Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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FWIW, top adjusted R openings (this is using an est 2024 atp so it differs slightly from the-numbers which is using a (slightly off) 2023 atp): DP1 170M Reloaded 169M (easy 200+ if Fri open) DP2 153M It 153M POTC 150M Hangover 2 120M Amer Sniper 117.5M Joker 116.5M 200+ easily possible for R nowadays if excitement is there (as we may see in July)
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The Fall Guy made 6.47M in the last week, a 25% drop from the prior Th-Wed week (excluding mons because of memorial funkiness). Needs 33.2% drops on avg from here, should be very doable. Even if you pencil in 40% vs bad boys (which seems pretty pessimistic) it could get there with 28.3% avg drops after. I would say more likely to fall in the 95-100 zone than 90-95
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
The heck was going on here -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
35 seems more realistic than 30 for now imo but the very early start for MCU does leave things a bit uncertain -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Yeah I feel I am being a bit optimistic penciling true FSS at 4.2x Th for DPW. For IO I think it can crack 10x, so just huge huge gap there already being factored in. -
As usual with economic stats, good to be careful with interpreting 2020 or throw it out entirely. In this case, of the 2.2B gross for 2020, ~1.8B is from Jan/feb/March pre-shutdowns, so while I wouldn’t take that number super at face value it’s probably reasonably close to meaningful — if you really dig deep and made a bunch of sophisticated tweaks to further correct it I doubt it would change by more than a few %.
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Hmm, I think you’re drawing a good distinction here, but I want to expand on it a bit further. A mini studio that reliably pumps out 20M grossers on a 2M budget may be very satisfied with their ROI and content to make such movies forever — but it doesn’t contribute enough in raw $ for exhibition to pay for wages rents etc. Not a sustainable model in equilibrium. A megablockbuster flop that does 400M DOM but loses money from bloated costs and poor os performance is a massive boon for theaters while it’s out — but it’s not a sustainable model either because studios will not continue making such movies if they’re too consistent money losers. Only way for things to work out is with movies that have good ROI (so studios will continue making them) and high raw gross (so venues can continue above water on various fixed costs). That was achievable easily enough from 1950-2020, but for now… we’ll see
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
IO sales seem… fine. Not clearly indicating doom — also not clearly forestalling doom. Just going to have to wait til the end to find out exactly to what degree it breaks like a relatively original animation vs a sequel animation in a franchise with a bunch of fans. I can see why people who might have hoped for a more obviously strong start would be nervous getting “not that, but if you wait and see could still work out fine” instead. -
I mean, look -- this is the 10th month in a row with no releases making the Dom top 100 (or even top 115). Now I'm not saying you can't celebrate the solid singles and occasional double for what they are, but that is a pretty dang historically notable drought of actual big hits no matter how much you much want to stick your head in the sand about it Very ironic name btw