Joyous Legion
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Posts posted by Joyous Legion
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18 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:
Do we still hope or Inside Out 2 has totally finished D&W chance of being biggest of 2024.
Basically no chance to beat 650+/1.5+, cmon now
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AQP is a very different kind of horror than hereditary it couldn't survive anything like a D+ (and won't get one)
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Thinking finish in 9s for now, could be like 8.5-10+ depending on when it starts to have some more serious drops
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With ~156M IO2 scores 6th biggest 2nd week, as expected. Only behind AEG outside of xmas period
Updated est of mid 90s for 3rd week, guessing it will just short of Av2 for 4th, but top 3 definitely in play. Should definitely surpass Barbie for biggest 3rd week outside xmas
May do 4ths in a bit if I get some time to kill
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Anyway bit weak Th for IO, hop it can come in more like 11.5 but probably looking at 55-60ish
Looking very bad reception for AQP which I think will cost the weekend, but still have it mid 50s so very much a competitive race
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4 hours ago, emoviefan said:
This is going to be an awesome weekend thread. No down the rabbit hole doom discussions about the Box Office at least there should not be.
When horizon+bikeriders pull 10M combined we can have ourselves a nice refreshing 20 page discourse about the death of adult cinema
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Realistically there are no good comps for twisters from a PS length+genre combo. I wouldn’t worry much about comps until we get a week or two closer (this is not to say they’ll necessarily make some huge improvement, just that that’s a defensible prior)
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15 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
I just know he's wrong, but if Horizon: An American Saga somehow opens with $40M this weekend, I'm gonna go out on the street and scream for a solid ten seconds.
No he’s saying that in big cities it looks like a 10M opener and in west/midwest it looks like 30. If you take that at face value then because cities are the main BO driver it would suggest 13-17 or something (I would say more like 8&25 for 10-12ish
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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
All of Americas except Canada
US playing like LATAM while Canada plays like India? A true mystery 🤪
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1 hour ago, Migs20242 said:
Deadpool and Wolverine presales is not on the level of Infinity War and No Way Home.
Yeah, not even on the level of DS2. It’s going to play well below the limits of the R rating so not much need to worry what those are
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Yeah taking everything into account I would probably say Reloaded corresponds to >300M OW nowadays. Now does that guarantee DPW can do 2/3 of that? Not whatsoever. But I think people are a bit overly concerned with the R “ceiling” — the real r ceiling is like 350M or something, it’s not remotely in play here
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38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
MTC 1 is at T-17 level of Thor 4
MTC 2 is at T-15
MiniTC2 is at T-14.5 ishEven more stark diff with bp2. Sacto is at d-26 right now, mtc1 is at t-15
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Didn’t necessarily want to comment but I guess it’s unavoidable now. Very strong “IO2 80M” vibes for me with that 150 expectation.
And I would be very careful using Sacto as your primary market for this — I know we like to joke about black magic but it is still just one city at the end of the day that will occasionally have idiosyncratic behavior, and it’s under indexing there massively right now just as it has since D1. I would guess that Sacto will come into line with more national picture by D-1 or whenever but until then… we’ll it’s a gap worth minding is all
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Thinking 195ish for IO2. Should start getting a better sense for 3rd weekend in around 12 hrs
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24 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
Even if box office nerds collectively and justifiably ignore The Lion King, IO2 taking the WW crown won't be official unless it beats TLK, right?
Beating F2 is all you need to officially take the WW crown since TLK officially isn’t on the animation records category
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Hmm, a Monday~ 1M short of expectstions? Guess I’ll have to revise from 700 to 699. RIP BP dreams 🤪
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6 hours ago, SpiderByte said:
How's Deadpool looking now that we're a single month out?
Very little new information compared to like, D5, still low-mid30s *5ish most likely with some up/downside if reception is particularly good vs bad
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Great performance for Insideriders with 111M this weekend
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1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Not sure about 700M DOM but as this moment it does seem likely to surpass Barbie DOM. Would that make it the #3 move DOM after NWH and AtWoW post Covid?
Gotta pass avatar to make top 3 (nwh TGM) but looks like a solid shot
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2 hours ago, XXR & Friends said:
I would wait and see what kind of damage DM4 does before making that definitive.
We have definitely discussed it and it's definitely possible, no reason to wait on either point. If they'd asked will it happen that would be a different story
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3 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Have we discussed the possibility of Inside Out 2 making $700m Dom? 😲
Would take a 3.5x multi from this weekend on though. Maybe possible?
We have and it is
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134k start for sun, unsurprisingly suggest a finish of around 625k, -15% just like sat.
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23 hours ago, Joyous Legion said:
Yeah Sat start of 151k vs 176k last week. For now penciling ~650k for the day (-17% vs -11% on Fri)
Unfortunately had this one pretty clocked, in at 659 (so far things have been moving very little from initial reports)
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Taking the over on 650 and 850 respectively
South Korea Box Office
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Joyous Legion
Eh more like 32% wknd drop perhaps, now targeting high 8s midpoint to my eye