not animated movie
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1 hour ago, AnthonyJPHer said:
Man… you might be right. Actually it might last until at least next March. Transformers and Wild Robot are in the top ten and carry on until Moana, then Moana probably stays in the top ten until Mufasa, Mufasa stays until Dogman in January 2025, then The Smurfs Movie in February 2025, then I can’t remember what is being released for animation in March
Mufasa isn’t animated though
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6 minutes ago, John Marston said:
anyone noticed D&W has quietly had some of the best legs of any Marvel movie? Even beating many of the origin movies.
Not so quietly I feel like? Big celebrations over its legs from days like 6-14 iirc.
This is a nice Friday and probably sets us up for ~5.7 wknd and O/U 640
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17 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Maybe?
I think it's decreasing 30% on a week by week basis.
At the end of this week it's 4.75 billion Yen.
Week after that ending Sept 22nd +110 million yen to 4.86 billion yen.
Week after that ending Sept 29th+75 million yen for 4.96 billion yen
Week after that ending October 6th +50 million yen for 5.01 billion yen.
That's as far as I see it. Maybe add another week.
Last week was 250 so 30%s would add 583 for 5.18ish.
150 this week (-40%) then 30%s would be 500 for 5.1. So somewhere like 5.05-5.25 I guess
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17 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Extremely rough guess because I haven't kept track in the spreadsheet lately but based on the Friday drop I think it will be less than 4.8 billion Yen at the end of the weekend. Not crossing 5.0 billion Yen yet
Something like 5.2ish finish then?
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13 minutes ago, AniNate said:
TFOne is likely gonna hurt. It has better reviews, will be taking much of the PLF and presumably target audience interest. IT 1 also dropped 50% its third weekend against Kingsman's opening.
If the next week drops 50% would need 33%s from there to average 40. Will be hoping for more like 44.5% and then just need to average 37% forward
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75M week and 40% drops would be ~299M finish. Just outside of DOM top 100, could make it in with good 3rd weekend
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What’s the 7th wknd cume looking like for IO2?
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2 hours ago, Mojoguy said:
Joker Folie a Deux | Updated Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $60M – $100
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-terrifier-3/
Some people may think that what’s funny here is a 67% wide range, but what’s even funnier is setting a 67% wide range and quite possibly missing the real value anyway 👀
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5 minutes ago, Sophie said:
Does anybody know around when deadline typically posts their "PM update", "AM update" etc throughout the weekend?
Also is there a faster and better source for the mid-weekend projections?
It varies
this forum, specifically @charlie Jatinder. R/Boxoffice or his twitter will usually have the info around the same time
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Now thinking this could be outside the top4 for BO Fall (BO fall is less than two months long this year 👀 )
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6 hours ago, Noctis said:
Stupid comparison when it opened at the height of Covid.
Would have easily been a $140m+ opener.
"Easily"
As in, absolutely no shot
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I mean if we want a case for optimism on a animated movie’s legs vs historical expectations, look no further than IO2 😛
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3 minutes ago, thajdikt said:
Shazam, The Batman, Joker, TSS, FFH, NWH, Shang-Chi, Wakanda Forever, GotG vol 3, ASTV, Endgame, Deadpool and Wolverine. Plenty of liked movies the last 5 years.
Endgame FFH and Shazam are more than 5 years ago tbf 😛
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MCU started flopping becasue they put out a bunch of bad content. DCEU flopped same reason. SPUMC likewise. All largely unrelated to each other’s failures.
Joker 2 doing terribly so far is unconnected to any of them — joker 1 perfectly connected to a certain moment that isn’t there are more, didn’t need a sequel, and they made a big anti fan change in direction.
Reeves stuff is separate, will stand or fall on its own (Batman 1 was medium performance and expect th same for bat 2). DCU is a new start, will stand or fall on its quality mostly. MCU future will stand or fall on upcoming MCU quality. Etc etc
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Anyway the reviews aren’t really the big issue at this point. Sales numbers are far more important and far more dire
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38 minutes ago, Mulder said:
Thanks for your very insightful 'um ackhually', reminding me why I've had you muted on here for years.
Is pointing out that something doesn’t actually always happen one way really much of an “um ackshually”??? I don’t really think that’s how that phrase works 😛
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1 hour ago, Speedorito said:
If a safe bet like Joker 2 is floundering then the fall/holiday season might be rough waters. Moana 2 is the only film that’s safe.
Highlighted the real issue with this reasoning
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I am sympathetic to the argument that this isn’t really a normal CBM in terms of genre and may not play as frontloaded. With that said it’s a very bad start. Might revise after 24hr nums roll in but now thinking maybe 75/190/600 or so
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3 hours ago, Bob Train said:
If you count Deadpool it would be that because the expectation was $160-$170m after day 1 but it opened to $211m. I guess you could count NWH too in the same category.
There’s also Venom 2 which opened much higher than expected.
NWH pretty much hit what it looked like after D1. DPW did clear by ~ 20% but I wouldn’t say that’s significant really.
Maybe spiderverse, kind of forget what the start was for that though
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On 9/6/2024 at 3:24 AM, vale9001 said:
Now are we really expecting for this to open under beetlejuice? Pleeease 🤣🤣
I don’t know, are we?
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
in International Box Office
Posted
Holding okay, maybe 700-705. 635-640 so 1340. Will be good for WW top20, just barely. Most similar to CM1.