Cooper Legion

Well IO2 is increasing 10% today, lol.tomorrow we’ll see how much of the strength was weekday specific but I wouldn’t be surprised if the FSS increases too. Hunt for 10M back on

Equivalently, nominal is doing some heavy lifting in the idea that 200M is still a really tippy top megahuge open. I mean, it’s still good, don’t get me wrong. It’s not easy, or common, it’d be only the 2nd one post pandemic. But that’s largely driven by not having almost any huge opener type movies post pandemic. It’s just no longer sufficient to be one of the biggest moviegoing weekends we’ve ever seen, the way it was a few years ago

IO 3day was expected to fall about 40%, that wed sets it up to fall about 40%, pretty normal

Maybe 10M possible after all then

Like when BP did 200M, that was 6th best adjusted OW of all time. Now it’s 26th

200M used to mean truly huge opening business, largely not the case anymore. Both why it’s possible and why it won’t be “industry shifting” if it does happen

Is summer break starting in some regions or something? Looks like th will be flat with last week (and maybe teens drop for wknd 👀)

900+

Tuesday may be just-10-15ish. Still don’t see why it would miss 8.5-9.5 or so

Kinda would have liked 99 oddly. Would have been biggest OS gross without a $100M market by a lot I think. Now will be one of biggest with only one

Yeah I think this is also a contributing factor Still thinking it can end around 670 by tracking a bit better than TS4 on the same calendar but we’ll see soon how it holds up to DM4 vs 2019 having FFH there

Don’t worry BB we’ll just close the cinemas down at 652,270,624

Actually it’s quite reasonable. If you asked people back in 2019 what an Inside Out sequel would open to if it was received very well probably would have got plenty of answers in the range of 125-150 which is like 150-180 nowadays.

Like, you’ve got to have some sense of expectations other than tracking, right? If Moana2 hit tracking at 20M and opened to 40M, that wouldn’t be “beat tracking by 100%, great open” it would be “beat tracking by 100% but nonetheless depressed.”

Don’t really see that tracking has anything to do with it — if something is “tracking” for 50% of where it would open in better circumstances, and opens at 75%, then it beat tracking by 50% but is still 25% depressed relative to that counterfactual. A sequel finishing with something like 42% increase total DOM but only 30% OW vs an already very well-received and legged original is quite unusual behavior to say the least; if Pixar hadn’t been in a somewhat fragile state prior to this probably would have seen more like a 175-180 OW for similar total and stronger D1 sales.

Seems like the best analogy for IO2 in the end will be GOTG3 — depressed OW due to to recent brand weakness, word gets out it’s a return to form, bolstered D4-D14 or so but largely normal run from there

Yeah, summer and opening weekend mean lower Sat jumps ceteris paribus whereas kid skewing means higher

How many times do you plan to repost this delusional garbage only to be disproven again and again? What is the point?

I am well aware of all factors and have taken them into account as best one can with such fundamentally uncertain domains

Fwiw -30-40% is too optimistic but -40-50 a bit pessimistic. -35-45 perhaps

Eh more like 32% wknd drop perhaps, now targeting high 8s midpoint to my eye

Basically no chance to beat 650+/1.5+, cmon now

AQP is a very different kind of horror than hereditary it couldn't survive anything like a D+ (and won't get one)

Thinking finish in 9s for now, could be like 8.5-10+ depending on when it starts to have some more serious drops