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Joyous Legion
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Posts posted by Joyous Legion
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15 minutes ago, Potiki said:
I do think streaming (in terms of capturing a very large post theatrical audience) could allow for growth of sequels even if they are not as watched in theatres but can't be sure without something like an Encanto 2 or Elemental 2 to give that validation.
Yeah not an unreasonable hope I guess. Very well legged and received middling gross originals (like elemental and encanto) have more potential there
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2 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:
If originals continue to make Elemental numbers and the sequels continue to be hits (ok maybe not as big as this one will be) then Pixar should be fine. WDAS is in more trouble I think despite getting theatrical preference over Pixar.
Frankly speaking elemental numbers aren’t really fine for originals. The legs saved some face there but 14M tickets is not where it’s at the way Pixar budgets these things. Need to be getting more like 200-350 from originals in order to then lean on their sequels to be big hits, otherwise you’re stuck with the same old stuff for sequels
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2 minutes ago, Relevation said:
3rd??? I think a $50M OD could send it to $165-170M optimistically but $193M+ would be completely busted beyond belief
Whoops I miscounted from the i2 inset being so small 🤣
4th or 5th
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21 hours ago, Legion Again said:
Top 10 animated openings DOM:
I2 183M
SMB 146M
Dory 135M
F2 130M
Shrek 3 122M
TS4 121M
AtSV 121M
Minions 115M
TS3 110M
Shrek 2 108M
would guess 8th for now but 5th possible with some luck
WW:
SMB 376M
F2 358M
TS4 245M
Minions 2 241M
I2 236M
Ice Age:Dawn 218M
AtSV 209M
Dory 186M
Simpsons 171M
Jiang Ziya 152M
I think 6th is pretty likely
2nd and 3rd
19 hours ago, Legion Again said:Had some time to kill so here’s adjusted too I guess:
I2 223M
Shrek 3 198M
Shrek 2 193M
Dory 173M
F2 158M
TS3 155M
Minions 152.5M
SMB 150M
TS4 147M
SLOP 134M //10th
Nemo 129M
Incredibles 126M
TS2 126M
M. inc. 123M
Simpsons 119.5M
IO1 119M
3rd or 4th
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2 minutes ago, pepsa said:
After what we have seen that past days I am very confident in the walkups, they should be fine. I think the CGV ratio is the biggest variance factor, if we get a good and normaly expected CGV ratio it might get close to that 800k or atleast high 700k.
Currently I have penciled 325k cgv finish, but using formula from before we got 00:20 would take it to 340k/765ish. Difficult to see much above that for me for now
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5 minutes ago, Flip said:
Not sure if TLK counts as an animated movie (technically it probably is). If both Sunday and Saturday come in around 745k, then it won't matter whether it's animated or live action
I don’t personally count TLK as animated, but this would need like 850+850 to top it right? Seems unlikely
SpoilerAlthough frankly there are some arguments that my 700-750 call is a bit cautious, I would be surprised to pass 800
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Would have beaten TLK with same date I think (summer break benefit for WThF)
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IM should be in 10s, I will trust rest of math as exercise for reader 😛
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Possibly over 2m 5day should put 6.5-7.5 in play
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MASSIVE CGV Sat start at 176k
Realistic shot at tripling today for 700-750
@Stewart worth the automated tracker I think
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From a fundamentals approach you'd expect like 9.5x, but Fri sales strength suggests it could go for more like 10.5-11x
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1 minute ago, CJohn said:
What were the previews and multi for Incredibles 2? Elemental is original so it is a bad comp. Frozen 2 was a big sequel but that was in November.
18.5*9.9
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WW over 250 I think. Billie looks very likely with something 450 600
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Optimistic 13 40 45 40//138
More realistic maybe 13 38 42 36 // 129
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2 minutes ago, AniNate said:
‘Inside Out 2’ Excites Thursday With Best YTD Previews Of $13M Previews, ‘Bad Boys’ Franchise Crosses $1 Billion WW
https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-inside-out-2-1235973432/
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2 minutes ago, thajdikt said:
Elemental was watched today and that is the worst Pixar movie ever. That will be my contribution for this thread.
Top 3 Pixar of the last 10 years (below the really great ones, Soul and IO1)
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1 minute ago, Eric S'ennui said:
Wait, holy shit, its based on the game franchise
Going on the context I had I figured it was just some original movie that shared the name 😂
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4 minutes ago, Eric S'ennui said:
lol what was Borderlands doing playing in front of a kids movie?
It seemed like a perfectly kid friendly movie from that trailer cut. Is it, uhh... not?
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Okay, gonna be honest here -- I had no idea Borderlands even existed until I got the trailer for it last night but it looked... passable entertaining?
Also didn't know about Wild Robot before that seemed likewise likely to be okayish
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5 minutes ago, Eric S'ennui said:
What have you done?
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Quick, save the thread by posting Pixar rankings
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It's not the NWH thread but weekend threads can get a bit shooting the shit about random stuff while we wait for a real number to come in, so:
Yeah as a purely factual objective matter NWH was extremely well received
The nostalgia of villains+T&A largely carried that, the actual plot was pretty painfully stupid and that's not exactly revisionism plenty of people were saying as much at the time
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7 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
This will do what Doctor Strange couldn't: make a billion
It will do what Doctor Strange couldn't:
Give respectful character development to its main female character and be well received
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So 575ish cume. If SS can come around 5x Fri then 5day of 1.75+ possible. Score ~match IO1 which added 4.2 after 750k 4day. Think it's reasonable to match post ow here for 1.8+4.2=6ish. Possibly higher if holds very nicely but won't ask for it for now
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INSIDE OUT 2 WEEKEND THREAD | 155M DOM, 140M OS | Summer is back, Disney saves the day! | 😂😢😡🤢😱😰😒🥱😳
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Legion Again
Can hope for 2nd weekend like 55-60% of true FSS, so 173 ow ->88-96ish. Over IO1 ow a nice goal