Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Definitely seems like a ore of an evening movie, but — what % of JC would it have to run at from here to hit 7.5M? -
Free Guy | 20th Century | August 13 2021
Cooper Legion replied to Box Office Hit's topic in Box Office Discussion
“Old man yells at clouds” This is evidently a delightful little romcom that’s fully original (for those who profess to care about such things). If you have some kind of vendetta against RR then just root for DP3 to miss 1B or whatever. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
We don’t know, but this is the first time they’ve done previews since pre-pandemic too. If they don’t other sources will at least report an estimate. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
3.5-4ish range seems pretty well supported at this point. The True Fri is what makes or breaks the weekend much more than previews, hopefully they’ve accelerated decently. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
You mean... because it's not going day and date, it will be discussed contrastively? -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah, thanks Porthos, a lot of this recent stuff is really more suited for the reopening thread (Or the TSS thread). On a separate note though, I am wondering with the increased awareness of and interest in the buzz thread that we seem to have now (which is not purely a past week phenomenon, it’s been happening since pre-covid imo) if it could make sense to have a dedicated numbers only thread+ another thread for discussion/interpretation thereof. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Now that’s quite hyperbolic. That measure was at 70% for JC and will probably be ~66-67% for TSS — like a 5% drop in comfort. 5% off of 35M would still be 33M or so. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I’ve gotta ask @Shawn, since you’re around — just how much did you guys bring TSS down from 35-60 in the intervening week that us plebs haven’t seen? I understand if you can’t say for proprietary reasons, but with the weekend forecast proper going up in like 24 hours anyway I figured I’d shoot my shot. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
AFAIK, trades generally don’t look at sales much and rely more on the official studios estimate and poll based tracking firms+subjective historical comps. Sometimes it works out well, but usually… not so much. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yes, conceivably the IM could go below 6. It is the first Max release with Th previews, so more uncertainty than usual. SS had a 6.5x IM — but with no Max and radically higher previews it’s not really much of a comp. Also, expected strong WOM May drag the IM higher. At this point I am pessimistic 6/optimistic 8 -
This is the first movie since DS1 which is about a title character that hadn’t appeared or been strongly teased in a prior movie. I have some delta concerns but I think it makes sense that trends and stuff would be low for it a month out because there isn’t pre-existing hype/interest the way that the last… 10? Movies have had. Despite that DS1 opened to rank 64 (modern equivalent 97M). I’m not expecting 97M here by any means, but just to say that it’s a bit of a different situation than we’ve had for the MCU in a long time.
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Not too bad a hit from TSS here. 3M should happen.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
BOP’s long range of 15-35 seems quite solid from the first few days. Only modestly under the 20-40 they had for JC, which seems like the most natural comp.