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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    Btw, a point @charlie Jatinder brought up — how many people went to Endgame previews but are going to skip an MCU OW entirely? 60M is probably just about the floor for any entry from here on out.
  2. Cooper Legion
    I don’t know that the Sacto TSS comp is that outlandish 👀 There’s a real question of how much PA might have affected BW final few days. Though for SC, chance delta depresses that same period depending on how things go.
  3. Cooper Legion
    Anyway these are actually appreciably better than I expected, and have increased my hype. I wasn’t really too excited for this movie before (though I was of course gonna be there Th and expected strong BO).
  4. Cooper Legion
    Guy who has never seen Ant-Man and the Wasp:
  5. Cooper Legion
    Guy who has only seen the “guy who has only seen Boss Baby” memes, encountering another comparison:
  6. Cooper Legion
    So presumably without the sneaks Friday would be near 235 👀
  7. Cooper Legion
    Are there any Tuesday showings for Paw in your area soaking up demand? I noticed some locally and thought it was odd.
  8. Cooper Legion
    Yeah you are a little pessimistic on TFri growth compared to me. Pretty close though.
  9. Cooper Legion
    A lower result would be and should be considered fine, but on the upper end this could finally challenge BB4L as the biggest post 2019 release.
  10. Cooper Legion
    Perhaps. Gotg went +62% on Lanor Day Sat vs +38% on its 2nd weekend but +80ish in deeper fall. Still my going with 30% was already accounting for that a little. Iirc Jat has used +25% in some rough scenarios. Previews as 31% of OD, +25% Sat, -15% Sun would get you 8.4x still. I will be bummed and surprised if previews go below F9, but for a conservative forecast could try 6.6*8.3 for 55.
  11. Cooper Legion
    Having this below JC when it’s PAless was pure nonsense. Anyway, since we’re going to have some very rough Th numbers soon, let’s talk IM. The Th:TFri ratio should be (much) better than BW as it’s: nonPA, new character, and less summery. I think we can see Th/OD around 30-33% (personally thinking lower end). Sat bump will be better because of same two factors. Ragnarok was +42%, DS1 +35%, perhaps let us say +30% conservatively. Then Sunday is holiday, should go basically -10ish. That would give an IM of 8.1-9.1 for the 3-day. Mon would then be ballpark 33% drop from Sun -> 20% of 3-day, so 9.7-11x for 4-day. For now I’ll try 8*8.6 for a nice 3-day.
  12. Cooper Legion
    I guess this explains Endgame’s notoriously weak PS then
  13. Cooper Legion
    Hasn’t looked likely to hit 200M since a few weeks before it came out.
  14. Cooper Legion
    Gargantuan if veracious
  15. Cooper Legion
    Just realized that WB’s highest grossing release (DOM and WW?) for calendar 2021 will be the movie they put out back during March.
  16. Cooper Legion
    Okay, but like, a hook for normal people
  17. Cooper Legion
    From chatter from the creatives/cast, sounds like the Doctor Strange episode (ep 4) is going to be huge. Maybe Wandavision ep 5 level impact (hopefully gets paid off better, lol).
  18. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, it was May 7-9. It got MTC2… +MTC3… +Mother’s day. No market expansion to speak of as all regions were open already. Looking at the Fri and Sat weekly jumps the new chains have a clear impact.
  19. Cooper Legion
    *citation needed
  20. Cooper Legion
    Yep. But worth noting that the PTA in theaters where that was its wk 8 or whatever was so low that the new locs didn’t exactly need huge business to bump it a little.
  21. Cooper Legion
    Doesn’t look like much of a Fri 13 effect for DB2 then.
  22. Cooper Legion
    From that Sat, low 7s
  23. Cooper Legion
    Eh, it’s hard to tell for sure from the outside but I think Waldron was more of the driving creative force?
  24. Cooper Legion
    I was also scratching my head here, but it’s gotta be an autocorrect from simu
  25. Cooper Legion
    I think this weekend lines up more with the Meg -29% weekend in terms of calendar -- but ow sun is often a little stronger than normal sun, so yeah, 25 can be hoped. Re mtc2, hour diff and admits vs gross explain most of it.
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