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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    So I guess Black Widow 2 should be announced any day now
  2. Cooper Legion
    Yeah I mean… on the one hand, obvious TSS ended up quite far from their initial range. But it was also an outlier — generally they have been hitting fairly well under the conditions. But also, obviously any 3 week out forecast in this climate with no sales to go on will be a rough estimate at best.
  3. Cooper Legion
    This is the actual “covid denial”
  4. Cooper Legion
    BOP starting conservative, makes sense after BW. I think the lack of PA here will lead to a more favorable final result vs their initial range — but fwiw the initial BW range of 65-90 means that SC would get a mid 40s OW if it had the same initial tracking:real OW ratio. That would be unfortunate but not cataclysmic.
  5. Cooper Legion
    Which moment?
  6. Cooper Legion
    I guess it will have a nice drop
  7. Cooper Legion
    JC IM would take it to 28.5. Fri PS didn’t seem to be pointing there but I wouldn’t say it’s dead dead just yet.
  8. Cooper Legion
    No. I’d guess A-, could go A
  9. Cooper Legion
    Psssssh, waiting for numbers is a classic tactical mistake. What if they come in at 1.9? Then we can’t dunk on trade projections anymore. If we dunk on them now, that whole potential issue is neatly avoided
  10. Cooper Legion
    Did not like.
  11. Cooper Legion
    Overseas experience suggests it’s still a net negative. Some such people do exist but there’s no reason to expect it will be as large as the people who will stop going as a result.
  12. Cooper Legion
    Probably a pretty similar % of moviegoers are taking covid precautions as of overall population, I don’t really see who there would be a strong negative correlation there.
  13. Cooper Legion
    It’s bad because of covid timing basically. The 60% who are vaccinated do care and are adjusting behavior some (more than really makes scientific sense, but 🤷‍♂️)
  14. Cooper Legion
    Apocalypse cancelled huh? Could be that delta uncertainty lead to people declining to prebuy but it’s not bad enough (yet?) to completely stop those customers from eventually converting to an admit.
  15. Cooper Legion
    Yeah this will be a few weeks after the infection peak — but the reported case peak lags that, the hospitalization peak lags that, and the public awareness peak probably lags that. Sep 17 really would be pretty ideal now that V2 skedaddled but I understand it’s hard to move so close to release.
  16. Cooper Legion
    Definitely not, lol.
  17. Cooper Legion
    Good. Now let’s see those presales.
  18. Cooper Legion
    Hey this is a pretty interesting point actually. Business could very well be more dampened by vax passes +covid conditions on Oct 15 than it will be by vax passes+covid conditions on Sep 24
  19. Cooper Legion
    So, I’m not sure if Disney has the agility for this at this point but Sep 17 or 24 is a pretty good date for this all of a sudden.
  20. Cooper Legion
    Well, October ripples incoming.
  21. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, this is what I mean. People can write whatever headline they like, but it won’t improve (or detract from) actual performance and won’t influence my judgement of the performance. 40M+positive headlines in the end is exact same as 40M+negative headlines.
  22. Cooper Legion
    Hmmmm, I don’t think I agree with that. Hasn’t Th:Fri PS ration been fairly indicative of Th:TFri gross ratio, and therefore of IM, for most of the summer and pre-pandemic as well (adjusting for genre)? I think Sat and beyond PS largely doesn’t matter but Fri PS DOM are perhaps even more important than Th, just like Fri are way more important than Th in China. Depends on the movie though, sometimes Th does act almost like a full OD and sometimes closer to a China Th.
  23. Cooper Legion
    Well, generally the nerds give a shit about the numbers because they’e interesting. But afaik we don’t really care about headline spin, because it’s irrelevant to understanding actual performance.
  24. Cooper Legion
    Th looks about where I have been targeting for a long time, Friday not so happy with. Maybe WOM walkups blah blah, but IM could be more like 9 vs 12ish I was looking at a week ago.
  25. Cooper Legion
    Lol, no way I’m using that shitty ass bar. I wait for around the Monday before release and go based on the presales.
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