I think there's a pretty clear connection between Shazam and flash and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it missed 200M Dom
Real proof of CBM fatigue would be a (really probably would want 2) well received ones that should have been huge but do pretty meh. The closest things we've seen to that this decade are SC (delta) and WF (lead actor death). This year gotg, marvels, and aquaman *could* all qualify... But I wouldn't be surprised if gotg was the only one well received, and did well, in which case it will still be unclear heading into 2024/25ish