One claim I’m relatively confident making already is that the midpoint will be closer than either of our doms. Another W for wisdom of the crowd aggregation 😛
I’m inclined to agree for now but I did put the dividing value right there for reference 😛
I def was worse on prev and OW so if dom does work out it’ll be thanks to IM and legs
I said 3-4.5*5-6*4-5, jury is still out
Those geomean to 90 which I still think may be within 15% or so which would be pretty good for a day 1 forecast 😛
There’s a chance it could be under 15!
I don’t think that will happen, we’d have to crash to like, 3.2*4.7 or something? But it’s not totally off the table if reception is horrible. Anemic previews + a calendar configuration with weak Sat and dead Sun is quite a cocktail.
And a quick check in from me on AQM Sacto after porthole noted it as an overperformingnmarket:
Size Adjusted: 4.7M
Geomean: 4.25M
Down from:
Size adjusted: 5.3M
Geomean: 4.85M
Suggests a likely finish of ~3.5M from Sacto as well imo (split the difference and about 4.5M now, down .6 in 3 updates with 5 to go (obviously change in comps isn’t linear with number of updates but often these perform surprisingly close to that)).
I just saw 79k on a spreadsheet but double checking that was a projection rather than actual, good catch.
But looking at BB’s pace on T-1 I do agree with hst spreadsheet entry that it very ended up 70k+. Still more likely then not in my mind, on balance, that AQM will be a hair below at mtc1 final bell but by maybe like 2% instead of 10%. Narrowing from 3-4.5 from a few weeks ago to like 3.2-3.8