Cooper Legion

NWH pretty much hit what it looked like after D1. DPW did clear by ~ 20% but I wouldn’t say that’s significant really. Maybe spiderverse, kind of forget what the start was for that though

I don’t know, are we?

~200

Neither were gotg in 2014, or captain America in 2011, or thor in 2011, or doctor strange in 2016, or Shang-Chi in 2021, or so on and so on. Don’t really need much pre-existing popularity to open 100M nowadays as long as you’ve got a decent movie, good marketing, and not a big build up of brand damage (the DS2-QM stretch of fiascos is a bit faded now, as well as some D+ stinkers, and DPW has hopefully helped some). We’ll see in time whether they can deliver on the first two

Bringing things back to the present, 13-29-37-24 //103

For now marvels is much more the exception than the rule so I’d say the better question is “why not”?

I can definitely see that too, footage reception seemed positive though. If Cap and bolts are good I think 100 is pretty likely and if not… not

Deadline won

Easy yes

I dunno, Incredibles 3? Here’s some that have done it adjusted (plus some close ones that will soon adjust to enough): Rank Film Adjusted OW 2 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 326.7977391 6 Jurassic World 275.188393 7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 272.4982205 10 The Dark Knight 245.1186201 13 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 237.0359738 14 The Lion King 232.5956124 16 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 230.0606889 17 The Dark Knight Rises 224.555417 18 Incredibles 2 222.7955251 20 Beauty and the Beast 216.4412358 21 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 216.0155142 22 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 215.1458777 23 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 213.2186081 24 The Hunger Games 212.8984072 25 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 211.5921332 26 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 206.6532773 27 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 199.1855622 28 Shrek the Third 197.8756496 30 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 196.8920022 31 Furious 7 193.9798723 32 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1 193.5104869 33 Shrek 2 # 193.2848908

Obviously doomsday. Maybe SM4 if it comes first depending on the direction they take and the date

Jurassic will easily have an over 100 3day equivalent, just dunno about actual 3day

Cap4 (praying) Thunderbolts Superman TFF:FS Zootopia Avatar

I’ll take the over on double. Will be even easier by the back half of the decade

I’ll take 2026 with: Fire and ash doomsday animated sequel wildcard although I kinda hope doomsday gets pushed to 27 in which case 26 would be tougher (but doable)

This is actually a pretty interesting question right now. Here’s how I feel about 100M chances this year: Joker 2 2/3 Venom 50% Moana 2 70% Treating those as independent, next 100M chances: Joker 40/60 Venom 10/60 Moana 7/60 2025 3/60

25 vs 35 is one of the biggest gaps between deadline and twitter insiders we’ve ever seen. Curious to see how this shakes out

On first

Hmm, could be a good club

No. Not obviously. Performance of sequels to idiosyncratic lightning in a bottle success have a lot of legitimate uncertainty!

640-650 still seems pretty likely. Maybe like 80%? If it misses could be on either end

12 would be meh, actuals should be more 13-14 though I’d guess Edit: and immediately contradicted by finale mtc1 run 😛 Maybe 12.5-29-37-26 //104.5

Yourself or A troll behind a keyboard

Very close though I think like 245M TLK whereas IO2 will finish ~240M. So depending on exact ests and last little bit of gross here basically too close to call